Thursday, June 28, 2007

Construction stocks TUA CHEONG today

Today STI went as low as 3512 before rebounding back towards market closing time, ending +32 at 3538. Is the worst over? I really think so. Just have to wait for STI to correct again, but this time dropping a higher low than the previous one and then closing a higher high than today. A very simplistic but powerful higher high higher low will indicate a new uptrend is being formed. Now STI is in transient, so anything can happens.

Most notably, it depends on how the fed meeting minutes go. I don't think they will change the rates, but it's their outlook that investors worldwide are looking at. Will they increase rates towards end of year? Will they lower the rates because inflation is controlled? Well, we'll know by 4pm when Dow closes, haha :)

Today must be construction stocks day. Yongnam rose up to 52 weeks high of 0.510, with very high volume. I saw trades in terms of millions, 4 million, 6 million even 7 million buyups around 4 pm removed all the resistance. I wonder what's the big thing about yongnam today? Contracts won? No announcement leh...unless tmr they go trading halt, then ho say already :)

Most likely yongnam will reach flag target of 0.515 tmr, possibly even exceeding it. The ultimate target price of yongnam is set by CIMB at 0.610. Well, all depends on whether there is contract win announced. I already assumed yongnam had a super high chance of winning the steel works for both IR already (goldman sachs mentioned as high as 70% contracts because yongnam is the biggest in this area in the region). If tmr trading halt, price will run like mad when it opens. Probably will drop like CSC too, build base then run again. But too much soothsaying already, let's go one step at a time.

As yongnam went up, the other construction stocks also rallied. CSC close at 52 weeks high of 0.430 on high volume too. Seriously, I hope CSC run up more than yongnam (for selfish reasons, haha, cos I own more of CSC). Lian beng didn't break all time high, but it's inching up towards all time high of 0.450...just a matter of time.

Pac andes went as low at 0.885...I hope it goes to 0.870, haha, then i'll accumulate. 0.890 still risky to me, given the market sentiment. I'll probably going to regret this, haha!

Actually the one I'm most worried about isn't pac andes, it's straits asia. Closed at 1.41 (ema20 days) already, drop anymore will trigger people to sell. Not sure what the charts tell me, looks like channel trending. If so, might go lower as the lower trendline is around 1.34. That's extremely bad! I hope some white knight BB come and save it!

My blog getting more and more people visitng. Now already have 60 visitors already, where in the past there's only 15. Must be some advertising I did over at cna forum. Well, for newcomers, I do hope you'll find my post useful (I find it very useful myself). Blogging down your journal in trading/investing is the fastest way to learn. You get to grow your confidence and let others see your opinions. Haha, enough already, need to pack my bags cos I'm going over to Batam from tmr till this sunday. Will be back on sunday to do some charts and plot my course of action for the next week. Hope when I come back Yongnam cheong to 60 cts!!

Dow go up go down (now -14), probably waiting for fed meeting minutes to be out. Till then, shouldn't see any action. Europe all green.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

STI bounce off ema50 stop 3450

Wow...STI touching ema50 days at 3490 and rebounded, with higher volume than yesterday. This is after Dow's drop again last night. Late recovery today made it go past 3500 mark to close at 3505.

Is the selling done? Hard to say. Based on TA, I can say it's nearly done. Next support level at 3450. Anything lower than that level and we'll have another fresh round of downturn. But I don't see it happening. STI been dropping for 4 consecutive sessions already, should see some buyers stepping in for some bargains. The big bargains are the banks and property stocks...when is the last time you saw Capitaland at 7.50? It was in march...Maybe can look into their warrants for the banks and property stocks.

Tmr we shall see CSC adding another 13,148,423 shares into the market. This is due to the exercise of the convertible notes on 25 June. Sian loh, another dilution to existing share holders. Most of it might already been factored in already, since they made the announcement all the way from last March to the more recent June period. I should expect CSC not to fall too back behind. Perhaps weak holders will sell out, but we shall see. Support at 0.385, and I REALLY hope it won't come to that.

Swiber is as expected, the share placement will exert short term selling pressure. Today it dropped 0.040 to close at 2.250. Share placement price is at 2.17 so we should see more selling this week. The good thing is that the selling today is with low volume, so shouldn't be too concerned that the big boys (BB) are selling.

Pac andes continue dropping. Initially wanted to buy the rights traded at open market today since it's selling at less than 0.52, which is the offer price for the rights. But after thinking why nobody is buying, I found out in the previous post the reason. Ahh...enlightenment :) I never really mentioned the implication of it...

It just means that we can treat the rights like warrants. Do short term trading. Maybe can do shorting and covering back on the same day, if you believe pac andes have more downside.

Pac andes is touching ema50 days already. Good support level can be found at 0.87, which offers an excellent bargain for long term holders. I'm really tempted to queue today at 0.89 already, but i stopped myself. See the rate meeting over at US side over the next 2 days first.

Yongnam again amazes me...rises up to a high of 0.465 before closing up 0.020 at 0.460. A good thing I bought 5 lots at 0.435...pure luck, not skill, I admit. I just did a chart on yongnam, decided it had enough evidence to be an ascending triangle, observe for one day, then enter the next at breakout level of 0.435. There is rumors flying around that yongnam rise today and yesterday is about pending announcement of contract won (maybe middle east or IR related).

Here's the extract:


0658 GMT [Dow Jones] Yongnam (Y02.SG) +2.3% at S$0.45 on very heavy volume, sparking further speculation it''ll announce big contract win in coming days. Company reported to be in line for casino resort, sports hub contracts in Singapore, with steelwork required for these projects thought to be worth over S$500 million. CIMB says "Yongnam's forays into the Middle East are paying off, and likely projects would include the Dubai Metro, Doha airport and Qatar World Trade Centre;" combined, these projects estimated to be worth over S$250 million. Stock capped at S$0.50, with share price bucking downtrend on broader market; company not immediately available to comment. (JEM)

Not to mention don't forget about the Springleaf Tower case which the results will likely be announced in early July and is looking favourable for YN to win the case. This will add another $10-$15 million to the bottom line and possibly another $5 million + after revaluation I believe. This has not been factored into the tp yet and would reflect in the price if YN wins the case.

Let's wait for the good news to come. Oh, in case your memory fails you, yongnam did a share placement exercise too not too long ago. After everything sinks in, the prices still rose don't give up on Swiber and Pac andes and CSC!!

I look here look there, seems like every other stock is touching ema 20 days (if not ema 50 days). A good sign actually, because valuations are sky high already, so a drop now and then brings everything back to reality. A drop here and then defuses a time bomb or bubble from forming, this will prevent an even greater drop in the future. So don't give up, when the worst happens, days can only get better and better!

Dow at -34 now, europe all red.

Oh, I received the offer statement to subscribe to my rights issue for Pac andes. Enclosed is a thick offer statement document which had lots of infomation inside. I think I'll bring it to Batam with me to read through. Yeah, going over there from Fri to Sunday, so not going to be around should there be contracts announcement for IR this Fri (hahah, wishful thinking again!)

After I read through this, i'll post some stuff about it. Musicwhiz blog contains a wealth of information, esp regarding some common stocks that we own (swiber and pac andes). The link is posted on the left under the "blogs" heading. Let's hear what he have to comment after he read through the offer statement too, can learn from him :)

Pac andes Rights open trading today

I was thinking for so long, now I've finally understand how the rights issue for Pac andes work!!

I've just been issued 4 lots of Pac andes R (R for rights) in my CDP account because I had 4 lots of pac andes mother shares before their book closure date. Today, Pac andes R began trading and it opens at 0.400.

I initially thought it's a good deal because to convert each rights to mother share, I have to fork out $0.52. Since the pac andes R are selling on open market at 0.40, I thought it's a great deal.


