Wednesday, February 28, 2007


Wow..just came back and saw a surprise.

Basically all the stocks froze just the way it was when I left home. I realised that sgx had a total system crash, all the online trades are off quotes so all online trading down. Best...never see this kind of things before in a world class financial hub before. Haha, must be too much volume for sgx to handle, total crash. Either everyone rushing to sell or everyone rushing for bargain hunts. I kind of think it's the latter.

Btw, system restored already, I received the news from dbs vickers clarity news, at 22:14, which is like 15 mins ago.

Overall, don't be panicky. In the morning, I saw almost all the stocks kena sell down, albeit at low volumes. But you know what, before lunch, sti was at -180, 15 mins after lunch, it rose up to -90 and eventually hover around -120 until system crashed around 4pm. Then everything froze. I think if system did not froze, we had a very high chance of recovering to -80. No cause for panic.

I woke up very early for this special day to buy puts. You know what? Nobody wants to sell. Even my sti put warrants that I thought cannot make it already, I still managed to turn over a -78% loss to a -22% loss. That's how bad it was, in the morning. Luckily I sold off, because afternoon rebound like crazy. I bought more CDL call warrant today. Thought it was a bargain again, haha. I did this to average down.

I keep my hands off hsi totally even though I'm very very tempted to buy call warrants. After a major selldown, a rebound is very likely. But I thought never mind lah, let it go. I'm holding too many risks as it is already.

CityDevl had outstanding results, net profit jumps 75.5% thanks to bumper home sales in singapore and global hotels operations. CityDev earnings were also boosted by its 53-percent owned U.K. hotels subsidiary Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Plc which last week posted a 27.6 percent in annual underlying profit. All in all, excellent. All we need is for the macro issues to be settled and off CDL will go, in a blast.

Macro issues do seem to be settled. I posted earlier that China repudiated rumors that its going to impose tax on stock capital gains to curb investment, which is the reason behind shanghai harsh drop of 8%, which also caused dow to fall somewhat. Today shanghai rose nearly 4% offsetting the big drop. So that's really fine.

Something to worry is US GDP fell below expected. It posted 2.2 but was expected to be 2.4. OKAY, not such a big difference, so I think the reaction is not significant. Anyway, as of now, Dow is quite alright at -15. Anything less than 100 is no big deal.

I'm quite certain STI and hsi will rebound. And that might not be a good sign. As someone wise told me before: when it rebounds again, the real party begins. The next rebound is an excellent time to lighten your load. If not, might be too late already. I'll be looking for puts. I'm post here when I think it's time.

Wed, Feb 28, 2007 -- SPECIAL DAY

1. DOW crashed 410 down in one single session - worst since sept 11, 2001

2. STI opened -180, closed -120 (the BIGGEST freakin drop I've ever SEEN, it's even worse than May 2006 correction)

3. HSI opened -700 pts, closed -500. A freakin big 700 point drop..can you imagine, call warrants basically halved its value and puts doubled.

4. SGX crashed at 4pm, all online trades (not sure about broker trades) are off.

The sky is falling

I'm seldom blogging at this time of the day.

Usually when I do, it's either I'm done trading for the day, or the website is down and I cannot access. So guess which one?

POEMS and dbs are down today. DBS sometimes can access, sometimes can't. I'll call it unstable then. Some conspiracy theory points out that when market is extremely bad, these brokerage houses cater to rich clients, so small retailers (like me) won't have a chance to dump your shares higher than those rich clients. Well, who knows such things other than those involved right?

As expected, Dow jone crashed 500 points down but recovered to close at 416 points down. Seriously, have you seen this kind of drop? I haven't in my one year of trading seen this kind of fall. Not even last May/June correction rivals this. I heard it's the biggest single day drop since sept 11 in 2001. Of course this kind of drop makes other world market fall a lot, otherwise dow j ones will have no face.

HSI opens -700 points, STI opens -160 points, nikkei opens -600. How's that for a start? STI..haven't seen this kind of magnitude since I traded too. My put warrants for STI shot up. Not too bad, I thought gone case already, still can recover less losses (overall still out of money).

I guess the question is: is there a cause for concern? Is the dreaded bear coming?

I think not just yet: Here's why:
1. Dow fell like bird shit because there's a computer glinch which causes a drop of 500 points. This causes panic which generates the actual dow jones to fall so much. Crap right?

2. China announced that they are not going to tax 20% capital gains for stock investment. This rumor which is flying around caused yesterday's china bourse (and HK) to crash. Since it has been challenged, I think there's till a hope left.

