Sunday, December 31, 2006

Thoughts (total returns: $3,980)

Just came back.

As stated, I did not buy on last Fri because of work. I think it's quite important to take a break after every major winnings. And the last week I did earn quite a bit, around $1500. And to think that last week had only 3 days of trading since Monday was a holiday and Fri I did not trade. This was mainly because HSI went crazy and went up and up away.

Last Fri it did came down around 30 points. Next trading day (next wed) in the new year would be tricky. Dow closed negative 30 points too, nasdaq negative 10 points. My feeling is that HSI would undergo a minor correction, possibly going uptrend again in the afternoon. I said this based on gut feeling only, no real basis for it, so follow as you deemed fit, caveat emptor.

So next wed, I would be nimble and see what is the situation like before plunging in. It's good to be very confident before you jump into any trades. Last time, I used to regret buying a stock immediately after I got it. Nowadays, I would be happy when I successfully got it. That's the difference in pyschology, and a great change in my trading confidence.

Longcheer went up and down, in the end it closed flat. Pac andes is the one that really went up a lot, now it's 0.78. Though I own only a little of Pac andes, it was enough to up my total portfolio to reach a rather nice $3,980. That's a really decent sum.

I would probably reset my earnings and base my first total return for the year 2007 on my existing portfolio of stocks and exclude my past earnings. This is to allow me to have a better idea of how well I'm doing for the year 2007 and to set some concrete goals to meet in the coming new year. I'll make a major revamp of my spreadsheet too, particularly the part about the min and online commission because I always find that it takes up most of my adminstration time after market closed.

Here's a sneak preview of my new goals for stocks in the coming year (i'll give a detailed one when new year comes): $1500 per week, or $6000 per month.

It wouldn't be a goal if it's not a challenge. The main idea here is not so much to reach the goal but to achieve and learn while trying to reach the goal. The journey matters here because i can foresee I'm doing this for the long run, not hit and run. So, the trading skills, confidence and discipline have to be cultivate now while I can still afford to lose. Given another 2-3 years, I don't see how I cannot improve to reach even higher finanical goals that the one stated above. But the last thing I would want to do now is to try to reach that goal at the expense of me trading everyday!! It's both counterproductive and harmful. I don't have to trade everyday, I must only trade when there's a high chance of big profit and a small chance of acceptable losses. That's good risk/reward ratio. Furthermore, if i take care of my losses, I'm sure the profit would take care of itself too.

Enough for now, a wonderful trading year for me in 2006. Opened an account in april, lost 18k and made it back (and more!), refined my warrant trading system. I'm looking forward to trading in 2007 already!

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Total returns: $3,860

Hsi is crazy!

I think it increased by around 1000 points in less than 1 week, and breached 20,000 for the first time in its history!

I think if someone just call warrant last month, can become half a millionaire, if not a millionaire already. Goodness! I wonder how long can this party last? For me, I'll be contented to buy and sell intraday rather than risk it by holding overnight.

Longcheer did cheong today, to an intraday height of 1.29. Really hoping it'll break 1.37 barrier again and on from there on.

I re-checked some of my past earnings. Because of the way I do intraday trading, I conservatively calculate my earnings to be lesser. This is due to the fact that vickers will consolidate all the trades for a particular stock/warrant for that day to calculate the commission. Because I purposely did not consolidate the commission and calculate them individually, my earnings is lesser than the actual one. How much is the actual one? I would only know when they send me a contra statement with the contra gains in it. Typically, I miscalculated by around 30-50 dollar per day, so that's an extra 30-50 odd dollars per day to gain.

Tmr I won't be trading because I've got work in the morning. I think it's alright lah, can't trade everyday. Might become overconfident and not cautious anymore. Might be a good break after consecutive days of trading. If I'm back in the afternoon, I might look at the market and decide from there whether to enter. As I've said, probably not.

Nikkei, sti and dow show signs of weakness already. Losing steam, probably. Another small correction is healthly and neccessary before they run up again. The scary thing comes when it still cheong tmr and next week, then a really really serious correction might set in. Everyone guessing when it will be, so better not be so bullish and sell when signs of major weakness sets in. I'm holding plenty of cash now, only a few stocks in hand. Currently waiting to cash out on longcheer, sitting on quite decent profit as of now. Not selling because longcheer charts looked very very favourably now. Am looking at continuing rise in share price in the next couple of trading days.

Excellent trading for this month. Developed a rather successful system in trading warrants. Wiped off my losses. Now looking forward to my first 5k earned from the stock market!

Total returns = $3,860

Made 900 today on call warrants

Dow super strong last night, up by 100 pts! Nikkei opened green today, sti too, so my bet is hsi will also surge upwards, though I think the surge will be lesser than yesterdays.

So around morning, I bought a call warrant again. Internet a bit slow today though I can use my hsi live charts, at least won't be trading blindly. Entered one warrant at 0.595. After some time dropped by around 8 ticks or more, dunno why. Perhaps some computer problems or so, I immediately seized the opportunity to buy in more. BUT THE COMPUTER FROZE!! the end up again at 0.575, so average down. I usually dun do averaging down, because it's like putting money in a losing trade. But since dow closes so strong, I'm quite confident so I went in. The first 0.595 is for testing waters only. Normally if the direction I bet is correct, I would buy another batch at a higher price.