Above is a snapshot of the prices of pac andes mother share and pac andes rights. The mother share price is currently at 0.935 while the pac andes rights is trading at 0.420. If I buy 1 lot of Pac andes R at 0.420, I have to fork out $446.50 (420 + brokerage). I would then own 1 lot of pac andes R. If I want to convert it to mother share, I have to fork out another $0.52 per share, so to convert my 1 lot of pac andes R, I have to pay another 520 (0.52 x 1000). My total cost would be 966.50.

OR, I can buy 1 lot of pac andes mother share right away at 0.935 per share, giving me a total of $961.81 (935 + brokerage).

I actually save money by buying the mother share straight!! This means that unless the market price of pac andes R is substantially below the market price of mother share minus 0.52, it's not going to be better to buy the rights from open market.

In summary,
(market price of mother share - 0.52) > market price of rights + brokerage
then we buy the mother share instead of the rights

Conversely if
(market price of mother share - 0.52) < market price of rights + brokerage
then we buy the rights instead of the mother share

Simple? haha! I'm glad I thought this through, makes the whole thing a lot simpler now

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

STI below ema20 days; next stop 3490

STI dropped below ema20 days, bad news...but more of that later.

Swiber made an announcement today that they are conducting private shares placement exercise to raise a total of S120.4 million, with CIMB-GK as the placement agent, at a price of $2.1748 (representing a discount of 7% to today's close of 2.3385). They wanted to raise the money mainly to expand its fleet of vessels for its offshore marine support services and EPCIC projects, the rest of general working capital purposes.

Short term this is bad, because it will dilute the value of each share and the price should drop around the placement price of $2.17. Not fair right, big institutional buyers can have 7% discount to buy swiber, while retailers like me have the scraps. Long term, it should be good because Swiber is using it to expand its fleet (so as to get more business) and to improve its cash flow (which deteriorate based on last quarter report).

More info can be found here.

I'll wait for musicwhiz to digest this. It's so heavy for me, don't even know what to focus on to read. (so ashamed...want to find out more about FA, up to now still don't know how to do independent research)

All indicators and charts show swiber is topping, so might really drop near to placement price before it can go up. I'll ride the wave, perhaps adding more when it dropped enough.

Straits asia really dropped near my support level of 1.48, closing at 1.49 today. For a brief moment, it even went below my support level (intraday low of 1.43). Sitting on trendline now, with indicators suggesting more downside. Ride it out or protect profit? I still haven't decide yet...oh no. I'll probably do nothing as of now, see if 1.41 can support this. If it really nears 1.41, might really have to protect profit and run first.

Pac andes dropped a lot today and really reached 0.915/0.920, but I didn't enter. I was really not confident of Dow this week (more on that later). I'm also quite fully vested in stocks, so thought that unless I sell of some of my holdings, I'll not put in more. Must be disciplined. Might drop lower to test ema50 days at 0.89. If that really happens, it's a MUST buy already. Margin of safety...margin of safety...

Yongnam is steady today. One of the few green counter in SGX today. In the morning went up to a high of 0.450 before closing +0.010 at 0.440. Not too bad, with high volume too on a downday like today. I think when market sentiment is better, should see it cheong more. I queued to buy 5 lots at 0.435 when the price was around 0.440/0.445 in the morning. Thought of trying my luck only, but when the downturn came, I got the 5 lots. Well, I'll gladly take it. Total of 10 lots of yongnam with average buy price of 0.390.

All construction counters holding well (worst is perhaps koh brothers but it ran up a lot, so maybe that's why).

STI dropped a lot today. Down 55 points (1.54%) and is now below ema20 days at 3525. Might see it drop to 3490 before we can find relief, pending on Dow. But Dow itself isn't that fantastic either. I'll do a brief chart on that later.

Good thing is that the volume today is 3.8 billion (compared to 4.8 billion yesterday), so at least the volume isn't huge. Huge selldown on property and bank stocks. I think this correction is good because it paves the way for the next earnings seasons bull run coming up in a month's time. STI reaching too high, need to come down before going up further.

Dow daily shows the making of a double top reversal. If tonight it dropped below the neckline (13,370), then went up to test that resistance but fails, Dow might really drop below ema50 days, possibly seeing relief at 13,040 or lower (according to Joshing from CNA forum).

FED meeting this rate hike is the theme over at US side. Let's see how Ben talks, he might save the day or doom us all. Presently Dow is +43 now, Europe a sea of red. Enough for now, tmr let's see who wins...bear or bull :)

Monday, June 25, 2007

STI might test ema20 days tmr

First the good news...

Swiber clinched a US$31 million Letter of Intent to provide offshore installation works in M'sia. This pushes the order book for 2007 to be US$228.3 million. Price for swiber subsequently rose up to around $0.10 before coming to close 0.080 at $2.36. This is good news for swiber as deals kept coming in. Order book for 2007 already exceeds 2006, so this financial year should be even better than last year. Action: Hold long term.

Not so good news..

After dow dropped 185 pts last fri, STI followed suit to go down 35 pts to close at 3580. This is quite close to my first support lvl for STI based on the chart I did last night. Pending on how Dow performs tonight, we might see STI rebounding immediately tmr. If not, the next support level is 20 points down at the very important ema20 days support of 3560. I read a research report by CIMB, which advices people to sell on strength because STI is undergoing a bearish rising wedge.

Here's the site:

TA is such that given different time frame, we can see different things. The channel trending that I posted last night was based on a short term time frame. The research report by CIMB was based on a longer term (a few months), hence it should be more significant.

Maybe this weekend then I'll do a more detailed analysis on STI with possible support level for this impending correction. Dateline for this correction is before 4th week of July (where the 2 trendlines converge).

Pac andes undergoing downtrend down, short term only. Looks set to break ema20 days, which is even better, cos I will be down there to collect at low price. Funny feeling, when you want your stock to drop so you can accumulate more at cheaper prices, hahah! Oh, the effect of reading benjamin graham and his idea of margin of safety!

I heard some people are shorting pac andes, all the better! My entry point for Pac andes is 0.915/0.920, which happens to be 38.2% fibo retracement level too. Should provide enough support to prevent it from going further down. I'll wait patiently for 0.920 to be reached.

Wanted to collect more yongnam around 0.405 but it didn't materialise. I thought in the morning, it even broke out of ascending triangle when the prices went above 0.435 (0.445 intraday high). Since it didn't close above 0.435, the price still stays within the ascending triangle, so it's still bullish. I believe it's the general market sentiment that prevents yongnam from closing above 0.435. Nevertheless, I'll wait patiently to collect. I'm more disciplined when it comes to buying now, not like the time when i just whacked 20 lots for csc immediately after it resumes trade on winning IR contracts. Wait and wait for a safe price...protect capital first.

Construction stocks going down for short term... been up for the past weeks, should rightly should take a break.

Straits asia dropped 0.070 to close at 1.51. support level at 1.48 seems to be near. I hope it won't come close to that, if not my action plan will kick in. Power of rising bear wedge, might happen to STI too, beware!

Dow +74 now, europe mainly red. Tmr might see STI testing ema20 better hold!!

Genting close at 0.990 today. So glad I sold at 1.02 on last fri. Get 40 plus profits better than losses right? I'll use the 5k I released from genting to invest more...I'll wait patiently for the right price.

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Weekly action plan - STI support level

Dow dropped 185 points on Fri. More or less, STI will be affected.

Plan for next week: Cautious buy on yongnam. Sell if trend gets broken for straits asia resource. The rest put on hold first.

I did a chart for yongnam just now and noticed a small ascending triangle that last 1 week or so. Might not be very significant but the decreasing volume whilst inside the triangle seems to suggest that it's likely to see the formation being completed. The breakout point is 0.435, preferably with high volume.

2 good points for entry into yongnam:

1. If it breaks resistance at 0.435, then anything above that price is a good pt to enter, assuming breakout is successful. Must see the volume and market depth to decide if the breakout is genuine.

2. If ascending triangle fails by breaking below the lower trendline, then 0.400/0.405 is a good point to enter. 0.405 is the horizontal support level (short term and 0.400 is the fibo retracement zone (61.8%).