3. The selloff today is low volume. It dropped so much because it gapped down, it's not those kind of falls that sells until it falls so much. Basically it gapped down because in the morning, pple just sell at very low price. That's all. Look at the volume for the selloff for each stock, it's rather mild. Real crash would not be like that. In fact, some stocks are recovering already. Shit lah, genting opens at around 0.68 or something, would have grabbed it if I didn't chicken out and if dbs is more stable.

4. HK announcing their budget as I blog. Heard from newspaper that they might consider lowering taxes to compete with us and to improve Tsang's popularity. Both are valid reasons. If that happens, today might be an excellent day to buy call warrants. But I won't do that lah. In a way, I'm so glad I sold off my calls at a loss yesterday. Otherwise today can't even recover a decent amount of my invested capital. Alls well that ends well, I guess.

Here's what I think...if STI breaks below 3000, I think will be very bad sign. Psychological important resistance. For HSI, since it's way below 20,000 points now, it's a bad sign already. I remember long time ago (last yr Dec?) there's a gap to be filled around that region, might be covering that now. I wouldn't touch any HSI yet. Actually I wanted to buy puts for HSI when I woke up today, but nobody want to sell me. Hhaha, looks like market makers are scared too.

All the best, everyone! Losing money is not the end of the world. As someone I knew said, sometimes you should just sit back and think about what you have instead of what you have lost. Optimistic? hell yes, but either way still going to live, so why not choose the happier way?

One last thing, on hindsight, it's a bad idea to buy CDL call warrants yesterday. But I couldn't have foreseen this. Still can afford to keep, since it expires in Sept. At this kind of reactionary crash, no point looking at results. Good results also no use.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Worldwide market crash (maybe a correction?)

Why did worldwide market crash today?

The most important reason that comes to my mind is the talk by alan greenspan, predecessor of Bernanke. He said that a recession (mind you, he did not mean correction) is hard to avoid for US towards the end of the year. I believe he means this in a good way, because the moment you say that bubble is about to burst, the bubble stops bursting. His words still carry enough power to cause STI to drop like a tank by 70 over points.

Next, China shares is downgraded by some brokerage house (can't remember which, must be those foreign houses since it carries so much significance) as being overvalued. HK is thus affected, dropping 340 points without much resistance at all. Good thing is that HSI is sitting on ema50 days. If it fails to provide support, HSI is gone case. 20,000 is a good point to watch out for.

STI dropped 70 over points today with wide spread market disaster. Not even the big caps are spared. Property stocks like capitaland, CDL, DBS, UOB all tanked down. Basically if you look at the STI chart today, it's one way down. Only towards end of the day we can see some respite. STI sitting on ema50 days too. If it fails to support, byebye.

US side tonight is going to be a very important day. A slew of economic data is going to be released. Besides that, some world news might create some market tension. A suicide bomber tried to kill Cheney when he visited a US military base in afganistan. He wasn't killed but at least 14 are dead. Geopolitical issues at hand here. Europe dropped 100 points as of now...that should be a good sign of where US is heading tonight.

Bad sign huh? Bought some CDL warrants today. We'll see if that's a bad decision tmr. Tighten your seat beats on the way down.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Raffles education

Raffles Edn sees 40% profit rise a yr for 5 yrs

RAFFLES Education Corp Ltd, a regional operator of design and business schools, expects to grow its net profit by at least 40 per cent every year in the next five years as its student base expands, particularly in China.

'A 40 per cent annual growth in our bottom line in the next five years is achievable,' Raffles Education CEO Chew Hua Seng told XFN-Asia in an interview on Thursday.

In the last three financial years, Raffles Education's net profit increased by an average of 81 per cent annually, registering net profit of $32.7 million in the year to June 2006. The growth momentum has been sustained in the current financial year, with the company's net profit up 73.9 per cent year on year to $24.7 million in the first half to December.

China has been a key growth driver and will remain so, Mr Chew said. Raffles Education currently has 4,300 students in China, accounting for nearly half of the group's 9,000 students.

Mr Chew said the group's student headcount in China is set to more than double once the acquisition of a majority interest in Easycall International is completed next month.

'The group is likely to have more than 15,000 students by the end of the current financial year to June, three years ahead of schedule.'
- Raffles Education CEO Chew Hua Seng

Earlier this month, Raffles Education bought an initial 24 per cent stake or 62 million shares of Easycall for $25.7 million. It has an option to buy another 35 million shares from Easycall shareholder Wong Fong Fui for $14 million.

Mr Chew said the share purchase along with earlier purchases of Easycall shares from the open market will give Raffles Education a majority interest in Easycall.

