Thursday, May 25, 2017

Is Haw Par a golden tiger or a sick cat?

This is a guest post by the kind folks over at Investingnote. It seems that now they have an in house technical chartist and an analyst as well. Good for them. It's quite a detailed analysis with FA and TA perspective, but this kind of company isn't my cup of tea, LOL. The chart failed to trigger any buys in my system, so yeah, it's good to know about the company and keep it in mind the next time you use their signature muscle rubs or ointment.


A Golden Tiger: $Haw Par(H02 )

This column is jointly written by @fayewang, @calvinwee, @gordon_ong and @devinnath

 -Faye is both a fundamental analyst and economist by nature. She is a global thinker who’s open-minded and enjoys learning from the market.
 -Calvin is a fundamental analyst at heart and an ardent disciple of value investing. He relishes the process of searching for undervalued stocks and enjoys collecting dividends from his stocks.
 -Gordon has a demonstrable interest in equity investments, financial markets, and negotiating deals. As @NTUInvestmentClub president, he has an understanding of what factors drive an organisation’s success. -Devin is a technical analyst who balances FA and TA in his investment decisions. He believes in using news and FA to spot the right stocks and rely on TA to give him the lowest risk-to-reward ratio possible.

Brief Background: Haw Par Corporation Limited is engaged in manufacturing, marketing and trading healthcare products; providing leisure-related goods and services, and investing in properties and securities. The principal activities of the Company are licensing of the Tiger trademarks and owning investments for long-term holding purposes, the history of the brothers Haw and Par traced back to the 19th century. The company distributes its products in the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Australasia, and Europe.

Product Segments: Haw Par operates in four segments, namely
1) Healthcare - principally manufactures and distributes topical analgesic products such as Tiger Balm and Kwan Loong.
2) Leisure - provides family and tourist oriented leisure alternatives through its owned and operated oceanarium, including Underwater World Pattaya in Thailand.
3) Property - owns and leases out various investment properties in the Asia region.
4) Investment - invests primarily in quoted and unquoted securities in Asia region.

Performance Summary: Haw Par recorded a dip in profit from operations and investments of 2% mainly attributable to lower dividend income from investments. However, it should be noted that all operating segments generated higher profits in FY16. The healthcare business segment continued to contribute significantly to the Group’s revenue with a 16% increase in revenue from $152.6 million to $176.4 million. Correspondingly, healthcare’s profit increased 37% from $48.1 million to $66.1 million with higher sales and reduced operating expenditure. However, revenue from the leisure business segment registered a sharp drop of 34% to $8.4 million due to the closure of Underwater World Singapore (“UWS”) in June 2016. Therefore, leisure recorded profit of $0.9 million in FY16 compared to loss of $4.3 million in FY15 due to the one-off impairment charge in fixed assets of UWS in 2015.

Financial Highlights:


 1. Operating performance Haw Par Corporation’s revenue has increased steadily since 2012, and this is also reflected in its profit before taxes. However, PBT decreased slightly by 1.6% yoy due to the lower dividend income received from investments. In that light, it should be noted that all of its operating segments generated higher profits yoy, however the profit contribution from Investments dropped by 31%, leading to an overall decline in PBT.

2. Financial & cash position Haw Par’s Operation Cash flow recorded yoy increase since 2012, and FY16 was no different since it reported higher profits across all its operating segments. However, there was a sharp drop in its total cash flow by 30% yoy. This is attributed by the decrease in financing cashflows by $24.8Million. Correspondingly, it recorded a fall in the lower cash and cash equivalent in the balance sheet by 0.51% yoy.

3. Segment performance Traditionally, Haw Par Corporation derives its revenue from the investments income segment. The overall group revenue for FY16 at $201.6 million grew 13% yoy, with Healthcare and Property recording 16% and 25% increase in revenue respectively. Operating segment profits before interest expense and tax for Healthcare and Property grew 37% and 22% respectively. However, investments income decreased 31% due to lower dividend income from investments.