See which scenario is acted out. The edge magazine gave yongnam a target price of 0.46. I think that's highly possible upon breakout above 0.435. Tmr must see where to start queuing. Probably will buy 5 lots more to test, since this is afterall a speculative stock that I will hold for intermediate to medium term. Don't be too sure.

For straits asia, I must keep a lookout. It just broke out of bearish rising wedge on the downside last Fri. Not sure if it's a whipsaw or really broke down. Given the bad market sentiment on Monday (tmr), might see more selling for straits asia. Support level upon breaking down of wedge is 1.48 (weak support), then followed by 1.41 (stronger short term support).

If 1.41 breaks, then straits asia will also go below ema20 days, quite bearish sign. Given that ema20 days is such a long moving support level for straits asia, I will sell if it goes below 1.41. Hope it won't come to that, cos my profit would have dwindled quite a lot. See how first. Maybe if 1.48 breaks with high volume, I'll sell half first, then look again at 1.41. Break 1.41, sell all out. Yah, I think that's a better decision.

Protect your profit, and live to fight another day!

Genting...I'm quite sure I did the right thing by selling on strength last Fri. With the bad market sentiment, might not see $1 for long. Will collect at sub 90 cents level and hold long this time. I entered Genting at $1 last time, too high and too dangerous without margin of safety.

Actually don't know if I should add more holdings to Swiber. Swiber have such a nice chart, forming double base. at 2.27 seems very strong. But too expensive now... so maybe not.

So, with the exception of straits asia, the rest I feel quite safe. This feeling is quite strange and new to me, because I used to be quite jittery if dow drops 1.5 to 2%. Now, I just see it as opportunities to buy certain stocks I want. Haha, I guess that's an important change in mindset already.

Did a chart on STI. STI is channel trending, so should be bouncing up and down the top and bottom trendline. It just hit the top of the trendline, so the ultimate bottom is really at the bottom trendline, around 3540. But that's a bit far for now.

I'm looking for support at 3588 thereabouts. Happens to be 61.8% fibo retracement zone too, so I should expect that level to hold well. If it doesn't, next level at 3560, which happens to be ema20 days. Unless something serious happens, I don't think we'll be breaking ema20 soon.

Summary for STI:
Support at 3588 (horizontal + 61.8% fibo retracement) - should hold for this week
Next support at 3560 (ema20 days) - better hold, if not big trouble!

Since none of my stocks are STI components, shouldn't affect me even if it drops too much for STI. Asia bourses are heading for correction anyway, with so many of them hitting record highs.

Good luck tmr! (happy shopping!)

Friday, June 22, 2007

Charts charts charts

Chartnexus uploaded today's data already :)

Straits asia might have broken out of the rising bear wedge as suggested a few days ago. The signs are all there, low volume while inside the formation, price bouncing up and down within two uptrending and converging channel.

Today's the price seems to have broken out of the wedge, although the volume is not strong, it's still valid. I guess it didn't help that CIMB downgraded straits asia with tp of $1.36. Hmm...should I cash out or buy more on weakness? I'm not too sure. Read all about it here:

Possible support level at 1.48 then 1.41 (strong support). If I want to add in on weakness, it should be around the support. If I want to sell off on strength, I'll sell upon breaking down of support. Hmm, hard decision to make, esp so since I'm still not sure of how to do an independent evaluation of the value of the stock. Jiat lat...

CHoffshore trading within channel trend now. It will go up and down within the trend line. I can only say the uptrend is still there, unless the lower downtrend breaks down. I like this stock better and better. Target price set by Kim Eng is $0.85

From the table above, seems like CHoffshore is trading way below its peers. It's the 2nd lowest in its sector, meaning it's undervalued compared to its peers. Marine oil/gas sector is booming now, best time to ride on the trend. I'm also holding similar stocks like swiber.

Construction stocks have run up a lot since last week, so should be consolidating and building base before its next upsurge. Unless have news of new contracts, I don't think it'll have much incentive to go up. Haha, better still, take this lull in activity to add more yongnam to my holdings. After freed the 5k from genting, I should reinvest in some construction stocks. Can add 10 lots if I buy at 0.405 for yongnam.

Dow futures stand at -23 now. Europe still all red.

I'll post what I'm going to do for next week this Sunday.



STI 2nd day of distribution. Today STI dropped 24 pts with a volume of 4.5 billion, comparable yesterday's volume. Opens at -18, closed at -24. Most of the stocks fell, ranging from big caps like dbs to penny shares. Looks rather broad based.

Dow futures contract stands at -42 now, a good indication that it'll open badly. Next week is the release of housing sales report for US side. Might cause market to be jittery.

As chartnexus haven't updated the charts yet, I can't do any analysis now. Maybe i'll do it tonight or Sunday evening.

Today I did my first trade since 22-May. It had been a month since I decided to do nothing and just watch the stocks and learn. Today, I sold off my Genting at $1.02. I bought at $1, 5 lots on 5-May. I bought Genting then because it was threatening to break out with high volume, got duped and faithfully held on the shares as it went down to sub 90 cents. Recently it went up again to around 1.05 but did not close there. I don't like the action of genting.

After breaking out with high volume, there's no follow through. At most it's a weak breakout, if not a false one even. Today there's just no strength in the counter, went up to $1.030 and close at $1 again for the second day. To me that's a possible sign of reversal. I'm not going to take my chances and ride it out with genting again because the capital lock up (slightly more than 5k) is substantial to me. I might as well put it in poem MMF and earn a rather risk free $10 interest for one month with my 5k. I also entered at a high and the price tested my buy in price too many times for me to be comfortable holding it without worrying. Hence, I sold it to lock in a rather small 0.83% profit.

I'll be looking to enter genting again at a lower and safer price in order to have a good margin of safety. Genting is not a punting stock, you either believe in the casino and buy and hold for long term, or you simply don't look at it. My ideal price to enter? Less than 90 cents (my wishful thinking), haha!

Portfolio losses closed this week at 11k, after taking into account pac andes rights issue.

Dow futures now -60..gasps...Europe all a sea of red.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Extract from Musicwhiz blog (pac andes rights issue)

This is an extract from Musicwhiz blog (link is on the left side of the column, under blogs). I posted this for my own reference to the important dates and events relating to the rights issue for pac andes.

Pacific Andes Holdings - Rights Issue Details and Comments

Today was the day that PAH went Ex-Rights (XR), and the price has adjusted according to the formula (Market Price + Rights Price)/2. In this case, the previous day's close was $1.41, thus theoretically, the XR price should be $0.965 based on the formula. PAH closed at $1.04 today, thus there was a 7.5 cent premium to the theoretical XR price. Computed backwards, the pre-rights price would have been about $1.55, which is an all-time high.

This phenomenon can be explained by the fact that PAH and CFG are rapidly growing their business, and from a business analyst perspective (as all value investors should be), this means that over time, the intrinsic value of the business and company can only increase. Without taking into account EPS growth, we are still likely to see positive results as ROE increases and net margin improves due to economies of scale in having more fishing vessels. Thus, the rights issue has achieved its objective of raising funds to grow the business, and Mr. Market has correctly factored in PAH's growth potential.

With the XR, it is perhaps prudent to explain the relevant important key dates and their interpretations for all PAH shareholders and other interested parties.

Ex-Rights Date (20 June, 2007)
- This represents the date at which buying the shares in PAH no longer entitles you to the 1:1 rights to buy the share at $0.52. Dates before this date are considered the Cum-Rights (CR) period.

Record Date (22 June, 2007) - This is the books closure and record date for determining shareholders' entitlements to the rights issue. This will be T+3 from the last CR date.

Rights Trading Period (27 June, 2007 to 05 July, 2007) - This is the period whereby the rights are traded on SGX. Shareholders who were entitled to receive rights during CR period are able to sell their rights or buy more during this period. The rights are called nil-paid rights during this interim period as they have not been converted into shares yet. If rights are purchased, the buyer must still fork out $0.52 per right to convert it to one PAH share.