Anyway, hsi very steady today. Even though stochastics drop a lot, hsi just budge a little southwards. So, I went breakfast and read newspaper, confident that it won't swing sides violently. Again, after around 1230, I decided to cash in because nikkei doesn't look very strong. STI also floundering down, so to be on the safe side, better sell all my call warrants. Made a cool $900 today for half a day's work.

Seems like my system is working very well on warrant trades. Since 19-dec where I had a slight loss of around $160, been earning consistently till now, losing another $50 yesterday. Total warrant returns was a staggering $5400 from 29-nov till 28-dec. Before anyone think sure make money, take note the worst I lost from warrants was 1400 plus plus. If you cannot take the big losses, warrant trading can be very stressful.

Probably won't enter again in the afternoon, earn enough for today. I'm just waiting for my longcheer and pac andes to explode. Longcheer seems to be on rise today, probably due to technical reason, not news-induced. Pac andes rise is because china fishery, their subsidiary company acquired 2 more ships (i think) for their fishing business.

I'll update more tonight. As of now, total returns is a very good 4k.

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Made $650 today, total returns: +$2460

Is it mercury retrograde now?

Taiwan's earthquake affected quite a number of countries in Asia. It's almost a cyber earthquake here because we can't access most if not all the us based sites. It's pretty okay in the morning but around mid morning, everything just comes to a standstill.

Imagine if I had bought huge amount, I'll have died a heart attack. Today hsi cheong like crazy, +400! It opened 300 up already, what a furious gap up after a long break. Luckily I bought small amount of call warrant (half my usual amount to test test), and even before market opens, I made a paper profit of nearly 1k already. Little did I expect the live charts for hsi to be down, so I didn't sell it because I knew it will go up further.

When all the live charts got cut off, i'm basically trading blindly. Since I've made enuff for the day, I decided to call it quits rather than risk trading without any aids. I cut off around 1230pm and quit trading for the day. Capital preservation is more impt, esp after a huge rise, who knows if it may downturn.

But it didn't, it's stronger than I thought. Could have made another 1.1k, but alright lah, too big a risk to trade blindly. I lose around $50 commission by the time i sold another warrant around lunch time. Too risky cos by then almost all connetions went to turtle speed. Alright lah, overall each day above 500 i happy already.

Not a bad day, hope tmr the website is working fine. Dow seems very strong tonight as of now, +70 now.

Total returns: +$2,460 (longcheer cheong slightly)

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Total returns: $1,280

A terribly boring market.

I spent the day posting in cna forum and decipher's website. Otherwise, how to whilst the time away? Can't trade somemore cos hsi not even open.

DBS didn't barge a bit. Yesterday's news not powerful enough? I don't know. Hengxin, doing coaxial cable for telco companies had a big runup today. Longcheer too. Maybe the long awaited 3G annoucement is coming, perhaps tonight? I hope so too.

The rest of my holdings, some gained some lost. But overall made more because longcheer went up more than the rest which dropped a bit. Heard UBS downgraded Yellowpage. Not surprisingly. Yellow page dun have good earning prospects if u ask me. I would sell when I'm in need of the money (which is not much, considering it's only 1 lot).

Heard of this company called armstrong today. Very strong concrete earnings prospect, been increasing in profit margin and gross profits for a couple of years already. Dividend policy is 50% of earnings. Short term trend looks good, long term not so clear. Will be placing armstrong in my watchlist to check out first.

Nowadays not looking to add on to my stockholdings, only looking to sell sell and sell.

Dow futures stands at -83 now. The most negative i've ever seen. I wonder what's the bad news tonight. I'll see in the morning if dow closed negative too. If nikkei and sti also negative, wah, good! I go cheong call warrants, betting that hsi will rebound for the last few days of 2006.

Total returns = $1,280
(mainly from longcheer runup)

Monday, December 25, 2006 not open today

Hmm, just bored that today the market is not open.

As a result, I did some management of my portfolio spreadsheet. I did it once already so this is just some minor adjustments to the calculations etc. I believe that good records of portfolio is essential not just for accountability but it serves as a historical profile of the stocks you own. Maybe I should include why I buy the stocks and why I sell them. That will record the psychological aspect of the trading/investment moves as well. Hmm, I'll consider revamping again for 2007.

I decided to include dividend calculations into my total returns to give a clearer picture of my whole state of affairs. In the past, I did not include it because I wanted to focus mainly on capital investment, not income investment. The dividend that I get from holding stocks should be the bonus that I get from capital appreciation of my stocks, not the main thing. I still believe in that too, after my Robinson dividend incident, haha!

Oh, just read about the news that dbs was awarded retail banking license in China. This is going to affect the shares price positively because if everyone in china just put 1 yuan, that's going to a hell lot of deposits that dbs is going to get. If I didn't remember wrongly, 9 other banks got in. DBS, however, is the only singapore bank to get in to China. Since DBS already as big presence in hong kong, I think with the addition of China, DBS shares can have the potential to hit sky height and overshadow its rivals. Excellent blue chip to hold for long term, if you have the moo-lah. I just checked, last closing price of mother share for dbs is $22.2. To own even 1 lot I would need $22,200. I'm not rich, how to own it??

So if I want to ride on this what should I do, buy warrants? But warrants expire in months times, so I cannot ride fully on the shares, and no dividends too. I guess I need to put in most of my savings into shares. It's a hell lot better than the miserable interest they give you. Invest in maybe 1 lot a year? That will take a million years man..