4. Stock information Haw Par Corporation has a very low D/E ratio of 2%, hence it can raise additional financing if they wish to acquire more assets in any of their business segments. On the other hand, Haw Par does not have a remarkable ROE and ROA, hovering between 4-7% from 2012-2016. This is likely because most of its business segments are in the mature stage and have limited growth potential. However, it should be once again noted that it derives most of its revenue/profits from its interest in UOB, UIC and UOL group, hence its overall profits is highly dependent on the performance of these 3 companies. Haw Par has a dividend yield 1.9% for FY16. We were unable to find a comparable company for Haw Par Corporation in the SGX stock universe, hence, we decided to skip the peer analysis for Haw Par Corporation.

SWOT Analysis


1. Renown of brand. Brand of Haw Par retains a history over 100 years that can be traced back to 1920s. With famous Tiger Balm as its representative product, Haw Par held competitive advantages of competition in the healthcare industry considering exceptional brand awareness. Despite the long history, Tiger Balm became iconic for the sake of its incorporation in Singapore traditional culture. Brand loyalty is another benefit from well brand management. It is brand loyalty that become a significant obstacle for new entrants, as they may fail in the competition due to strong brand loyalty of customers to existing players.

 2. Uniqueness of products. Haw par differentiates its Tiger Balm from other healthcare products with secret herbal formulation. Therefore, the effect of substitution seems limited to Tiger Balm. For sure there are other pharmaceutical manufacturers who provide analgesic products, for instance, liniments or oils made by using Chinese medicine. Nevertheless, they can merely bring competition but cannot replace Tiger Balm. In Singapore market, the uniqueness of Haw par is more apparent, it is difficult to find a listed company that operate similar business as Haw par does.

 3. Organic Growth of Core Business. Though Haw par is involved in various industry such as property, leisure, and investment, its core competency is derived from healthcare segment. Growing proportion of profit from investment segment has been observed in recent years, which makes Haw par looks like an investment holding firm. However, it is worth noting that revenue generated from its healthcare products enjoy continuous growth with an average rate of 40% over 5 years.


1. Haw Par’s leisure segment. Main business of Haw par’s leisure segment is its Underwater World Pattaya (UWP) in Thailand and Underwater World Singapore (UWS) in Singapore. Profit contributed from Leisure segment has experienced continuous decline since 2012. The segment suffered from loss in financial year of 2015, which is related to the terrorist attack at Bangkok in August 2015 and flash flood in Pattaya. Leisure’s profit swung to black in 2016, while Haw par decided to close UWS afterwards. The close was claimed due to the expiry of lease contract on Sentosa island, albeit more likely to be for profit improvement purpose.

2. Investment portfolio. In Haw par’s balance sheet, financial assets occupied 81.9% of its total net assets. In other words, majority of its net assets is made of securities of UOB, UOL, and UIC, which worth $2 billion in 2016. Therefore, Haw par’s profitability is closely tied to the performance of UOB, UOL and UIC. The investment portfolio cannot be considered as absolute ‘weakness ‘of Haw Par, but it exposes Haw par with greater volatility to the performance.


1. Further expansion. To fully utilize the renown of Haw par’s brand, Haw par can make more efforts to expand their business for greater presence in the global market. At the current stage, income generated from local market merely occupies 18.6% of the total number, meanwhile 35% of the revenue contributed by other Asian countries outside the ASEAN area. Based on the data, we can conclude that Haw par has exploited and penetrated the Asia market, but seems has not started its exploration in other potential countries. With sufficient cash in hand and light debt burden, Haw par is at an appropriate position for global expansion. The expanding strategy can be introducing new products in various markets through franchise.

2. Segment restructuring. Haw par has closed the Underwater World Singapore (UWS) in Sentosa island, thus the segment of leisure greatly shrunk in 2016. As mentioned in the weakness part, the leisure segment suffered from plummeted revenue and the loss even eroded profit from other business. It might be wiser if Haw par gradually shift their investing emphasis to healthcare and investment business only.

3. Long-term flourish healthcare industry. The growing number of aging population and better awareness of healthcare jointly lead to stronger demand for healthcare services in the future. Advanced technology allows Haw par to extend its products line and seek for more opportunities in this resilient industry. Threats: 1. Increasing competitors. Rapid growth in healthcare industry has attracted more companies to enter and share the market pie. Increasing number of competitors is the biggest threat Haw Par is facing now. Products such as Yunnan Baiyao from China and Mopidick’s from Japan have brought intense competition to Tiger Balm.