Rights Closing Date (11 July, 2007) - This is the final day for the rights, after which each right will be converted to one share in PAH at a price of $0.52 per right share.

As far as I know, there are no admin or brokerage charges which are applicable to the subscription for rights (could someone correct me on this if I am wrong ?). Thus, all it takes is x number of shares X $0.52 to get the amount to be paid. PAH is supposed to send an Offer Information Statement (OIS) to all shareholders to formally announce the rights issue and to inform about the indicative timetable of events.

The price of the rights in the market has to be such that a person buying the rights is no better off than buying the mother share (i.e. PAH). Thus, at the closing price of $1.04 today, and with a rights conversion price of $0.52 per right share, the theoretical market price for the rights should be at least $0.52. If it exceeds this, then it is more logical to buy the mother share directly rather than the rights. Thus, the rights' market price should keep pace with the market price of the mother share, to the tune of the formula Rights Market Price = PAH Market Price minus Rights Conversion Price.

If the fundamentals of the business remain strong, the temporary EPS dilution will not be an issue as the earnings will eventually catch up with the larger share float. If margins improve and economies of scale are achieved, EPS dilution may be minimal and intrinsic value can be maintained or even improved.

For the avoidance of doubt, PAH is only CR and not CD yet, even though the dividend of S$0.54 cents per share (post-rights) has been announced. This is because the dividend has not been approved at the AGM yet. Thus, shareholders who buy during the XR period will still be eligible to get the dividend as the CD period has not begun yet.

Lian beng, Koh bros, Heeton and KSH consortium won $243 million contract

Hmm, today is such an odd day.

STI opens low but closed higher, with 4.5 billion (lower than yesterday's 5.7 billion). Does that mean that the impending downside is halted? Honestly I've never encountered this situation before since I've started to notice the correlation between opening, close and volume to determine if STI is going to reverse trend. My gut feeling is that it's not negated. For further confimation of reversal, I think I'll have to take a look on tmr.

But Dow's -149 drop didn't affect asian bourses at all, that's something to take note. Market is such an unpredictable place. The same drop in different days can have all different reaction, ranging from downright panic to exuberant rally.

The news for today must go to Koh brothers and Lianbeng. They formed a joint venture (together with Heeton holdings and KSH holdings) to develop a prime freehold property known as Lincoln Lodge, at District 11 off Newton Road for a total of $243 million. Since they mentioned it's on a equal sharing basis, the contract won for Lianbeng is $60.75 million. Okaayyyy....not a lot, not too little too. I guess the contract award is more for exposure and branding than a real big winfall. I thought it's related to wonder Genting also fell, haha

Anyway, now isn't the time to load up on lianbeng. Wait for it to come down first then I might add more. But of course, the order is Yongnam first, then followed by lianbeng. CSC I already had a mouthful (25 lots) so I guess that's enough. Hold medium to long term should be fine to ride onto the construction sector rally.

I more or less confirm that Straits asia had entered into bearish rising wedge formation. The price movement is getting narrower and narrower until it collapses. More on this at the end of this week. Not sure what action to follow through: add more when going down or sell out.

CHoffshore reached my target price of 0.775 already. Even went up as high as 0.800 before closing +0.050 at 0.790. I read from cna forum that they had a ship which had been fully depreciated but is still contributing to the profits. If CHoffshore decided to dispose and sell off this ageing ship, it'll have a sum of money that is considered 'free' because the value of it had been written off. Okay...that's some accounting for you (lucky I know a bit here and there to understand what the hell they are talking about, haha). Anyway, the more I see this stock, the better I think it is. Looks like another cosco or swiber. My action is to hold.

Swiber consolidating...short term support at 2.25 (based on fibo retracement zone). Overall trend is still up lah...hell of a ride for swiber from 1.87. Take a break, then can go up further, haha :)

Genting...sian...I really hope it won't fall back to 90 cents range again. Really must watch this stock carefully tmr and beginning of next week. I don't want to hold this expensive stock for so long - opportunity cost. Looking to switch the other stocks and come back to this when it fall much lower. See how first....tmr not around to monitor also. Hope for the best!

WONDERFUL!! Chartnexus actually accounted for the rights issue for pac andes and backdated all the price. Really shows a spike up after they announce XR, haha, that's the great response we get for pac andes.


I helped you checked out the allco commercial reits rights issue. Based on the info provided by this announcement,
Att_F0F5A98717FF0E66482572E60052ACA8/$file/Allco.Ancmt.2.250507.pdf?openelement (join them up)

I gather that allco reits are trying to raise up to 210 million to finance the acquisition of the centrelink property and to repay existing debts in relation to the portfolio after the acquisition of the 55 market street property. Since the aims of the fund raising exercise is to increase the asset value of the reits, I believe it's a worthy cause. (It'll be bad if it wants to issue rights shares just to repay debts, as it would signify to investors that they might run into some cash flow problems). As reits provided income in the form of dividend for investors, the more asset they have the better right? I'll take up the rights issue straight.

The problem for the rights issue is that according to this website:

shareholders will be entitled to buy 2 highly discounted rights shares for every 5 existing held as at 25th June (book closure date), with fractions of a lot disregarded. This means for every 1 lot (1000 shares), you are entitled to purchase another 400 shares (outcome must be a multiple of 1000 or 1 lot).

E.g if you hold 2 lots, you are not entitled to purchase any rights shares!!
(2000/5 x 2 = 800, which is less than 1 lot)

If you hold 6 lots, you can entitled to purchase 2 lots of rights as(6000/5 x 2 = 2400, which is closest to 2000 shares or 2 lots).

SO, if you're interested, make sure you own at least a multiple of 5 lots (make it easier for you to calculate)!! I might be wrong about this as my underlying assumption is that the 'UNIT' mentioned in the website is taken as equivalent to 1 lot by me. Ask your broker if you're in doubt.

They haven't provided the offer price for the rights shares yet. But these rights shares can be traded like normal shares on the open market, up to a certain date. You can sell off your rights or buy more on the open market like any other normal shares. After a certain date, the rights shares will be converted to mother share. E.g if you have 5 lots of allco reits before XR, you are entilted to buy 2 rights share after XR. You can trade these 2 rights shares on the market (buy more and sell off). After a certain day, all these rights shares will be converted to mother shares. Say you bought another 2 right shares on the open market, and you'll end up with a total of 9 mother shares (5 original + 4 shares converted from rights).

Hope I made it clear!

Dow made a strong rebound at 13,400. Shouldn't be too bad tonight. Presently at -3 points. Europe all red.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

First day for STI distribution

Koh brothers trading halt!

Price dropped 3 bids today before the trading halt announced after market close. I think most of the upside had been factored in, as it rose up so much before the halt. Possibly IR news, unless like yongnam got shares placement issues, haha :)

Construction stocks mostly dropped, except lianbeng which closed at 0.415. Yongnam drop more I'm even happier (crazier right?), then I'll accumulate. I'll be more realistic, anything less than 0.405 I'll consider accumulating. 0.405 is the short term support level.

Straits asia powered up to close at 1.650 (+0.110). This one daily chart got some problems. I see a bearish rising wedge with low volume. Other indicators seem to support the bearish outlook for this stock too. I'll do a more detailed analysis this weekend before I decide to abandon ship and lock in my profits first. This will be on my alert list.

Pac andes dropped around 30% after it went XR today. Before XR, it was trading at 1.41. Theoretical price after XR should be 0.5(1.41+0.52)= 0.965. It was hovering around that level in the morning before shooting up to close at $1.040 (intraday high of 1.050). The response after XR was better than I thought :)

With today's closing price of 1.040, that is equivalent to a pre-rights price of $1.56. Increase of 10.6% from yesterday's close!! I'm still waiting for their rights offer to be sent to me. I'll post it here as a reference so that next time if I got any rights offer again, I can refer to it here to get a general idea of what's going to happen.