Raffles Education, however, will not be required to make a mandatory takeover bid for Easycall as the transaction has been exempted from Singapore rules requiring investors who had accumulated more than 30 per cent stake in listed companies to make a mandatory takeover bid.

Mr Chew said he was attracted to Easycall because the company owns Boustead College, a school in China's Tianjin University that offers courses in business administration, computer science and information technology as well as literature and the arts. Boustead College has 6,000 students and the acquisition of a controlling interest in Easycall will further strengthen Raffles Education's presence in China, he said.

Easycall is Raffles Education's second acquisition in China. It bought a 20.16 per cent stake in Oriental Century Ltd for $17.08 million in December. 'These acquisitions are earnings accretive,' Mr Chew said.

With the rapid increase in the company's student base in existing schools and the additional students coming from Easycall's Boustead College, Mr Chew said the group is likely to have more than 15,000 students by the end of the current financial year to June, three years ahead of schedule.

In 2005, Raffles Education had targeted to have 15,000 students from its schools in Singapore, China, India, Australia and Thailand by 2010. The group had less than 6,000 students when the target was set.

Mr Chew said the Indian operations, which Raffles Education started some two years ago, are expected to break even in the current fiscal year. 'I am confident we will do well in India.'

Mr Chew also expects earnings at 60 per cent-owned subsidiary Hartford Education to contribute positively going forward. 'Next year, you'll see even faster growth from Hartford.'

Raffles Education bought into Hartford in April 2004 when Hartford was still loss-making. Raffles Education has since turned around Hartford, which made a net profit of $1.17 million in the year to June 2006.

Mr Chew said Raffles Education has managed to make Hartford profitable by increasing the number of students enrolled to its proprietary diploma courses, giving Hartford better margins. - XFN-Asi

One of the stocks that I would like to hold long term includes this gem. Now is not the time to buy yet. Wait for the weekly charts to be better first. Today's closing 2.30

News to share

These are some news that I heard across the floor.

First, Indonesia navy prevents the supply of granite overseas, not only the sand. I think what will be affected will be construction stocks. Perhaps genting too. Genting hasn't been doing too well. I think there's even a brokerage house downgrading. Okay, brokerage house downgrading could be because they want to buy, so..keep your eyes open. I'm still not vested in Genting yet. My price is around 0.71, haha!

Secondly, HK is going to announce their budget this wed. Will they come up with a cutthroat tax rate to compete with singapore, its main rival in this region? Stay tuned. HSI today fell 200 points, with no strength to rebound. Perhaps people are waiting for the budget announcement before they commit. I'll wait too. Tmr's a crucial day for HSI. HSI is sitting on a fence, it could rebound off the support or it could break it and go down from there. We'll know tmr. I'm still in HSI call warrants, haven't cash out yet. Currently losing money.

Longcheer XD today. The price dropped as expected. This is due to dividend given off which affects the value of the company, hence the drop. Hard to say which way it'll go.

I bought City development warrant today, 5 lots at 0.315 only. City development going to announce its 4th quarterly results on wed (don't know whether it's market close or lunch time). Today, there’s an announcement by another of their subsidiary – e-solution. 2005 posted 7 million profit, 2006 posted 95 million profit..incredible. I expect them to do pretty well because all their subsidiaries like ascott reported rather good profit. Today city developlment mother share fell, probably after a rather huge increase last week. MACD sitting on fence now, with the blue line waiting to cross over the red line, a good buy signal.

Dow should behave good tonight. Futures for dow jones increase 42 points before opening, a good sign that it'll have a strong opening. I hope Dow can close strongly too, so that HSI and STI can be pulled up by the strong US side. As of now, Dow is up by 30 points.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Genting net loss 47% for 2007

HSI went down -250 points then went up to -98 points in one day.

Not bad not bad, shows its strength. This movement today covered a gap shown a few days earlier already, so it should get ready to rally up from now. Today's drop to test support is an indication of how strong it is. Not too bad at all.

Today's highlight is genting's report. I can't be bothered to look through everything. I only see that the net profit for 2007 drops 47% from 2006. Is this a sign to get all worried? No lah, I don't think so. Firstly, casino IR is not even built yet. Hell, the money to built it isn't even ready. Based on the future prospect of genting, this stock is good to keep for at least 4 years (2011 is the opening ya?). Long term investment man.

Seriously this stock is overvalued at this point in time, I hope it'll drop lower so I can accumulate. Either that or I'll wait for them to reissue new genting share and get it there and then. Either case, I want a share of this government sponsored big project that will leap singapore away from poverty. Ya, right.