Key Drivers & Limitations 
Expanding to new markets and modernizing the Tiger Balm brand

Haw Par’s strategy of widening Tiger Balm’s product offerings to include Medicated Plasters, Mosquito Repellents, Cooling Patches and Lotions, as well as modernising the packaging and marketing strategies, seems to have revitalised its attractiveness to consumers. Haw Par has also successfully capitalised on the recent ASEAN mosquito virus outbreaks to increase sales. With such outbreaks being frequent within the region, Haw Par has a consistent sales driver.

Haw Par has also capitalised on Tiger Balm’s brand strength to attract distributors and remain asset-light – recently, it has partnered with Alkem to expand its distribution network in India. Haw Par’s distribution network remains formidable throughout the world. Such a business model means that Haw Par can sustain its high margins in the foreseeable future.

Acquisition for growth in Healthcare/Leisure segments 
Haw Par is currently seeking acquisition targets to utilise its net cash position. It has stated that it may do horizontal integration of other healthcare products to add to its Tiger Balm brand. Such an acquisition will support the overall business-level strategy of dominating the topical analgesic market through consolidation under a single brand. Haw Par also seeks to acquire leisure destinations to utilise its decades-old expertise of running tourist attractions. Depending on the acquisition target, this will most likely increase Haw Par’s low ROE and unlock shareholder value. Haw Par seeks to maintain its low profit margins; hence it will most likely acquire products rather than expand overseas using physical stores.

Exposure to Banking and Real Estate Sectors
Haw Par not only has equity investments within banking and real estate, but also has its own property division. Hence, its asset value and investment income stream are exposed to the high earnings expectations on SG banks, as well as occupancy rates/rental yields from its SG and MY properties.

Analysts’ Opinion 
Key takeaways by @calvinwee

Haw Par is a household brand synonymous with its flagship product: Tiger Balm. However, with deeper analysis, one will realize that over the years, Haw Par Corporation has diversified into different business segments such as leisure and property. Also, management has shown great prudence in maintaining a strong balance sheet and free cash flows. Most importantly, it derives a substantial portion of its profits from UOB, a big 3 bank in Singapore. I am of the view that its healthcare segment has the potential to grow, albeit at a slower rate, with its expansion into European and US markets. Barring no major changes in the 3 companies that it is vested in, Haw Par Corporation is a safe haven amidst the volatility in the market.

Comments below is written by @Gordon_ong:

Haw Par is a Portfolio of UOB, UOL and UIC at deeply discounted values 
To find out what is Haw Par’s current equity stake in UOB, UOL and UIC, we first assume that there are no changes in shareholdings since FY16 annual report. To test this assumption, we will see what is the fair value change on these financial assets (FVOCI) for 1Q. If there are no changes in shareholdings since the last annual report, the fair value change should be 182m.


 The actual fair value change as stated in 1Q report is 189m, almost the same as assumed. Hence, we can conclude that there are no significant changes in Haw Par’s investment holdings.


Hence, based on the share price of $10.43 and market cap of $2.290B, the Total Enterprise Value is $2.015B. This TEV includes a liquid portfolio of 3 shares with combined market value of $2.2B, Investment Properties of $200M valuation, and a business worth about $1B. Based on a sum-of-parts valuation, TEV should equal to $3.4B and market price should be ≈$15. It can be argued that the market has grossly undervalued the price of Haw Par. In fact, purchasing Haw Par shares means acquiring an investment portfolio for cheap, as well as a stake in the investment properties and the underlying Haw Par business for free. 

Usually, stocks that trade at a discount to NAV have negative operating profits. However, in Haw Par’s case, not only is the Tiger Balm healthcare business still profitable and growing, the net assets are not hard-to-dispose-of fixed assets, but equity stakes in other businesses. 

One consideration is whether Haw Par is a “value trap”, a.k.a Haw Par will hoard the dividends paid by its investments within its business without distributing to its shareholders. Even in this worst-case scenario, as Haw Par’s main businesses are profitable, defensive and secured by a deep economic moat (brand strength), Haw Par’s cash position and equity stakes will just grow indefinitely until a catalyst unlocks value for shareholders e.g. continued growth of healthcare product segment or some form of M&A. To test whether Haw Par hoards cash, we simply measure the investment income received vs. dividends paid out.


 While Haw Par does retain a portion of its investment income, its other business segments contribute such that the total dividends paid is higher than an equivalent weighted portfolio consisting of UOB, UOL and UIC. Notably, healthcare segment’s growth in new markets support Haw Par’s ability to pay out higher dividends recently. 