What's exciting was that Genting also rose :) That was rather unexpected. I posted on the chatbox that it'll be good for it to close around 1.05 and it did close at 1.04. A genuine breakout by genting at last, after so many false ones. I broke even on this counter already (at last) and I'm thinking of selling it on strength. But the weekly chart is too good already. 4 red 1 green histogram. I'll wait till end of this week to decide.

Genting must watch carefully. A bad history of false breakouts makes this stock very volatile. But I believe this time it's real because of the huge volume on breakout. Further, bollinger band tightening on daily charts makes it highly likely that the final movement after breakout is a huge one. I'll be hoping to see it clear 1.10 resistance level first, then hopefully 1.20.

CH offshore also did pretty well. My flag target is 0.775. Previous posting, I mentioned that I'm not sure I calculated it correctly because it's so far from the price then. Today this stock showed me it's possible. Intraday high went to 0.770 before retracing to 0.740. I'll still hold on. The price that I paid for this stock (0.665) is a rather safe price. I might not be able to get at that price again for a long time.

Amara went up further, even gapping up. Sian, missed this completely because I wasn't around. Never mind lah, still got chance to enter other stocks :)

STI opens high, close neutral, with greater volume than yesterday. First day of distribution started. I give it at most two days, STI would retrace already. There's only a stock that I need to worry about, and that's genting. If genting takes off, I'll worry the rest next week, no need to gan cheong because I believe overall trend is still up. It's healthy to retrace so we can move up to 4200 by end of this year, hahah! Time for shopping :)

Too bad next 2 days I won't be around. I'm quite sure PW is a good bet. But then again, who knows? My warrant skills suck big time.

Dow jones up 25, europe all green.

Happy to announce that my portfolio losses hit 10.8k! (after taking into acct my new rights shares for pac andes at today's closing) What's really happy for me is that all my 9 stocks have turned positive, except yellow page :) My current portfolio returns is 37% on average, much much better than last year. Of course, without my losses I would have earned a decent profit already. But oh well, without these lessons, I wouldn't have become who I am today. Let's keep this up and I'll hit the magical 10k mark losses soon!


Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Construction stocks sector play

Today most of the construction stocks rallied strongly. All 3 of my construction stocks reached a new level of price, with CSC at 0.415, Yongnam at 0.430 and Lian beng at 0.405. All of them more than broke even (slightly deep in profit) when I bought them in April/May period.

Yongnam rose a lot today after goldman sachs released a very positive research report on it. Last Fri's analyst briefing is actually for goldman sachs, hmm.. They raised the target price for yongnam from 0.430 to 0.460, citing high chance of snagging steelwork and strutting contracts for the IR (>50% of the contracts are believed to be awarded to yongnam, wow...) and more contracts in Dubai. Should be award in Aug/Sept period.

Pls read the full report here:

Their report gave me great confidence to invest more into Yongnam. I always like yongnam because it had great presence in middle east. Local construction works can only get you so far, you need to venture overseas for the branding and the exposure for bigger contracts. This would provide good relief due to the cyclical nature of constructions sector here. The report also cited government pushing for more steel construction rather than reinforced concrete, to prevent over-reliance on sand. This can only be good for yongnam. Demand had been so good that they even set up a steel fabrication plant over at M'sia.

Too bad it didn't go around 0.385, otherwise I would have bought another batch of yongnam as I've mentioned in previous postings. Never mind, chance would come again when irrational Mr. Market is in bad mood. In the meantime, wait and do nothing.

Yellow page had something some positive news. They are collaborating with nokia to deliver localised search content with nokia handphone users. I think it's something like a platform where nokia handphone users can conduct local search using Yellow pages expertise in the directory services. Something like their internet yellow page but on nokia phones. I don't know if it'll be worth a lot of money, but it'll certainly create brand awareness and at least people would know yellow pages had gone from their thick thick books to internet. Good news!

Swiber slided down but recovered to close pretty well. I guess the hype over this stock is over for now (which is good!!). Too fast and too soon is not good for anybody. Let the price consolidate first, build up a strong base, then we can continue the upsurge. Still damn pretty good stock.

Cosco too...always regret why I didn't buy it back at 2.60 something. Went up 0.140 today with rumors flying around of another contract awarded. Crazy...everyday also got contracts won for cosco.

Amara surged up 0.020 today, haha, too bad didn't buy. Charts are still very nice.

I think tmr Pac andes will XR (ex-rights) already. I'll wait for them to send me the rights offer. I'm only eligible for 4 lots more, since I've got 4 lots holding at today's book closure. Heard there's an option to buy more rights too, which I'll do too. See lucky enough to get more rights at 0.52. Might see Pac andes shares drop a lot tmr to take into acct of the rights issue.

Here's my plan:

1. Look out for chances to go into yongnam. I'll buy near support level when overall market sentiment is bad. Add in another 5 to 10 lots.

2. The rest....hold and hold for dear life.

Hopefully my strategy can help me to break off my losses by end of this year. I was hoping to reach total portfolio losses to 15k by end of this year. Already achieved. Now for the magical 10k losses benchmark. See how long it'll take :)

Dow futures -5, europe mainly red.

Monday, June 18, 2007

C'mon construction stocks!!

World market rallied today, with HSI surging by 565 pts!! STI did rather well too, breaking record high to close up 44 points at 3623.

Swiber finally took a breather today after rising from 1.87 all the way to 2.34 in a span of a few days. Was quite strong this morning with intraday high of 2.43 but closed just slightly positive at 2.39 today. First sign of distribution where we have strong start but weak finish. It's okay, must retrace a bit before we can go higher, like this is healthier and more sustainable.

I thought CSC can go past the 0.410 mark but it didn't. Close slightly up at 0.40. Still a lot a lot to me, considering I have 25 lots on this. Yongnam, in which I wanted to add more around 0.385, didn't even come close to my buy in point. Well, I guess next time then. But another construction stock which wasn't in my watchlist - Chip eng seng, rose up strongly (+0.175). Construction stocks taking turns to cheong...sector play.

Pac Andes passed the resolution for the right issue already. So I'll be waiting for my $0.52 rights offer to be sent to me. I'll definitely subscribe it, so that's where I am going to spend my bullets on.

Longcheer...haha, went up so much, 0.105 up to close at 0.795. I wonder what's the big hoo ha about longcheer today. I have absolutely no regrets about longcheer. It can rise to $1 for all I care. Unless it won contracts concerning the 3G network in china, I won't be looking at this stock. I hope all those who still invest can recoup their money (i know some are still holding on), but I've moved on to other stocks already.

Amara seems such an attractive buy. 0.78 is the resistance level, clear that we can see higher gains. Probably won't buy for myself, simply have no time nowadays, extremely busy with work.

Dow -22 now, Europe mainly red. Tmr STI might retrace a bit, go up so much in recent days.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

Weekend reflection

I've checked the charts.

Initially I wanted to sell off CH offshore. But i realised I might be doing what I did in the past, which is to sell off my winners and hold onto my losers. Should let the winners ride and cutting off losers.

Target price for CHoffshore is 0.775
Support level at 0.67, then 0.645
Let's see how the flag target can be reached. Indicators seem to be able to support that flag target.

CSC had a rather interesting charts. On bullish charts, the volume will drop when the price drops and rise when the price increase. This is exactly what is happening for CSC. It broke out of horizontal resistance at 0.385 with high volume last Fri. Last 3 weeks we saw CSC covering the gap around 0.345. Uptrend is still intact. Expect to see more movement upwards this coming week.

Expectation: 0.40 this week.

Yongnam broke out of ascending triangle on 13th June with high volume, now retracement from that movement. If went below 0.38 (breakout point) then the breakout is invalidated. But I don't think they can happen, based on the strong volume and price movement upon breakout. Fibo retracement gave me 2 likely support level upon which the price will resume upward movement. Either 0.400 or 0.385. If it retrace near 0.385 I'll add another 5 lots to my holdings.