Osim broke ema20 days average resistance. A very good sign. From what I can see, it's still on uptrend, so shouldn't have to worry now. Hope you did buy when I asked you to last time, haha!

STI again broke new high (is it? I think so). I think the overall sentiment is cautious. People keep thinking that the market will crash anytime soon. Haha, maybe that's what will prevent the market from crashing. Anyway, my put warrants rose 1 bid up.

Because longcheer is behaving, my overall loss lessened somewhat to 20.1 k. Not too bad. Next month I'm going to get quite a lot of dividend from my stocks. At least $500 from longcheer already, haha, so that should alleviate my situation too.

Have a nice weekend!

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Osim's results is out

Just saw Osim's results.

Was it good? I'm not good at fundamentals. I just looked at the important things they announced. First is the net profit: It dropped 28% year on year despite the increased in revenue of 24% (including brookstone). Secondly, decent dividend given at 1.43 cents per share. Quartely profit fell 1.4%. What I like about Osim is that it is vying to be a global brand instead of focusing its business in singapore alone. Singapore's market is too small to make huge profit, so I think as long as their marketing strategy is sound (so they can differentiate from its competitors), it should be doing fine.

But what I think isn't important. In fact, the results itself isn't important too. It's the market reaction to the news. Based on the fact that OSIM shares rose quite decently before the annoucement, it seems that it should be just fine. I really don't expect a selloff nor a big rally tomorrow. Watchout for shortist though. It's going to hit the moving ema20 resistance at 1.06, might be a possible target for shortist to short osim. If nothing goes wrong, it should meet gap resistance between 1.17 to 1.26 (yes, a huge huge gap), with 1.17 as major resistance to hurdle over. Good luck!

Tmr is genting's turn to report quarterly results. I hope to own some of genting, so might be looking at this stock. It looks very cheap now, but I still think it has room to go down from the charts. Actually a lot of room to go down. Possible fibonacci retracement to go down to 0.71 like that. If it does reach there, just buy lah, then put in storeroom, after 5 years come back and see again. Possible shortist action because today genting cross down below ema50 days. Bad sign before the quarterly results are out. Good luck!

My sold capitaland warrants...wa, rallied up to 0.64 today. OMG, I just sold off at 0.510 and one day makes so much difference. Really what the hell. Now too dangerous to buy, I'll wait for this to retrace. A very good stock to hold, everyone note this: CAPITALAND C31!!

HSI super strong. Must be taking cue from Nikkei. After the rate hike for japan's, nikkei went up to close positive 192 higher than previous day. Nuts...I thought rate hike is bad?? Anyway, Nikkei is super strong even though there's bad news, it shows the underlying strength of the current bull. HSI too, so strong man.

HSI charts look perfect. MACD gng to cut above red line, stochastics blue line turning upwards, RSI trending upwards with a lot of room to rally, EMA 10 and 20 trending upwards too. Might be going up tmr too, if not it might be a down day. Actually I'm not scared of this week because there's no china market to disturb hong kong. It's next week when China's bourse opens for business, don't know how they will react to the rate hike they announced before they break for the holiday last week. We shall see.

Longcheer also not bad. Risen up a bit today. I'm just afraid it's just a technical rebound because the volume is not convincing. Anyway, nothing much I can do. May the shortist stop targeting longcheer!

Tmr might be another cheerful day for everyone. Dow seems ready to rally after their futures rose 21 points as of now. Looks like it's going to be a strong start at least for dow.

Everyone who reads the blog, do write some nonsense for me to read ok? Sometimes, esp. when I'm feeling down and don't feel like writing anything here, it's those comments that keep me going. So do me a favour, just write something after you've read it. At least, I know there's someone reading it.


Words from the wise

This is from Joshing, a skilled technician in my opinion. He does short term trades, usually a few days to minutes that kind, and is dead accurate in the reading of charts. He does not believe in complex indicators, just simple price actions and volume because he once said that indicators are lagging, so why believe in them?

I like his style a lot.

Here's why I chose trading over long-term investing for stocks -

If you could read the market, and could see when it will go up and when it will go down, would you want to take that risk to buy the stock and hold so that you will be able to capture all the potential upmoves?

By holding, you are already taking in the risk of upmoves and downmoves that are unnecessary because you can already see when it will come.

Holding for long-term means your risk and reward is better than those in the short-term? Whoever told you that? Have you thought about it to prove that claim or do you accept it because it sounds logical?