The Dividend Payout Ratio and Historical Dividend Yield also show that dividends from Haw Par is near equivalent to investing in a weighted portfolio of the 3 stocks. Even though the dividend yield of Haw Par is slightly lower, the excess cash is going into Haw Par’s cash reserves. Hence, the 48 b.p. is not lost, but merely locked up within Haw Par’s cash reserves, which shareholders still own a stake of. 

Overall, Haw Par does indeed distribute its investment income from its equity portfolio to its shareholders. A shareholder of Haw Par will gain more dividend benefits compared to directly holding an equivalent portfolio of the three shares. As the risk of Haw Par suddenly hoarding investment income is negligible given its track record, there should not exist such a discount on valuation for Haw Par’s equity portfolio. 

Unless you believe that UOB, UOL and UIC are grossly overvalued by the market, as long as Haw Par’s TEV remains lower than the market value of its equity portfolio, it makes complete sense to buy more of Haw Par. While acknowledging that Haw Par has been consistently undervalued for the past 10 years vis-à-vis its equity holdings, the gap between Haw Par’s value and its equity holdings has narrowed, signaling that the market has taken notice. 

Investors should view Haw Par primarily as an Investment Holding company at discount prices, with its success as a healthcare product company as a pure bonus.

For investors interested in $UOB(U11), can consider purchasing shares through $Haw Par(H02) for greater value. A portfolio of banks, real estate and healthcare seem to fair well against interest rate risk. Vested in Haw Par; DYODD. Downsides: During expansion, management may decide to modify Haw Par’s healthcare segment from an asset-light distribution model to an asset-heavy model, requiring cash. However, unlikely based on conservative management’s previous reinvestment rate. Also, SG Banking and Real Estate sectors may weaken affecting value of equity holdings – yet holding an isolated UOB/UOL/UIC stock will be even worse in that scenario. 

Technical Analysis 
 From TA (Technical Analysis) perspective, followings are the analysis of Haw Par as of 23rd May 2017. This part is written by @devinnath.


-Taking highest high and lowest low from 12 month time frame (July 2016), it appears that Haw Par stock price has been testing the resistance line at $10.500 since the beginning of May 2017. 
-Channel width is considerably wide, contributed by the bullish steam at the start of 2017 (Jan-Feb). Although an untested weak support range is formed between $9.745 and $9.837, strong support remains low at $9.360 
-Stochastic Oscillator (14,3,3) and MACD (12,26,close,9) both agree that there is no apparent highlight of trend being formed in the past month, although both indicators signalling a slight uptrend (MACD : 0.1117) and minimal buying pressure in the market (slow %K = %D : 65). 
-Parabolic SAR on the other hand acknowledges the position of the price on upper boundary of Bollinger Band (20,2) by showing a possible price stop and reversal, hence the stock price might be taking a bearish stance in the near future. 

I believe that it is rather reasonable for investors to expect a significant attempt to break the strong resistance line at 10.500. This attempt will be indicated by a sharp hike in price above $10.500, which the result will determine the future trend direction of Haw Par stock. 

Best case scenario: If price manages to break the resistance line and stays there for at least 2 days, then high chance it will continue to take its bullish stance. Once its position is reinforced, it will be the perfect time to enter the trade. 

Worst case scenario: If price fails to stay above the resistance for 2 days, similar event with 12th May might reoccur, e.g. price broke through the resistance but failed to maintain its stance as bearish engulfing pattern appears the following day. It will form a double top pattern which might impose a very strong selling pressure. This might be followed by breaking the weak support towards the strong support line. 

Conclusion: In order to mitigate risk, It will be in our best interest to wait and see how the market behaves around the resistance and let time reveals itself. 

This article is written by by @fayewang, @calvinwee, @gordon_ong and @devinnath from InvestingNote. 

InvestingNote is the free social network platform designed specifically for crowdsourced investment ideas, news and interaction for the holistic stock investing community. Investors can identify trends, market movements and sentiments through crowdsource analysis that can make them better at investing. With free access to a wide variety of stock data, investors can upload research reports, utilize technical charts and make stock price targets that will be visible to other investors. It promotes financial literacy and connects investors for better investing outcomes. Our users come from a wide spectrum of the investing community: remisiers, brokers, brokerage houses, financial writers, financial bloggers and the general retail investors.