Possible support: 0.400 or 0.385.
Action: If touch 0.385 and does not break down, i'll add another 5 lots to my holdings, pending macro condition.

As for Lianbeng, my target is 0.44. Don't know whether I calculated this correctly or not...seems quite a long distance to cover. Should see more movement from it this week. Support at 0.36. I have no action for this stock yet. Just hold and see.

Straits asia powering up. Could be another swiber/cosco. But the rate of ascent is too fast, so it's definitely not sustainable. I'll hold onto this stock first. No action to add on or sell. This is another of those stock that the price went up so high you'll never get the price you bought if you sell now. I have no target price for this, just ride along.

Genting wait and hold. hold...hold hold.....

My portfolio reached 12.6k losses last fri. That means another 12k and I'm off free :) It's really true, trade less and start to see more gains. Oh, not to mention my warrants trading skills still suck, haha, so I won't be touching warrants for now, not even capitaland that I'm eyeing for so long. Unless for new info comes in of cos, haha :)

Have a great week ahead!

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Swiber and straits asia broke out

Dow was up 187 points, bringing STI and the rest of the bourses up too. STI did pretty well, up 30 points when it opened to close at +22. Seems like 3600 is a pretty strong resistance as STI refuses to head anywhere near that region. That's always a bad thing because if it can't go up, it will go down. Fri being the usual profit taking day, might see STI going down. Unless there are major things happening macrowise, I don't think STI will go down by a lot.

Swiber gapped up to close at 13.9% after brokerage research raised the target price for Swiber at 2.76. Combined with the super high volume, I think this just might be a breakaway gap, meaning that I don't expect to see Swiber anyway near $2 for the time being. Powerful... But I think tmr it will retrace a bit, so don't be too happy yet.

Yongnam went down after increasing so much yesterday. It announced that on 15th June, they are going to present some materials for analyst. I think the rumors that are flying around - that yongnam will have higher target price of 0.60 - might just be true. We'll know perhaps by next week, after the presentation to the analyst and after they have done their work.

Lianbeng daily chart looks bad. There is a bearish engulfing candlestick, that might just push lian beng down. Support level 0.355.

For the 1st time in so long, my portfolio losses finally can smell 15 k!! Total losses stand at 15.5k, way down from my 30k losses. Just a little more and I'll be free from my losses :) Again, this is transient, so I expect this figure to fact, it should increase by tmr due to profit taking.

Dow futures +1, europe is all green.

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

So many counters broke out

It's a coincidence or what?

I just mentioned the construction stocks are poised for a breakout, and today we see all of them broke out with super high volume. Yongnam beats everyone hands down, with record volume of 0.21 billion! As I said, once yongnam broke out of 0.38 with high volume, we can be sure of more upside. It closed today at 0.425, up 14.9%.

The other one I mentioned was Lianbeng, also broke out of ascending triangle with high volume. Should be able to see more upside over the next few days. Let's see if it can hit the target of 0.41 over the next few sessions.

CSC still have chance to enter. MACD is going to cross over and this shld be added signal for others to buy.

What I'm really happy is CH offshore. Thought this was a goner, but it broke out
with high volume. I wonder what's wrong with today? Dow dropped 120 points, but STI is still so strong. From -30 in the morning to close at -10.

Wanted to sell my paper trade for the STI puts warrants today. But too sick to do anything. I wanted to sell because of the underlying strength in STI even though Dow dropped so much last night. Never mind, still a lot of uncertainty this week, with a slew of data coming out from US side.

Dow +50 now, Europe a mix of red and green.

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

STI up 16 pts (3 billion transactions)

STI closed at 3560 with lower volume than yesterday (3 billion opposed to 4 billion plus transactions), near the resistance level that I'm talking about. Critical point now:
1) If we break above 3600, a new uptrend will be formed.
2) If we break below 3480, downtrend resumes.

(I'm talking about a timeframe of 2-3 weeks)

Lian Beng broke out of bullish ascending triangle formation with high volume. I'm only afraid that the breakout will result in failure, just like the one on 26th April. Setup looks the same. BUT there's one essential difference : MACD on 26th april is on a downtrend after reaching a peak, while MACD now is on an uptrend. That should be more evidence that the breakout is genuine. Stochastics also show more upside to come.

Technical target is 0.38, based on flag between 15th May to 21st May. CIMB issued a technical target price of 0.41 too. I'll be happy to see it rise above 0.375, that will mean there's absolutely no resistance to stop it from moving higher. Should easily exceed the flag target of 0.38.

Yongnam (above) went into another ascending triangle formation. This one seems more robust in formation than the one I posted last time. Should be able to see action soon, with higher probability of breakup on the upside. Breakout target is 0.38 with higher than average volume. MACD seems like wanting to cross over soon. The charts for yongnam is very very nice.

Pac andes (above) broke out of consolidation zone and had increase everyday (even through those super down days recently) to close at 1.500 today. That's amazing! It bought me returns of over 76% already :) Too bad I only have 4 lots, but it's okay. I'm going to subscribe to the rights at 52 cts each, bring my total holdings to 8 lots.

AND SGX..give up...still cheonging after so many days. Today rose up another 55 cts. Can really huat big time if you just own 5 lots of this on 1st June, where the price is only around $7 plus plus. Now it's $9.85.

Dow futures at -33, Europe all red... I think Dow in trouble tonight. Oh, and Japan might raise interest rate in August...some macro issues to think about.

First time that my portfolio losses went below 19k :) I just have to keep this up, I'll erase my losses soon enough! At the same time, I must know that these numbers are transient in nature and they come and go as days passes. The important thing here is that I must NOT repeat all the mistakes that brought me to these losses, otherwise history would repeat again.

STI 3400 DBePW071031: 5 lots at 0.355

I can't buy STI puts because I can't monitor them actively for the next 3 trading sessions. As such, it's too risky for me to actually buy. I'll just do a paper trade to learn it anywhere. Of course, the learning will be more diluted because it's sort of fake.

I saw DOW opening high but closing neutral yesterday, a sign of distribution already. I expect STI to follow too. Went back to look at charts and noticed a resistance level around 3560.

Intraday chart for STI really shows that STI went up to 3563 before coming down. Surely a sign that STI hit resistance and is coming down. Downtrend haven't been established.

Paper trade:
12 June: Bought 5 lots STI 3400 DBePW071031 at 0.355

To break even, I need it to increase 3 bids to 0.370. Let's see if it's a good decision.

Updated: 20th June

Alright, I suck at warrants. I'll not want to monitor this anymore. At present, the warrants I 'bought' dropped to 0.275. Haha, I can only say I'm lucky I didn't really buy it.

I'll remove the label for now

Monday, June 11, 2007

New level in trading psychology

I think i've reached another level in trading psychology.

Somehow today I wasn't feeling too excited. This is a stark contrast because in the past, after a period of downturn, a upday like today would make me excited and all ready to buy. But I wasn't excited at all. In fact, I just stop monitoring after some time because there isn't anything left for me to buy.

Why do I call it a new level in trading psychology? This is exactly the kind of contrarian thinking that I need to cultivate in order to survive long in the market. I must buy when others are dumping and sell when others are buying. Do the opposite, act in contrary to 'common sense'.

That's why I wasn't too excited when STI went up 53 points to close at 3545 (1.54%) at heavy volume of 4.56 billion transactions. This was mainly held up by the very crazy cosco corp (up 0.400) and sgx (up 0.650). Crazy...irrational exuberance.

Actually I was looking at STI puts, particularly the one with strike level of 3400 ( I believe that's our support level). I'm just studying the volatility of the warrants, might not enter it after all. Looking for signs of distribution again, and further direction by the very volatile Dow.

Above is the chart for capitaland. I'm eyeing the warrants for this stock to ride on the next earnings seasons. Capitaland had been battered quite badly over the last month, from a high of 8.60 to today's close of 7.95. There's a downtrend line connecting the highs from 27th April till today, with the price always closing below it. That should be the moving resistance line. Price seems well supported at 7.90, and also below ema50 days.