I checked that last dec, the share price for dbs was 16.5. If I invested 1 lot last dec, I would only have gained 5700, excluding dividend. That's a cool 34.5% ROI. However, I don't think its worth it. $16.5k tied up like that is too much. Sometimes it's not the ROI that matters but the absolute amount. 16.5k tied up for one year is 16.5 k tied for for one year. Unless I have around 3-5 lots, otherwise 5700 is too little.

Trading warrants, abeit more risky, the returns can be much more for less capital held. Just take a look at my warrant trading for the past one month. I've lost money and gained money, but overall my returns from warrants stands at $3.9k, with no capital held up. Of course, there are some sleepless nights but that's all part of the game. And I'm only a newbie.

I think it's possible to do both. Since investment requires your capital to be tied up while contra-ing warrants do not, I can actually do both at the same time. But before I do that, I really need to build up my investment capital, otherwise it'll take far too long to see good returns. It's a much more balanced strategy in the long run too.

What do I suggest?
1. Hold plenty of cash
2. Wait for major bear market/ or smaller bear raid
3. Buy good quality bluechips (meaning less susceptible to geopolitics, oil, natural disasters) - banking stocks is clearly a good one, together with F&N (deals with consumer products, reit, what else haven't they touched?)
3a. Can consider ETF also, not cheap but can buy in 100 lots, still very good.
4. Keep on accumulating, holding for super long term
5. Hope to make it big before you age and return your IC

The rich really gets richer, I don't see how they can't get rich if they anyhow whack blue chips in huge amounts. To hell with meritocracy.

Total returns (includes dividend from now on) = $890

Sunday, December 24, 2006

Reflections for the week; total returns +$640

Sidenote: It was well worth the 1.4k for the christmas party. $$ is not everything. I believe in trading, skills are important for the long run. While you can lose money, you musn't lose your confidence and we have to keep on honing our skills.

On hinder hindsight, I think it was wise to sell off the warrant. Initially my plan was to hold it till market reopens on tues. I think it was not a wise move at all. 4 days would have passed, and the time decay of warrants would not make it advisable to hold on. Besides, there is too much uncertainty over 4 days that can happen.

Word(s) of advice:
1. Learn to survive the market first
2. Make small profits
3. Make huge profits

I believe I'm somewhere between 1 and 2 now. I survived the May crashdown, and it didn't affected my interest in stocks. I lost 18k and comeback again, learning and reading up to hone my skills, making small profits and learning to discipline to cut losses and capture profits better and better. So, I guess i'm on the right track. Big profits can come later, now i'll be contented to make small ones along the way.

Dow didn't turn out too well on fri night, it closed negative at -70 pts down. Nasdaq dropped 14 pts too. It's actually a good sign. What I hope to see is that when hongkong market opens on wed, it drops substantially to support level. Then I'll buy in, knowing that it will rebound before reaching new heights again before the end of the year. STI too, I think. Problem is while sti opens on tues, hsi opens on wed. One day of difference can change the sentiment and the plan might not work. We'll see how this develops when market opens on tues for singapore.

Total returns so far: + $640

Friday, December 22, 2006

Could have made 1.4k more!

Didn't expect hsi and sti to close strongly today.

On hindsight, I shouldn't have cashed out on my call warrants too early. Because it rises up to 0.71 by the time the market closed. I could have earned another 1400k if i cashed out later. Aiya, sometimes, I think I should become a full time trader instead of working. There are easier way to earn money than to work for people. This is a career move that I am thinking about lately.

The rest of my stocks is as usual, not moving much nor dropping. Longcheer stays at 1.9. Pac andes dropped a bit to 0.76, still okay, as long as it doesn't fall below 0.72.

I don't have my spreadsheet with me now, so I can't calculate my total returns. I think a slight drop from my previous report. Hiaz, still a bit sore about my would be earnings...

Made $400 on yesterday's call warrant

Today is half day trading for me because I need to prepare for a christmas party tmr. Dow didn't close positive today, nikkei looks weak, trading range I think. Hsi too, go up go down.

Actually, today would be the perfect day to trade. Range trading is good for me because I think I've trained enough to recognise the top and bottom. Usually, in days like this I will buy in series of 10 lots when i see the stochastic is reversing from a minimum. This is to catch the bottom of the curve. If it drops, I'll buy another 10 lots more. But before that, have to check that rsi and ema is reversing trend too, otherwise wait further. Once the curve truly rebound, should be able to see ema U-turning, rsi should ideally be low but stopping its downtrend and stochastics U-turning too, with the red line above the blue. Selling is the reverse.

I'll buy in and sell out a few times to make small amounts. But today, I cashed out all my call warrants just in case. If there's going to be a santa claus rally I'll buy again, I think I need to be safe than sorry. My hard earned profits need to be protected first and foremost.

So far, all my trades are positive. No losses consecutive for 3-4 days already. Actually this is not very healthy because I might become overconfident and ruin everything. As in stocks, it's always good to have small losses with big winnings. Yin and yang.

This Dec I traded 25 times (in and out). That's a lot, if you compared with previous months where I traded at most 5 or 6 times. I think fundamentally there's a change in the way I operate. Last time I was investing without knowing what I'm doing. Now I was trading with a clearer mind. It's good to have both, because I recognise that investing for the long term will reap more returns and is less volatile than trading. I'll work on it.

Today I'm holding no warrants, and 3 stocks. Total returns as of now: +$580. Loncheer should close higher than now, which is 1.19. Pac andes, hopefully retain the price now at 0.765. Pac andes might undergo window dressing because I think it's held by quite a no. of big fund houses. We'll see when trade starts on Tues.