Monday, May 22, 2017

The math of crisis investing

I want to find out what is the possible rise in my portfolio after investing during crisis, and in so doing, I can find out the optimum amount of cash to keep. The problem with cash is that while it's very useful during crisis, there's a cost to it. It's the drag on your portfolio return, that is, your cash is rotting in the bank doing nothing. On the other hand, investing throughout the ups and downs will mean that your portfolio volatility will be swinging in extremes too. Not for the faint hearted.

I start off by looking at Straits time index in the past. These are the major crisis that happened and what the STI returns look like after while. The first dates indicated the lowest point in STI while the second date refers to the apex of the bull run that occurs after market recovers. The % refers to the percentage increase i.e. 220% means if you invest 100k, your portfolio will increase by 220k.

1998 Sept to 2000 Jan - 800 to 2580 - 220%
2003 Apr to 2007 July - 1220 to 3900 - 220%
2009 Mar to 2015 Apr - 1450 to 3550 - 145%

The last current bull run might be still 'running'. As you can see, all these are from hindsight. It's not clear until after the fact had happened. Since I can't predict the future, well, the past history is all that I have.

Assuming that we can only capture 70% of the bull run from trough to peak, we are talking about 220% x 70% = 150% gain or a 250% increase in portfolio. Let's use that figure to guesstimate our returns from crisis investing.

If we keep 100% cash and invest during crisis, we can realistically expect to get about 150% increment. That means we're looking at 225% increase in our portfolio. If we keep 80% cash, and invest during crisis, we can realistically expect to get about 200% increase in our portfolio. If we keep 60%, we can expect to get a 175% increase in our portfolio. If we keep 40%, it'll be 150% increase in portfolio.

Here's a few thoughts:

1. If you think the returns are too low, you can leverage. But it comes with its own set of problems.

2. If you're hoping to become a millionaire after the crisis, you have to be realistic. Ask yourself how much you have in your portfolio now and how much cash you are keeping and how long are you waiting for that big crisis to happen. We haven't even talked about whether you have the balls to go in while others are busy rushing to get out.

3. Since STI tracks only blue chips, which are safer, we can technically do a few rounds of the crisis investing. When STI is at the trough, we get into blue chips first. Once the blue chips recovered and STI goes up, people will take notice of the rising market and get in, so we get out of the blue chips and enter the mid/small caps before they do. When the blue chips had finished rising, the next rotation will be the mid/small caps, so technically we 'compound' our cash faster. Instead of going in and out during crisis, we recycle our capital and do it within each cycle itself. Easier said than done, of course, but that's the plan. The execution depends on your skill.

4. For me, I aim to get around 40% to 80% cash during crisis. That should realistically get me a minimum of 150 to 200% increase in my portfolio growth organically. Haven't include recycling of capital or injection of new capital or dividends.

5. We only get 2 rounds of solid crisis and I've wasted one already. I can't waste it anymore. Save hard, work hard on my craft and execute it. I don't want to be caught in a crisis without the cash to utilise, or the psychology to take advantage of it. If executed properly, this can save me a few years of my life.

Updated (22nd May 2017)

Thanks to theintelligentinvestor from Investingnote community from spotting my calculation error in the percentage. At first, I still thought that crisis investing is still alright. Now, with the changes in the error, an organic portfolio growth of 150 to 200% is crazy and I know it's do-able!

Monday, May 15, 2017

The evolution of needs and wants

My baby is slightly more than 3 months old now, and I learnt a lot from the experience of being a first time father. One of the first things I get to observe is how the needs and wants of the child develops as he gets older.

When my son is less than 1 month old, the term 'needs' and 'wants' are interchangeable. You can even say that the needs and wants are indistinguishable from one another. The default mode of the baby is sleep. If he is not sleeping, it's because of the following reasons:

1. Food
2. Change of diaper
3. Hug

Took us a few weeks to get it right, but once I thought I mastered the art of baby soothing, the baby evolves. After 1 month to 2 month, the needs and wants changes, so we have to adapt to them again. Here are the needs:

1. Food
2. Change of diaper
3. Hug in the right manner
4. Rock

Okay, it's still alright, I thought to myself. I can't hug it anyhow, because the baby needs to feel right. I also have to rock the baby to quieten it down. Thankfully I have a gym ball that my wife uses pre-child, and we can sit on it while hugging the baby and bounce up and down on it. That makes the rocking part manageable, because at this point in time, we're holding a 5kg weight that can scream, puke, cry and smile.