I expect big movements in the next trading sessions. Either the price will move above the resistance line (hence breaking the downtrend) or the price will go below the support (hence continuing the downtrend, in fact, accelerating the downtrend since support level is broken). Volume has been thinning, and I believe downside is quite limited, thought there's plenty of things to overcome if it wants to go up. I should monitor the stock for some time, including its warrants to study the volatility and reaction of the warrant to the underlying.

Last year, capitaland reported half year results on 1st week of August. The last reported result was 27th April. Roughly adding 3 months would give me 11th August. That means my expiry date for warrants better be after 1st/2nd week of August. I want to observe 2 types of warrants, one is in-the-money but with strike price near support level of $7.90, the other is out-of-money with strike price near resistance of $8.55. Both must have some volume, otherwise it's very hard to liquidate.

Here's the ITM warrant i've identified:
CAPITALAND SGA ECW071126 with strike at 7.8518

Here's the OTM warrant:
CAPITALAND SGA ECW070924 with strike at 8.2494
CAPITALAND DB ECW070903 with strike at 8.3984

I'll put them on my watchlist to monitor their movement with the underlying before I decide. Connection to blogspot is like crap...that's all for now

Friday, June 08, 2007

Ping Biang Pong *market crashes*

Cosco cosco...what the hell, won US 525 million contract, then awarded another US 699 million contract - that's a total of US 1 billion! Really a powerhouse! No wonder the stock kept rallying since yesterday, even through this super down day. No fair right? Insider trading again.

It looks like the oil rig business doing extremely well. This would last a few years. I've got a couple of oil stocks - swiber and CH offshore, even straits asia resource is going to venture into it.

STI dropped 1.5%, still okay lah. My counters didn't drop much, quite resilient. Construction sector didn't even drop at all, just the usual volatility. That shows where the money is when the bull resumes.

I'm deciding to go in property stocks soon. Of course I can't afford their mother shares, so going to go for their warrants. Particularly I'm looking at capitaland and CDL. Good to buy during dips and hold till their earnings seasons, maybe around august to september (not sure, have to check). Maybe i'll do more study on this towards the weekend, no hurry yet because I believe retracement might not be over yet.

Dow doing well as of now, +40 points. SSEC continued its climb despite the bloodshed everywhere :) Always like that, pple cheong, shanghai crash. When pple crash, shanghai cheong.

While walking around Tampines mall, saw the huge construction works at the former DBS building site (where the challenger used to be). On one of the cranes, it wrote "L&M foundation" :) L&M is a wholly owned subsidiary of CSC, where I freakin hold 25 lots!! Better cheong!!

Even for now, enjoy your weekend!

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Watch out for Dow...hope it stay stable and above 13,440!!

What a good showing by STI! In the morning, it was down like 30 over pts, dangerously close to support level. But by mid morning till closing, it rose and rose, eventually closing at -17 pts. This is the weird part: there's more gainers than losers!

From my watchlist, I saw so many breakouts from high...a bit crazy huh? Cosco is one crazy horse, rallying up 0.210 to close at 2.96! think I had no confidence in this when it was around 2.6 something. Swiber too, rallied up 0.080, continuing its 3rd consecutive mega rise in price. Not to mention Pac andes, close up 0.050 at end at 1.340 at all time high.

I guess this was helped mainly by strong Shanghai bourse, which closed +114 pts after several days of drop. I guess US is experiencing delayed effect from China's drop. I won't be so happy for STI yet. It did rebound off ema20 days though. Must see it cross 3560 first before I think it'll be safe. All depends on Dow actually.

Dow is flirting around support level of 13,440, currently at 13,439.75. Quite stable at that price, looks like support is holding for now. See how it closes.

A bit more analysis:

Pac Andes had a flag target of 1.30/1.31. It undergo a long base building (consolidation) zone since April till recently, before breakout out and fulfilling the flag target. A good time to enter pac andes again will be after it retrace back to support around 1.22. Looks like there's more upside due to the rights issue. Other indicators also support this. Because it broke out of consolidation zone from weekly charts too, the movement will be strong and longer lasting than a daily one. More upside to come.

Swiber tested ema50 day support and rebounded strongly, even going past ema20 days. A strong sign. I think it will exceed $2 resistance by next week. I'm holding on this for longer term, so far giving me excellent returns. Stochastics and macd seem to support further upside.

All the rest of my stock are holding very well. I see a new trend in my portfolio. Firstly, my stocks turnover gets longer and longer, meaning that I hold each stock for a much longer period of time, compared to last time where it was less than 2 weeks (more like 3 days contra period). The second thing is compared to last time where I was always fighting for 1% to 2% returns, I'm not looking at least 10% returns (to beat all the risk of putting it in stocks instead of treasury bills and to beat inflation). My best returns of the stocks I'm stilling holding is Pac Andes (58%), followed by Swiber (46%), then Strait asia (18%). My worst loss is one of the first stock I held since last May - Yellow page (-22%) and 1 lot only, hahah!

If there's anything I learnt from reading intelligent investor, it must be to hold for longer periods of time and the courage to buy when everyone is selling. I'm still not in buying mood now (holding too many stocks) and consistently looking to sell rather than to buy. Might have to wait a little longer (mid July) to clear up some construction stocks i've been holding.

Really hope to see my losses reduced to less than 20k. Now hovering around 20.3k from a high of 30 k losses... haha, laugh it off :) My current portfolio of stocks is 7.4k gains, but of course after minu-sing off my stupid losses...still lose 20.3k.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Watch out tmr, STI support at 3525

Market opened high but closed down negative for 2nd consecutive day, with heavier volume than previous days (for both of the 2 down days).

I think i'm beginning to see market distribution for STI already. When STI is going up and up, volume should expand in a bull market. Suddenly one day, STI would open high but close neutral or slightly negative with equal or heavier volume than previous day. This distribution phase might carry on for 2 to 3 days, always opening high but closing lower or neutral.

That is the sign of market peaking. It's easier to see with candlestick. You'll see 2 or 3 black candles after a series of white candles. The best thing to do is to sell upon the end of the 1st or the start of the 2nd day. That might be the chance to get out before any serious damage is done. Alternatively, that might be a good day to buy put warrants.

I've observed this for a couple of times already and it's quite reliable. I'll do more testing.

First of all, let's look at Dow.

Support level for Dow is at 13,440 (another 40 more pts to drop, as of now!!). If it breaks below it, it means that ema20 days support level is broken...that is very very bad. The next support will be around 13,170. A big big drop indeed. I don't mean that it'll drop in one day (possible, but unlikely). More likely to drop over a couple of days. All the other indicators support a downtrend. Brace yourself for the spill over effects.

We broke out of rising bear wedge on the downside around end of may, but we bounce right back into it. I believe the formation is still valid because STI hits the top trendline and bounce back into the formation (4th June). STI is sitting right on the support level at 3560. If we break that level (highly likely given the uncooperative Dow), we should find support at 3525. That level is near ema20 days.

STI better hold at 3525, if not, we could see it drop to 3450.

I can't monitor actively on Thurs and Fri. Oh well, might as well :) Dow currently -106 pts, europe market is all red.

Chapter 3

Chapter 3 of intelligent investor is, in my opinion, the most boring so far.

It talks about past history of Dow, describing the meteoric rise and fall of the index. Again, in his trademark carefulness, he warns of buying more after the price went up. The worst reason to buy a stock is because the price went up, didn't buffet warned us that before?

Graham went on to talk about the dangers of being overconfident in forecasting. Well, nothing is for sure until it had happened. It happened to me quite often in my trading history too. I was so sure that longcheer can make it and made a big bet on it. Even when it fell off the high pedestral that I raised it, I still believed in it. You should know what happened next.

I guess the key thing here is to be confident enough to believe in your investments, while not putting everything in, in case something happens. Always made your exit plans before executing the trade.