If you hold for long-term, you are accepting risk that could mean future profit warnings, company bankruptcies etc etc for as long as you hold. If I trade on short term, I am only accepting these risk for a limited short time span. Whose risk is higher? Long term or short term?

Risk is not highly correlated to reward in this situation. Your reward will only come when the price rise. Does that mean, the longer you hold, the more your reward, because you take on more risk? We all know from market experience that this is not true.

If that were the case, then the longest listing company in history should have the highest share price.

Conversely, the reward comes to the player who is able to detect and capture the upmove which can be done on short term and not necessarily long term.

You can find his postings in CNA forum: market talk under the thread "Joshing's holdings". Interesting fellow.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Sold my capitaland warrants

First thing in the morning, I sold off my capitaland warrants.

Don't know whether it's a curse or a blessing, because initially I wanted to sell off in the morning then buy back lower in the afternoon like the whole of last week. Unfortunately, I think this week is property play, all the stocks involved in properties like capitaland, kepland, city development, sp land, all cheong like nobody's business. Really no goverment type of cheonging man.

Too bad lah, could have sold off at a higher profit. Bought at 0.4125, sold at 0.510, made a good 22% profit. When I looked at the price of the warrant just now, wow..blew my mind, it hit up to 0.560. Aww's okay lah, mustn't be greedy, because it could turn out to be the other direction too, ya?

Tmr if there's weakness in capitaland, i'll might get the warrants again. Then again, maybe not. I just saw the charts, seems like it's at or near the peak of its uptrend already, thought uptrend is still intact. Maybe just go in another round, see how first.

Longcheer also don't know what happen, just cheong up so much, shaved off a bit of my losses. Hope it has bottomed out already and should go up. Hope and cross my fingers.

HSI a bit worrying. Even though today increased by around 70 points and I feel that the strength of the bull is still there, it's afterall on weak volume. So, might not be too sustainable. Maybe everyone still on holiday mood, I think.

I still haven't sold off my call warrants, hold so long already man. The whole of this week, China's market will be closed, so there won't be any leads for HSI. It's all on its own. They are going to announce their budget soon, so I hope there's some rally going on there to push up HSI.

Really got a shock when I saw STI closing today. Increased by 56 points! And it's a broad based rally with blue chips and penny rallying. About the only counter on my watchlist that is not rallying is genting. Wow, good start of the first trading day of the fiery pig year! This shouldn't be a time to get complacent too, I would lighten up more load if I can instead of loading more now. If really must buy it'll also be quickies. Buy and sell on same day or a few days. Dangerous times we're heading to.

Looking at the charts for STI looks fantastic though. Looks like more upside for now, though be cautious and don't think this joyride will never end. Dow don't look good today (at -56 as of now) but I think our regional bourses should be diverging from theirs, so it shouldn't matter as much.

Tmr is the all important osim's result. Let's see if the results is above expectation, then it'll hasten the uptrend which is is experiencing right now. Good luck!

Friday, February 16, 2007

China 3G license report

ANALYSIS-China 3G: seeming delay masks network rollout 16 Feb 2007 14:20

By Sophie Taylor and Judy Hua

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The latest setback on China's rocky road to issuing third-generation wireless permits isn't all it seems -- rather than pushing back the launch, Beijing is giving local players such as ZTE Corp. <0763.HK> a headstart, and kickstarting a network rollout.

After years of delay and with a potential $10 billion of network gear orders in the balance, Beijing is extending pre-commercial testing of a homegrown TD-SCDMA (Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access) standard to 10 cities from the original five.

But analysts say that trial extension is in effect a soft launch or rollout that favours local gearmakers -- who have more of an edge in TD-SCDMA versus foreign makers more focused on better-established W-CDMA and CDMA2000.

Consider: the parent of top global wireless carrier China Mobile Ltd. <0941.HK> is on the verge of awarding 18 billion yuan ($2.3 billion) in contracts to build and support TD-SCDMA networks for that fresh round of trials, several state newspapers reported last week.

China's largest listed telecoms gearmaker, ZTE <000063.SZ>, is expected to win nearly a third of contracts slated for gear makers, worth about 10 billion yuan, local media and analysts say.

Other gearmakers likely to get TD-SCDMA contracts are Alcatel-Lucent , Nokia -- through ventures or alliances -- and a sprinkling of local players.

"This is a compromise proposal -- it means the 3G delay this time is not a delay in building TD-SCDMA networks, but just a delay in issuing licences," said Steven Liu, a Hong Kong-based analyst at DBS Vickers Securities.