Around 2 to 3 months, just as we thought we got the hang of it, the baby evolves again. They say change is the only constant, and I say the person who came up with that saying must have been parents. So their needs/wants became:

1. Food, but must be of the right temperature
2. Change of diapers, but must be fast
3. Hug in the right manner, but must change position every now and then
4. Rock, but only after doing all the above
5. Temperature - must be cooling enough
6. Play - you need to spend time interacting with me!
7. Sleep in the right position

Wah, suddenly as the baby's sight improves and the brain functions start to whir in action, there's more and more things that we need to do right. If the past history can be extended to the future, there'll only be more needs and wants, and soon there will be a differentiation between the needs and the wants. Then what happens?

Depending on individuals, there'll come a inflection point where the needs and wants stop increasing. It starts to stay constant, then decrease as we age further. All the wants are removed, leaving only the bare basic needs. And when we're on our dying beds, I suspect strongly that the following needs are as follows:

1. Family
2. Happiness
3. Free of suffering

I've mentioned earlier on in the article what my son's 1st month needs are. Let's review them again:

1. Food
2. Change of diaper
3. Hug

Hey, isn't that the same wish list as that in our dying beds? It's of a different form but it's essentially the same theme. Food, change of diapers and hugging is the expression of the same values as family, happiness and free of suffering, but specifically exhibited by a baby. Food and change of diapers is the baby's equivalent of 'free of suffering'. Hug is what the baby's equivalent of 'family'. I've always said that a child is like a buddha-baby. A child is extremely enlightened in what the important things in life are, and we, as adults, can take a leaf out of his/her book.

Saturday, May 06, 2017

Fear-based selling

There's a lot of fear out there. Everytime you switch on the news, out of 10 news, perhaps 8 are bad news. Maybe some air plane crashed, some terrorist attacks somewhere, some murders elsewhere. Then comes the commercial interval selling things. It's known that fear can trigger emotional buys (for certain items), so is this the way to pre-suade consumers to part with their money?

A typical example would be that of a insurance agent. The sales pitch is that you don't know when you're going to die, and there'll be huge medical costs, and you must be responsible for your family and so on. That's fear based selling. It can be for a tutor too. Oh, your child is going to fail his O'lvls because his foundation is so weak. There's only 4 months to the major exams and he's so weak in his foundation, so do you want to increase the number of lessons during June? Fear based selling. How about a furniture seller? This special promotion is only valid until today, if not it'll revert back to the original price which is 20% more than the current. Oh, this is the last piece left, and someone just called me to ask me about it. Do you want me to reserve it for you (by paying a deposit) so that the other caller don't be able to have it?

Fear sells. But it leaves a bad taste in the consumer's mouth after buying it.

In the stock market, there's also fear based advice. This stock is going to run if you don't get this. Or I've a whatsapp group that offers great advice for people because there are so many people in there with eyes on the market 24/7, and I'm offering you at this great price for only a limited period of time. Everyone is making big bucks in the chatgroup, so why don't you join? Fear of missing out is also a fear based selling.

As STI marches past 3200 and still moving upwards, beware of more and more people doing fear based selling for all sorts of things. If memory serves me right, in the last major bull run, there are a lot of gurus offering crazy returns by attending this workshop and that, a lot of cheating incidents and a lot of funny ways to make crazy returns in oil, land banking, crabs, trees or what have you. You see it everyday in the newspaper, sometimes with ads like these taking up a quarter of the page. You don't see such things when the market is depressed.

Look at this piece of news back in 2007 here. It talks about university undergraduate making huge money in the stock market, so they are chasing grades and trades. Or this one, also in 2007, here (courtesy of musicwhiz). This one is a memorable case study of a student who made up to 80k per month trading in the height of the bull run. Just a few months later, he lost all and more, including his parent's life savings of 300k. I just want readers to be aware of such emotional battles. When people are making huge money and you have a lot of cash rotting in the bank, are you able to withstand the pressure and all the fear based selling and NOT commit to mistakes?