Oh ya, hsi will open on Wed instead. I'll update more when I can.

Total returns: -$10

Dow as of now is at -9. I think it might close -ve tonight but we'll see how it might affect hsi tmr.

One camp is saying that hsi is consolidating now and preparing to rebound anytime soon. Another is that hsi is going to go down. Aiya, for me, no point anticipating, we'll know in a few hours time. I'm still holding my call warrants. If tmr I can't sell off, I'll hold it till market opens again on Tues (Mon is Christmas Day). I should expect a strong rally next week if our dear capricorn effect really works. Hmm, tmr afterall is a fri, and we all know what happens on Fri, esp on a long weekend.

Because Longcheer closed badly for this market day, it dragged down my total returns to -$10. Okay lah, I should expect it to reach 1.35 and above soon. Probably in another week or 2. China is going to announce their 3G plans and I really hope longcheer will cheong because of that.

Oh Pac andes rise a lot today. Some say it's window dressing for funds so that it'll look good and they'll get a fat bonus as a result. Might be looking to add more, if necessary.

Tmr is half day trading for me. Need to prepare for Christmas party on sat. Let's see if I can sell off my call warrants before lunch. If not, I might have to keep for some time. I pretty confident hsi will reach 19400 by march next yr though.

Good luck tmr!

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Fengshui predictions for stock market 2007

Feng shui investors brace for year of fire on water
Thursday December 21, 1:34 am ET
By James Pomfret and Ian Chua

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Forget fund flows and profit predictions, 2007 is about "fire sitting on water." Buy oil, avoid metals, and don't get your fingers burned.

Feng shui experts steeped in the ancient Chinese knowledge of geomancy, or natural energies, see a turbulent year ahead for both markets and mankind.

"The elements -- they are in conflict," said Raymond Lo, a practitioner for more than 10 years, whose office close to Hong Kong's Victoria Harbor is considered a repository of positive feng shui energies in this hotbed of capitalism.

"Because it's fire and water, and they're not in harmony. So therefore next year in January, it's not so peaceful."

Lo expects a stock market boom in the first half of the year, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (HKSE:^HSI - News) likely to soar over 20,000 points, creating an "illusion of optimism" before a steep drop. The market is up 30 percent this year at 19,216 and, along with other Asian bourses struck record highs in 2006.

Hard data on the accuracy of feng shui forecasts and their performance against analyst predictions is hard to come by, but Hong Kongers devour books by the city's celebrity feng shui masters.

"I believe in it a lot," says retail investor Monica Tam, who reckons that in auspicious periods she can buy stocks "with her eyes closed" and still make money.

"Before I didn't, but with each year's experience and by seeing feng shui masters, I changed my mind."


Another master, Edwin Ma Lai-wah, says investors should focus on stocks harnessing the elemental force of fire, and avoid those vulnerable to it.

Oil, given its combustible nature, will be a gainer. Construction and property firms are also in favor.

"Oil prices will rise at least 5 percent, because the fire will be fierce, and other sectors related to fire will also rise," said Ma.

Metals such as gold, steel and zinc, top performers this year, could be tempered in 2007.

"The fire will dominate them," he said, along with sectors related to gold, such as financial and banking stocks.


Fire is the 2007 force for master Lai Hon-fai as well, but he says wood will moderate the destructive effects.

"The wood element will have a secret effect on the fire by adding prosperity. So on the surface things might not be as good as this year, but there'll still be relatively normal growth."

He says the U.S. benchmark Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI - News) could drop by 5 percent, with most volatility likely in May and November.

Years ending with the number seven have a track record of stock market disaster, Lo warns, referring to the 1987 Wall Street crash and the Asian financial crisis that struck a decade later.

"You have to be very careful, the worst could be October ... but it won't be as bad as 1997," he said.

On the political front, Lo expects strife in the Western world, but few flashpoints in Asia.

"There will be turbulence, there will be fights, there will be explosions and clashes. It's also a year of evolution."

"Asia is comparatively stable, the bad energy is in the North next year, so therefore America and those (Western) countries will more easily have natural disasters and other problems."

He also believes a "sick" energy might arise.

"Something we have to be careful of is sickness and health problems. Epidemics could come. We have to worry about avian flu, that kind of thing."

Another profitable day (tiny tiny one though)

Not sure of today's direction in hsi.

Dow closed slightly -ve. Nikkei opened weakly but in the green. So I stayed on the sidelines in the morning before I went in for small amounts of call when stochastics are at the bottom. Market really is not strong. I can see that based on the stochastics alone. Usually when the stochastics u-turn from the minimum the stocks will go up quite fast, or at least substantially. However, today the hsi didn't rebound strongly, at most up one or two ticks only. Sometimes it even diverged from the stochastics i.e. stochastics rebound but hsi went down slightly.

Most likely the market is still reeling from the thai joke saga. I read in today's news that 1997 asian financial crisis is caused by thailand also. Wow, is historical events happening again? Mostly likely not, I think.

Made a tiny sum of 45 today on entering and exiting call warrant twice. Wanted to short the call warrant but don't dare to. Maybe one day will try. Past shows that I'm very bad at shorting. 100% lose money. Hmm...I'll work on it because I think a savvy trader needs to trade both sides of the market. If the market can rise or fall, why should I just bet on the rise?

At least now, with the help of warrants, I can short the index. It's a less risky way than naked short because of the need to cover on the same day with naked short. For put warrant, I can at least hold till it expires, if neccessary.