Global players such as Siemens , Nokia, Motorola , Ericsson and Nortel Networks have jumped on TD-SCDMA -- which will provide rapid Web and multimedia services -- since it was conceived in 1998.

But most may be forced to take a back seat when network contracts are handed out ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

"Should the government issue the licence at the end of 2007 or early 2008, time will be very limited for building the W-CDMA and CDMA 2000 networks," said Vincent Dong, Beijing-based analyst at Norson Telecom Consulting.

"Foreign vendors can only benefit a little from the TD-SCDMA rollout from their joint ventures in China ... but it is too little to offset a loss in W-CDMA and CDMA2000 networks," said DBS' Liu. "Foreign vendors might be the loser."


The official launch of 3G licenses looks increasingly distant, with Ericsson Chief Executive Carl-Henric Svanberg the first top industry executive to all but dismiss the chance of a 2007 rollout earlier this month.

But several executives who work closely with the four major telecoms companies still expect licences this year.

"It always happens here that before they do anything, that's always when people are saying, 'it's not going to happen'," said one, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

China, keen to build up national technological standards but wary of face-losing hiccups, is walking a middle road between further delays in its TD-SCDMA rollout, and staying cautious.

The extended 3G trial, which authorities say is necessary to ensure a smooth start-up of the data-rich standard, will start in March and may last until the end of October. BNP Paribas analyst Marvin Lo wrote on Wednesday that China Mobile would step in to lead and kick off the TD-SCDMA effort.

That would sideline other operators and give China Mobile time to consolidate its dominance of the world's largest telecoms arena.

"The TD-SCDMA trial will be run in an almost commercial way but there will be no licences for this trial, and this way the Chinese government gives the TD-SCDMA more wriggle room to expand," said Florian Pihs, Beijing-based assistant vice president at Analysys International.

Still, China Netcom <0906.HK> has said the issue of TD-SCDMA licenses would not necessarily have to wait until trials were completed in October, and that licenses for the three standards could come out simultaneously, according to research reports.

Countless bets have been made and theories struck about when, exactly, Beijing will give the official go-ahead. China needs to award licences soon if it wants to offer high broadband Web quality for visitors to the 2008 Olympics.

Most of the 10 trial cities -- Beijing, Shanghai, Qingdao, Xiamen, Baoding, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Qinhuangdao, Tianjin and Shenyang -- will host Olympic events.

But the relevance of even the long-assumed Olympics deadline may have faded with the TD-SCDMA trial extension, analysts said.

"Guessing the timetable of 3G licensing is not that meaningful now," said Norson Telecom's Dong. ($1=7.755 Yuan) ((Editing by Edwin Chan & Ian Geoghegan;; Reuters Messaging:; +86-21-6104-1791))

Seems like the hot money in hongkong stock exchanges is about china telcom companies. I'm sure that some of the 10 billion contracts will spill over to Longcheer, as it is one of the leading handphone design companies over there. From the analysis, it seems that the delay in 3G annoucement now, is due to the delay in issuing licenses to companies and not a delay in building the network. It's clear that the contracts will be handed out to major handphone companies, some of which are clients of Longcheer. The license have to be announced early so that the companies have time to roll out the full services of the network. Olympics is scheduled to be held in August 2008, so there's a good chance that license are given this year so that companies can prepare in advance for next year.

That ALONE should be reason to believe in longcheer.

BTW, China already announced an increase in interest rates. I hope hsi won't take a beating next week. Some analysis of hsi report that a lot of people are holding long positions over the holiday because they believe the first trading day of the year of the pig is going to be a good one. Whatever, seriously...knowing analysis..but I do hope hsi will hit 21 000 target. Cheers!

Happy chinese new year!

Finally logged on to dbs

Finally I can log on to dbs vickers online!

Incredible, can you imagine how 'happy' I was, after not being able to log on since 840am till 4pm? Don't say that I didn't tried calling them at their useless customer service hotline. The line is really too hot, since last year, I can only recall being able to talk to a real person hiding behind the false front of automated voices, perhaps like 5 times?

Dbs vickers online website reached a new level of lowness! It really made me resolute to sign up with poems after CNY! I must make a deposit of 1000, returnable after 3 months, NOT PROBLEM! Hear that DBS?! If you don't want to earn my commission, I'll gladly pass it on to someone else!

HSI behaved well today. It dropped quite a bit before returning with strength to close at +30 today. It totally changed my bearish view after today to slightly bullish. I just need another white candle to confirm the reversal in trend, with the stochastic lines cutting over each other. Macro-wise, a bit of uncertainty here and there. HK might not be doing too well after singapore lowered the corporate tax to 18% to compete against their 17.5%. The effects won't be so soon, but it'll trickle over time. Another thing to worry about is the rumor that is floating around...that china might raise the interest rates of borrowing after CNY. This might have a reactionary effect of lowering down HSI after CNY. Not to mention the record breaking high of dow for two consecutive sessions.