Oh yes, there's one more thing about index. Over the years, the index might rise or fall, but the underlying trend is always up. I guess this is one underlying belief if we want to invest. I might want to enter STI ETF upon downturn and hold for long, still waiting for the right time to enter.

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

I'm back!

Sorry for being Missing In Action :)

Haven't been actively monitoring market for some time, so I'm a bit lost. I'm just happy that Shanghai bubble had been burst for the time being after China increased stamp duty. The big bad crash wouldn't come for the next few months, I'm sure.

I saw on TV mobile that China might put some investor friendly policy. I've got no details on that, but could it be the reason why we see a good rebound from Shanghai today?

My laggard stocks went up already. Straits asia went up last fri and yesterday to record high of around 1.41 before closing down 0.060 to 1.35 today. Swiber went as low as 1.64 or something to bounce right back to 1.77 today. Looks like swiber is still one hell of a good stock. It's been dropping for weeks already but it didn't manage to go below ema50 line, so that's a good sign. Good time to enter swiber now.

Construction stocks saw a brief rebound on monday, but without actual news, it just went back to where normal today.

SGX makes me drool...broke out of ascending triangle for both weekly and daily, a super strong trading setup. Classic ascending triangle accompanied by decreasing volume and expanding volume upon breakout (not shown below, below is weekly charts for sgx).

That's all for now. Dow -63 now. Okay lah, been breaking new records for the past 2 trading sessons, take a break. STI tomorrow should see some retracement, nothing serious to worry about.

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Construction funds :)

Below is the extract headlines of THE EDGE magazine. Listed down those construction stocks (speculative in nature, take note!) that might see a rise in price within 2 months.

Have money buy do buy all and put it as construction mutual funds :) Maybe we should pool money to buy, haha! Hmm, noticed they didn't put down Lian Beng :) Vested in 3 of the construction stocks.



BBR HOLDINGS - Has an outside chance of getting a sub-contract.

CSC HOLDINGS - Awarded $240 Million contract by Marina Bay Sands for piling and foundation work.

Hong Leong Asia - Awarded main contract to supply concrete to Marina Bay Sands.

Yongnam Holdings - Favourite to clinch the contract for the erection of the steel structure.

Pan United Corp - Awarded contracts to supply Marina Bay Financial Centre and Marine Bay Residences with concrete, analysts thinks its supplies may be needed for IR.

King Wah Corp - Analysts believe it could get a contract.

Koh Brothers - Awarded $240 Million Marina Barrage and $100 Million Common Services Tunnel.

Penguin Boat Int'l - Company has bid for the scaffolding contract.

PSL Holdings - Supplying construction hardware and hydraulic hoses to Marina Bay area.

Tat Hong Holdings - Supply 30 crawler cranes for IR Site.

Tiong Woon Corp - Nothing at Marina Bay yet.

United Engineers - Favourite to clinch the M&E project.

Dow intraday analysis (part 2)

Hmm, I was wrong, a bit :)

Dow did break out of the descending triangle on the downside around 1 pm, but as I mentioned, the volume when it broke out is not high. This means the selling pressure is not strong. I also mentioned that other technical indicators suggest that further downside is limited and upside is more probable. Immediately after breaking out, Dow tested the support turned resistance line around 13,640 twice (as shown by the white candle touching the line).

Dow succeeded on the 3rd try, breaking out of the resistance line with increased volume. It rose up to hit another resistance level, this time at 13,660 but couldn't break above it. If it cannot break above it, it will go below it. And so it did. It even broke down of the support line at around 13,640 again (notice that when it breaks below support line, the volume again did not increase).

Dow tested the support turned resistance line once and succeeded on the 2nd try. This time there's an increasing surge in volume that propels it all the way past the resistance level at 13,660. It finally closes +40 pts, another record high.

If I'm trading warrants intraday, there are a few trading opportunities found in this chart. I would opt for put warrants with strike price as close to 13,650 (ave price for Dow) as possible, with very close expiry. This is to increase the volatility of the warrants. Since I'm not going to hold beyond one day, it must be very volatile and closely related to the rise and fall of Dow, otherwise I might not be able to earn enough to sell at a profit. Put warrants as opposed to call because of the descending triangle formation, which is bearish in nature.

The best time to enter the put warrant is after 12 pm, when Dow test the support level. At this time, there will be 2 peaks to draw the descending top trendline and 2 troughs to draw a horizontal line to define the descending triangle. Of course, even before the triangle formation is defined, we can already expect it to form. Just waiting for 2 peaks and 2 troughs to confirm the formation only. The next instant Dow went up again (preferably as near the top trendline as possible) would be the entry point. I think close to 1220 something is a good pt to enter.

We wait for the break out on the downside to occur. Cut loss level would be if Dow went up higher than the top trendline, especially with increased volume, as that would mean the descending triangle formation is negated. That's why the entry position have to be as close to the top trendline as possible to increase the safety level.

When's a good time to sell? The best time to sell is not when it breaks down immediately (though on hindsight, for this chart it is). The best time is for it to test the support turned resistance and wait for it to drop BELOW the lowest point. It might take repeated tries. This is when other indicators can help to see if the breakout is genuine. If it did not drop below the lowest point, a downtrend is not established. If it can't drop, it will rise. Sell off if it didn't go below the lowest point.

In this chart, the best time is around 1 pm, after it tested resistance once and didn't fall lower. Looking at MACD and stochastics would also confirm that downside is quite limited at that point in time. Doing that would net you around 15 points. If the warrant is chosen correctly (the most volatile), it should be a net profit. Not really worth the risk, haha!

Maybe i'll do intraday for HSI too, long time never practise TA.

Intraday closing analysis of Dow (part 1)

Okay, break out on the downside faster than i thought.

The breakout on the down side is not accompanied by surging volume though, but it didn't matter. After breaking down below the support line, it went up to test the new support turned resistance line. It didn't break through it (currently testing the resistance line again).

So scenario 2 (in previous post) turns out to be true, as expected of this type of formation.

But I didn't like is the volume, doesn't seem to go down much even though it broke down out of the descending triangle. If it doesn't go down, it must go up right? What's more is that MACD histogram and stochastic seems to suggest more upside. Maybe temporarily, who knows?

My take on the closing: below 13,640.

(Maybe next time I'll do paper trades on warrants. This should help me train up for the day when I go back to warrant trading again)

Intraday analysis of Dow

Ever since I washed my hands off warrants, I seldom do on the spot technical training since. Time to try it :)

Above shows the TA intraday chart for Dow. Let's make some analysis.

It shows a descending triangle, accompanied by decreasing volume (slightly). It's a bearish formation, with lower highs and almost the same lows. The two converging trendlines will meet somewhere before 2pm. But then, we should see 2 possible scenarios:

1. The price break above the top resistance trendline, and the bearish descending triangle formation is negated. Must be accompanied by volume surge when it breaks out, otherwise might be a false break. Quite unlikely to be scenario 1.

2. The price break below the bottom support trendline, and the bearish descending triangle outcome is realised. If accompanied by volume surge when it breaks out on the downside, it'll go down much lower until another trend sets in. This scenario is more likely given the probability of a downside due to this bearish formation.

Might see a decision soon :) I'll do a closing analysis of this to review my technical analysis on Dow.

Friday, June 01, 2007

STI up 37.19

STI bounced back with a vengeance today, closing 3548.32 with +37.19 from previous close. Not safe yet, must see a higher high and high low before we can conclude that a new trend is in place.

Most of the stocks rallied (except mine!). Okay lah, every dog has its day. Straits asia went high today while swiber gets closer to my support level. If swiber hits 1.62 and rebound, I might enter another batch. I might do a detailed TA on this again. It's an important decision as I'm holding 10 lots of this a rather low average price of 1.29.

I was alerted to OKP. Might have some power in there, we'll see next week. Too tired to do any analysis.

Dow +28.6 now, europe mostly green.