Anyway, I'm still holding onto quite a huge no. of call warrants for hsi. Expiring in march, betting that it will reach 19400, which isn't too far away. I'm holding on mainly because I can't sell them before the market closed!! Hiaz, but anyway, I think I should bet on the capricorn effect to happen next week. So, we'll watch and see how tmr.

I'll update later again tonight when the market closed. I can then do some analysis too.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Removed a lot of stones, now can fly! Total profits: +130

Today is an exciting day for me!

Here's the good news:
1. I managed to break off my lousy stocks like fabchem. Sunshine is not lousy, though I don't really like the slow action so I sold off all of them. ALL of them. I felt much lighter now, haha! It didn't matter that fabchem and sunshine (esp sunshine) rise up after I sold. Actually, I think after dealing with warrants for some time, my reaction is too fast! I recognise all the signals for rebound, but forgot that stocks, unlike warrants, react over a longer period of time. Stocks will take days or weeks to finish off a pattern whereas warrants will all happen within a few mins. So, I think after looking at the signal for rebound to sell, I reacted too fast and forgot I'm dealing with stocks.

I need to remember this point!

2. I made a hefty 1.8k today by trading call warrants on hsi. The holding on of the call warrant yesterday turns out to be a blessing in disguise after dow closed strongly in the green, followed by nikkei's strong opening in the morning. I added even more first thing in the morning. It just shot up and up, even before the market opens for hong kong! I entered and exited around 4 times, looking at the momentum for my signal to buy/sell. Each trade can be as little as $40, but it's okay, because when I'm buying or selling, it dosen't matter whether it's high or low. If it has a high probablity of moving in the direction I want, I would buy, even at a high. When it loses steam to move forward, I would sell.

At then end of the day, I was feeling satisfied by my own trading. This is the best trading day I've ever had. I had the wrong mentality, clear thinking of what I want, strong beliefs followed by fast action. Splendid!

Now, I have only 3 stocks left, pac andes, longcheer and yellow page. I'm currently sitting on a total profit of +$130.

Pac andes - I won't be looking to sell it anytime soon. I think it has good fundamentals, and anyway, the short term momentum for this stock suggest more upside to come. I'm holding a measly amount of stocks for this one too.
(not selling, waiting for more upside, waiting for opportunity to buy in more too, currently at a loss)

Longcheer - Not selling too, perhaps until after they posted their quartely results in feb next yr. China gng to award 3G license and this stock will stand to benefit. Anyway, good fundamental backed by strong earnings too, sitting with huge cash reserves with no debts. What more can you ask?
(not planning to sell, waiting for more upside, not gng to buy more at this stage, losing a bit, at the margin of making profit, depending on daily swings)

Yellow page - one of the first batch of stocks I owned when i started in april. Deep loss because i bought near all time high. Not gng to see yellow page reach this high anytime soon. Not much confident in this stock, but not gng to sell since I carrying 1 lot only. YES, 1 LOT! What am i doing with 1 lot? You must travel back in time to ask me then.
(not planning to sell cos no point, i don't like their business and prospect, but since they give me very decent dividends for the measly 1 lot that i hold, i'll keep this for the time being. How much lower can it get anyway?? Definitely not planning to buy more just for the dividend, really no confidence in yellow page's future)

As for tmr, perhaps put warrant. All depends on dow tonight and nikkei in the morning. My feeling is to bet on put warrants because dow don't look very strong tonight. What's more is that hsi and nikkei rebounded so strongly, sti too. So maybe tmr will be coming down a bit? Hmm, we'll know tmr.

Total profit: +130
(looking at much more upside to my total profits after selling off my laggard stocks. Longcheer rebounding also)

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

total loss - 4.2 k

Pui pui pui!

What a lousy trading day! Deciding on a put, before it drop, i sell at a loss. Went on to buy a call. Before I say "ah!", drops down to make a substantial loss. WTF!

Some days like these I really hate myself. How come I don't have the mental clarity and discipline to follow my beliefs? Sigh.. Have to see all these as a lesson. Don't EVER trade when you're not feeling up to it.

I managed to sold half of my sunshine holdings, making a slight loss. I think I'll carry on my selling plan. No point holding on to lost hope. Longcheer and fabchem didn't disappoint me - they just keeping dropping. They really dragged my total returns down a lot.

I'm still holding onto my call warrant for hsi. Today dropped like mad dog, -230 pts. STI also dropped like seow, almost 65 points down, nikkei dropped 180 points. I hope this is a correction before the final runup for the so called capricorn effect. My call warrant expires in feb 07, still have 400 more points to go for it to be in the money. I think it should do fine.

I just hope tmr will be fine too. Doesn't look good, knowing that thai stock crashed almost 10% they even have to stop trading. Europe also not doing badly. Dow futures stands at -34, a very bad sign. Hmm...all the best for me!

Total returns stands at: -4.2 k

Total returns: -2 k, made $140 from call warrant

I bought small amounts (half my usual lots) of call warrants for hsi today. This is because I need to go out in the afternoon so it's quite risky. I bought it because dow on fri is quite strong, followed by a strong nikkei opening.

Made around 140 today. Could have earned lots more, around 3 times more? But it's alright, I can always earn more another day. The market is always there. No point rushing.

STI keeps breaking new high, hsi also doing better. Been increasing for the past few days with no sign of slowing down. Dow is quite strong tonight as of now too, so my guess tmr is that hsi will keep on increasing.