As of now (cos I can't do any trading today), I'm still holding onto my call warrants for hsi. Going to chao sng already, hold so long. But I really wish that HSI can be strong enough to recover from this week's down, otherwise my losses might get worse. I'm also holding onto capitaland warrants. This one already making 600 plus, but I think there's more upside for capitaland based on the charts. I'm just waiting for a bit more and I'll sell off to cash in. Next week, I'll watch out for my warrants. BTW, it's really profitable to short capitaland warrants intraday. It's perfectly safe because I'm already holding on to the warrants, fully paid for. During the day, I'll just sell at what I think it's the intraday high, then throughout the day, I'll look for opportunities to buy back at a lower price. Can make some money like that, very safe.

Longcheer sucky as usual, dropping and dropping to 0.75. I think selling should stop after CNY. Seriously, what did longcheer do to deserve this? It is still making profits, just below expectations. It is still consistently giving out dividends. It has good news coming out (from china's 3G announcement). Bad things could be that longcheer has warned of lowered next quarter earnings. The management very honest, already give people warning of things to come. Greed and fear rules the market I think.

Still holding..what to do?

Portfolio bleeding even worse now, all due to longcheer's continued fall. Now standing at a staggering losses of 22.5k. This amount even exceeded my all time high losses of 18k last year. Haha, I really outdone myself this year. Still, I'm happy with my trading, esp. my buy of capitaland warrants which is trying to recoup my losses. Every bit helps now, and this week I've earned 130 plus from shorting the market from the shares/warrants that I own.

The anticipated market correction should be coming? But maybe if everyone is thinking about it, it won't least not so soon. Overall, I think STI still quite bullish as trendline is not even broken.

I'm really having a red red Chinese new year. Hope your portfolio is better than mine!

I checked the charts for's certainly raised a lot of eyebrows today with the rise to 0.160 intraday high. Based on daily charts, a correction is due. But weekly still got more steam to come. Tread carefully and remember that the market rule nowadays is to buy on rumors and sell on news. You might not want to wait till the results is out...remember clearly my longcheer experience. Won't want any of you to have the same experience as me.

Osim should have bottomed out already. I think it's the best time to buy now, if you want to average out or hold for long term. Should't see anymore downside for this one.

Can't log onto dbs again

It's early morning.

I tried to wake up early to short the market, but I can't log in. This is like..what? The 100th time that DBS hung up on me? Sigh...I'll get the poems account after new year, for sure.

Why short the market? Today confirmed profit taking day. Longweekend ahead with only 3 trading day, but US side is not closed for holiday. ANYTHING can happen especially with Dow closing high on the 2nd or 3rd consecutive day. A correction is due which might spill over to Singapore.

IF...if I can log on, I'll sell off my capitaland warrants. Hold so long already. Oh, I shorted it too. I sold off at 0.485 in the morning, wait the entire day to buy back lower at 0.475 just before budget announcement. Shit lah, should have wait more patiently because it dropped to 0.46. But it's okay lah, the worse I could have done is to sell it and not be able to buy it back to realise its gain. Anyway, this warrant got plenty of time, it's expiry is in June.

Longcheer undergo extreme shortist action today of now already dropped from 0.815 to 0.750. I'll have gladly participated in it..damn dbs.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Daily rantings

Turns out shorting hsi yesterday is a pretty okay decision.

Today hsi went up all the way to 150 points before coming down again towards market close for hk. Overall, it gained 77 points. I'm slightly bearish for hsi, so will try o get rid of my call warrants as soon as possible.

Something is not right. HSI cheong up 77 points, STI also cheong up 33 points, but all the counters are red. Very funny right? It's either someone manipulating STI to make it look really nice before budget day, or I'm imagining things. Why would anyone want to do that? Simple, imagine what happens when you reveal your bad things about the budget and the stock market crashed before you announce, I think that would cause a lot of public distress, right? haha, but it must be my fertile imagination.

On the whole, I feel market is getting weak. Simply no strength to push for whatever rally. Even this fake rally is restricted to certain stocks (i'm not sure, i think it's bank stocks because their results are coming out soon).