Scary, come to think of it. My feelings is that a correction is due any time soon. The question is just when? I think the best way to trade is not to anticipate. When it comes, it'll come. I'll react accordingly. I think not these 2 weeks, perhaps after x-mas next week?

Sunshine and longcheer is dragging down my overall profit/loss. Fabchem too. I'm quite determined to sell off my fabchem, it's getting very irritating. When we're having a bull run, these laggards keep shuffling their feet and not cheonging. Imagine when we're having a bear raid!

Longcheer i'll keep at least for this month because of the pending 3G announcement from China. Besides, DBS small cap stock selection also included longcheer, so I think it could be a safe bet for the time being. It's fabchem i'm particularly worried. Longterm trend and short term trend all point southwards, so why am i still holding??

Sunshine announced a land acquisition tonight. I hope tmr it'll open strongly enough for me to sell. It's trending downwards from the peak position now, so any rebound is a good time to sell. Better not hope for a cheong anytime soon and tie up my money.

It's a freaking dangerous situation now with all the indexes worldwide reaching record high day after day.

I don't want to be caught like in May. Once is enough.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Total returns: - $640

I kept my promise, did not buy anything after the last blog posting.

STI almost can't make it. Heard its mainly supported by singtel, otherwise wouldn't not rise as much as today. You can see that the gain/lose stocks is not proportional to the gain in sti. I guess mainly the stocks gain are from the big caps one, not china stocks. Certainly not china stocks. Most of my china holdings are all in the red.

Sigh...see this fabchem and sunshine, really gets me worried. Esp fabchem. Keeps dropping and dropping. I hope a merger is on the way, because if not, this stock will hit 0.4 or even 0.3 soon. In a mild bullish run like this, it drop so much. Just imagine a real bear. Fabchem weekly is on the downtrend. Daily looks just as grim. Stochastics nearing bottom. MACD, momentum all down. Better don't hope so much for this. Sell on strength (skeptical...whereforth comes the strength?)

Sunshine..sunshine...not looking bright either. Weekly charts seems to be on the downtrend. Daily one looks better, because stochastics is near min, so could be having a little rebound. But overall still downtrend. Lower end of bollinger band though, could be seeing a rebound real soon.

Longcheer a bit lagging now. Weekly chart looks excellent. MACD, trendline and momentum seems to be going up. Daily chart looks not bad. Price line still above ema 14d, no sign of slowing down too. Seems to be gaining momemtum too, with momentum cutting signal line soon. Seems to be accumulating, because vol always very high when the stock increases its price, but decreases a lot when price drops. Funds is coming into longcheer, I think.

That'll be all, I come back next week to see if all my predictions come true.
Overall returns: -$640 due mainly to fabchem, longcheer and sunshine not doing good.

Made 1.2k on call warrants today : )

At first, I did not want to buy anything, because tmr I'll be gng overseas for a short trip till Fri. I'll have difficulties making payments should I incur losses.

However, after observing the market, I just can't resist the temptation!

But firstly, let me recall the IR issue at play today. As expected, after genting won the sentosa IR, its share price will rise. I wouldn't buy it, certainly not today cos it would be chasing after it. What's more is that genting is going to issue new shares to get capital to fund the building of the IR, at the end of this year. If I wanted to hold genting, I'll prob go get it then, not now.

Capital fell but not by a lot. I guess shortist don't dare to touch this hot stock. Too bad, can't buy at lower price. Won't buy today too cos tmr flying off.

For my hsi warrants, I bought call. 3 times. Somehow I feel that first few days of the week I'm much more confident of myself, so I usually earn more. The rest of the week perhaps too tired already, or OVERconfident, so will lose my money nearing the weekend. That's an important point to take note in the future.

So, I went in and out 3 times, making small sums each time. Total made 1.2k today, so very very handsome profit. How did I do it?

a) Paying close attention to sentiment: Dow closed +30 last fri, nikkei opened strongly, even out sti was so strong in the morning. I bet that hsi will opened up too because Fri is lao until cannot lao already, so the probability of upside have to be higher than the downside.

b) Even before hsi opens at 10am, call warrants for them occupied the top 10 vol at sgx website. Don't follow the crowd. Yup, I didn't, I followed their sentiment after my research.

c) Disciplined approach to trading. I bought when the stochastics are making a minimum point at the bottom, I checked the momentum, making sure that the red line is above the blue one and checked the rsi, making sure that it's not very high (near top of screen). I also looked at the ema, to ensure it has completed its downtrend. Finally i checked the bollinger band to see if there's an uptrend, or better still, my favourite, the 'bollinger squeeze'.

I always like to see bollinger squeeze. It's quite easy to see it now that I've been trading warrants for 3 weeks. It only means 2 things, strong upside or strong downside. To see which one, just check the above things I mentioned.

d) Average down. I usually don't like to do that. But as I said, today I'm super confident of my chart reading. I bought near the minimum of the stochastics. When the price dropped further, I bought more. But I must see that the ema is turning upwards now and that the stocastics is completing the min and going upwards.

e) Very very impt. I opened another window to check the chart, when I have another window for the entry of orders. In fact, I already keyed in the orders, just waiting for the signal then I press the button. Very very effecient.

Okay, not looking to enter the market now, made enough today. Still a bit worried about fabchem and sunshine, dropping like nobody's business. Longcheer resting a while. When I come back, hope to see them starting to cheong!

As of now, losses are at $120. A lot depends upon how badly fabchem and sunshine drops. Since I can't control much about that, I shan't worry about it.

I'll update more when market close for today.

Friday, December 08, 2006

IR annoucement blues? Total returns: - 850

Another boring day.

Did not do any trades today, especially not hsi warrants. It was way to unstable to bet on either direction, although generally I think hsi had bottomed out. Can't get much lower than this already lah.

Dow futures green as of now, nasdaq and S&P -ve. I think tonight dow should be red. Just a feeling. Hmm, IR annoucement should be anytime now, I think, at 530pm.

What a bad market today. STI dropped 36 points, mainly supported by strong singtel showing. Can easily see that the top 10 volume are all occupied by singtel call warrants. I think without singtel, STI would drop even more so. Start of the bear? Hmm, I hope not.

Tried to sell off my longcheer, but today seems no strength, can't even support itself sufficiently. Just hold on still. Sunshine and fabchem, sigh, fell and fell. I'm getting worried about sunshine and fabchem. Both seems on the downtrend. Will try to get rid of them when they rise in strength. I certainly don't want to hold on so much stocks when market has reached the top.

Due to bad showing by 3 of my counters (longcheer, sunshine, fabchem), my total returns dropped to negative $850.

Total returns: - 220

As promised, here's the update for the last market day.

I'm very glad that I sold my call warrant for hsi at the earliest instant. Cos if not i'll be deeply in the red to the tune of 2.5 to 3k. I managed to escape at 1.3k, still not too bad. Point to take note: Don't keep warrant overnight if you want a good night's sleep. It's simply too volatile and highly manipulated.

Didn't buy any warrants, took a break today. Cos from what i see, hsi is whipsawing up and down in the morning, afternoon it's all DOWN DOWN DOWN until -183 points. Goodness. Heard it's China Mobile that had diarrhoea today. Must be the share placement thing that causes this. Anyway, banks stocks in hong kong is back with a revenge, rising furiously. Too bad sold off my icbc call warrant a few days earlier at a loss.

Longcheer went higher than expected today: 1.37, with huge volume. But I think profit taking sets in and it subsequently dropped to 1.29. Fabchem (what a disappointment) fell again, sunshine too. Because of this, my total returns stands at -$220. Can swing into positive anytime because I believe it's about as low as it can get for this week.

I'm thinking of dumping longcheer when it reaches a high tmr. Don't think I can hold till Feb. Lots of things can happen and I don't want to lose the chance to cash in my profits after I waited SOOOoooo long. Maybe tmr morning, when all the frantic buyers bid it up, I'll sell it. If it dropped a lot, I might buy it back later in the afternoon, thus becoming a contra short and cover. Still can make some money yet hold on to the stocks. See how first.

Longcheer cheong so fast, can also drop faster. Anyway, can buy back when it drops. Hopefully the 3G announcement don't come nxt week when I'm not around (gng for holiday).

IR annoucement tmr? Capitaland china reit debut? Tmr property market going to be hot hot and hot.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Sold my scary call warrant

Hmm, a bit early right? Market is not even closed yet, but here I am blogging away.

Today nearly had a panic attack. I can feel my heart pounding away furiously when it nears 9am. This is usually a bad sign. What's more, I log myself out of website after attempting for 3 tries!!

My god, the last time I did that, I had to wait 2-3 days for them to send me the password again! I couldn't afford that luxury, especially when I have an important warrant to sell off! Luckily, I called the service centre and unlike all the 99 times that I call them, they picked up immediately and did not put me on hold.

She resetted my account and I tried to remember it. My heart calmed down a lot and all went well from there.

I waited till 10 am before I sold my call warrant. Why?
a. Dow closed red but slightly (-22.35)
b. Nikkei opened strongly (+80 plus)
c. The buy quote for my warrant is miserable, I would have lost a lot more than I intend to if I sell at market opening.

Hsi went down all the way after it opens, and I sold less than 5 mins after that. The price of my warrant did not go up afterthat, so I'm glad I did sell it off. I incurred losses of 1.3 k due to yesterday's greediness and wrong mental state when buying.

It's okay lah, overall my warrant trading is +300 like that. Could be better but than again, I just started like 2 wks ago? Warrants are for the fast and furious, certainly not for the faint of heart.

Longcheer cheong like mad early morning, reaching a high of 1.33. I did not sell off, though I was in the money already. Reasons:
a. China gng to announce 3G licence and longcheer stands to benefit
b. I believe upside for longcheer is still there, even though overall market sentiment is far from good. Target price range from 1.5 to 2.3. If you take the average, that's already like 1.9. Even the lowest target price 1.5 still not a long way to go, so I will hold first

I won't trade warrants today. The direction is not clear. Hsi is clearly whip sawing up and down, though overall still in the red. Put warrant not enough volume, entering is too dangerous as you might get stuck in there. Call warrant, don't have to say already. Hsi going up and down support range of 19000. I'll wait for clearer direction first. So today, stay on the sideline and watch.

The plan for today is to sell of my long position. My uneasiness for the market is getting stronger. I wanted to sell off laggards like sunshine holdings and fabchem. ESPECIALLY Fabchem! So disappointing...what's worse, bad management because of director who is involved in a lot of accounting frauds in other companies. Sell on strength for this one.

Intending to hold on pacific andes, yellow page (1 lot for this one, just sit on it for the good dividend), long cheer.

Overall returns as of 11:30 am: + 380

Will update again at market close later

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Jittery day, no profits, total returns - 400

Today wasn't so good.

Firstly, I didn't stick to what I believed in. Secondly, I hope too much and was too greedy.

I wasn't sure of hsi direction today even though dow closed green, nikkei looked strong too. So, I didn't buy till around 10 am. This time, I bought too much because I thought that hsi would bottom out and would rise again. It didn't, in fact, it just keep dropping. After lunch, when it went up to cover my losses, I didn't cut it. Why? Greed.

I was busy trying to balance my profits/loss and wasn't concentrating on the trade itself. How could I do that? sigh...

So of now, still sitting on my long position on hsi. Tmr, there's only 2 action plan:
1. Cut my losses the moment the market opens
a. Dow future is negative
b. Some forum pple saying that china mobile, one of the components of hsi, did a share placement at 12% discount. I'm sure tmr china mobile shares would drop and that would pull down hsi together with my warrant price

2. Wait till the 10am for hsi to open, then decide.
a. Stocks don't go or down in a straight line. I might be able to cut smaller loss when it rebounded, or I might lose even bigger. Hard to see which way it'll go, esp in the morning when all the technical indicators are not even formed properly yet. Basically going in blind.

I suppose my choice is quite clear. Unless dow closed strongly in the green, of course. My fingers are crossed, best of luck to me tmr.

On the whole, I guess today's market is quite good. Longcheer, my god, flew up almost 10% at the last 1 hr or so to market close. Been holding it since like May before the selldown and now it's finally ripe. I think the main thing here is the China is going to release the 3G licence at the end of Dec. Longcheer being one of the prominent handphone designers in China will be able to reap off a big deal here. Besides that, Longcheer is sitting on a huge cash reserves, so might be able to give a fat dividend come next Feb when they announce their results.

Don't know if I'm able to hold up till then. Maybe I'll sell when I break even, maybe I'll hold. Right now, all my mind is on the long position I'm holding. Quite worried, actually.

Losses as of now is 400. (Could change drastically depending on my call warrant tmr)

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Made a 1k today, total position -1.2k

First thing in the morning, what I did normally is to check the dow jones together with nikkei. Dow jones closed around 90 pts, which is considered a very bullish sign for all other indices. Hopefully, STI and HSI will open strongly too.

I bought two put warrant, one of them is my favourite one, the other is a higher gear. Both are call warrant, because I believe that hsi will also rise up strongly. I was paying close attention to the stochastic and rsi, after learning about them since yesterday. I also checked on bollinger band, always looking out for the squeeze that will occur just before a breakout. In the morning, a squeeze happened and the rsi is low, stochastics all point towards a breakout of the bollinger band to the upside. It did!

After it ran out of steam (stochastic rising all the way to the top, rsi very high, 14 EMA starts having a gentler gradient), I closed my open position immediately. I'm quite proud of that because this time I act on my judgement. Made a cool 400 just before lunch.

After all the signals point towards a bottom out situation, I bought more call warrants (my fav warrant). Bought twice as much as I normally do because I believe hsi will close strongly today. However, after lunch, it just went down and down. Quite nervous because was sitting on a paper loss of 700 to 1k. Luckily, it gained strength around 3pm. I sold when it reached my target price.

However, on hindsight, I should have stayed longer and make maybe 3 times more. It's okay, cannot be too greedy. The 3 times more could act against me and I could have lost 3 times more too, wiping all my profits for today.

Tempted to buy more call warrant today to anticipate for tmr. US futures are all green. But I decided not too. The market is very volatile now, so it can swing both ways suddenly. I certainly don't want to be caught holding a long position while the market tumbles and falls.

On a broader aspect, I think what some said the forum is true. Market will undergo a correction on next monday, after the announced IR results (prob this Fri). Hope to clear 50% of my long by then. If not I'll just brave the storm and hold on.

Oh ya, what's my total profit/loss now? Still have another 10 plus mins before market closes for the day, and I've shaved off around 1k off my total returns. Now still losing around 1.2k.

Not too bad, I must say

Monday, December 04, 2006

Made some contra gains, lost a LOT of long


In life, you made some and lose some. I only hope to make more than I lose. Not today, I guess.

Today, I have a gut feeling that HSI will do alright. This is after DOW has fallen by around 27 pts on last Fri. My rationale is this: HSI has fallen very badly on Fri too, around 270 points (if I'm not wrong?). Some forum pple said that this is due to the BBs trying to sell off their stocks before this week's new and exciting IPOs in hongkong. There's also this thing about HSI going to get restructured, about BOC being one of the components of HSI.

Well, that's all last week's news. So I guess today should recovered a fair bit. It did. After deciding on whether to buy a call warrant for HSI in the money, I'm basically sitting on gains of around 440 to 940. It came in waves of ups and downs. Eventually I settled for 440, making some decent money.

However, all my long position fell quite badly, overall still losing close to 2.9k. WTF.

Today learnt a bit more about using Bollinger band to check for 'squeezing'. It happens when the top and bottom band starts to get closer and the line chart is trading sideways, bouncing up and down between the bands. I think if the chart is above the median line of the bands AND the MACD are both pointing upwards AND RSI is quite average (50- 70), it's a valid buy signal. To confirm, it's best to wait for it to break out first, of cos.

Gotto to have more confidence in my judgement.

First shot out

Hmm, this is not the first time I'm having a blog. Though it is a first time I'm having a trading blog. Why a trading blog?

Well, it's always good to document your thinking and psychological state at the end of each trading day. This serves both purposes: One to decide what action to do the next trading day, Second to see if the actions carried on this trading day goes according to plan.

I believe over time, this blog should serve me well. I really hope to break even after the stupid May/June selldown.