Capitaland rewarded me wholesomely by posting quite a good profit, but I can't remember the figures. My warrant shot up a lot in the morning before I woke up. Capitaland warrants very funny, because it goes up and down a lot of times throughout the day. Considering that it does not event track index, and capitaland stock price stays more or less there, the movement of the warrant is actually quite volatile. I should take note of this. Tmr I'll wake up early morning to monitor the situation (why? because my warrant shot up so higher when the market opens, such a waste not to sell it...been like that for past few days already). Basically I'm still very bullish on capitaland, with the director releasing all the juicy news about acquring this and that. Considering the volatility of the warrants, I might just sell high and buy low. If it goes higher than forget it loh, I'll just take profit.

Yup, so that's my plan for tmr.

Longcheer, same lah, although today is contra sell day (esp impt because for those who did contra buy, and have no $$ to pay, they will be forced sell today), the stock didn't drop much. Quite steady, until towards the end. Some broker house also project its target price (lowered) to 1.64 (or something like that). I never believed in their target price, but I do hope a lot of people out there believe them and make a buy in. That should provide the defense against any shortist out to short this bugger again. But I think longcheer is quite safe from shortist, because there's a lot more stocks out there who got short down. Good example, china energy. Oh ya, another news for longcheer. Today some STUPID funds who bought longcheer some time ago did a major sell off during the last couple of days back. NO WONDER LONCHEER tanked down! Stupid funds, hope they lose a lot of money man.

Dangerous times out there huh?

Saw global voice shot up on high volumes today. Heard it's due to good results out near end of feb. Haha, for those who have this baby, congrats! My charts are not updated yet, so can't check.

Tmr is the all impt budget day. If corporate tax (CT) drop by 1%, I think market will be around the same level as today. If CT drop by 2%, I think market will rally, and we'll have a good CNY. If CT nvr drop, someone please complain to authorities about some senior guy talking nonsense. On the other hand, might have contrarian views at work here, meaning if rise 2%, selldown to take profit. Market is so complicated, who can predict? Still have the GST crap also, trying to squeeze all of us dry. this the price we have to pay for political stability?

Share something stupid here, from a book I read at kinokuniya, Bugis:

Old Osama have a house, E I E I O
There are some men in the house, E I E I O
And a brain here, brain wash there,
Wash here wash there, everywhere wash wash
Old Osama have a house, E I E I O

(there's more...of course, but I can't remember)

Good trading tmr!

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

I'm okay

HSI tanked like crazy, crashed 450 points down.

I wanted to sell of my call warrants, which I did. But towards the end of the day, I just bought it back at a lower price to short it. If today fall so much, tmr can't be falling another 500 again right??

I hope tmr hsi would recover somewhat, probably i'll just pare down my stacks, or just cut losses. Afterall, trend line not broken's just dangerously sitting on it. Just like our dear STI. We'll on the top of a peak, can fall either side now, haha!

Tmr is the release of results for capitaland, which i held its warrants. Shld be okay lah, considering there isn't a major selloff today. Well, it did but it recover nicely.

Tmr will be better, ya?

To all my well concerned friends who saw my posting last night, don't worry, I'm not going to do stupid things. My life is still worth living, and it's made much more worth it to know there are many caring friends around me. I thank you sincerely from my hearts. We should go out for the bloody good german beer at millenium walk again someday!

Monday, February 12, 2007

I'm feeling SOooo much better now

I am feeling so much better.

It comes after you've accepted you rightful place in the stock market. I, for one, belongs to those who lose money (a lot) in a bullish market. Okay, I suck big time. But I'll improve.

I told someone that if I ever going to die, I'll just put all my money PLUS go and borrow 1 million or something THEN I'll just whack one warrant. Within the day, I'll know if I made multi-fold or go bankrupt. Why go suicide at MRT tracks, go do a 'big' one lah!

Of course, I'm not desperate yet. Just fantasizing because some idiot thought he's very smart. He's in Sunday times, increase his portfolio of game money from 125k to 700 million. Nuts, he just bet on warrant and happened to bet on the right direction.

I'm diverging, I realized. What was I supposed to say? Yup, I felt happy after I accepted my position and my losses. No big deal. I'll make it back. I WILL MAKE IT BACK.

Meantime, STI and HSI on dangerous peak now. Esp HSI, something dun feel very right. It's going to peak soon and go downtrend. I'm still have long positions on my call warrants, going to have to cash in sometime soon. Now is a bit losing (by 4 bids), so might have to wait. I just expect hsi to do one of the big +300 points in one day stunt this week, and I'll just sell off my warrants. put warrants didn't move much even though STI dropped 50 points today. Crap. Nevertheless, underlying trend for sti still intact.

Capitaland warrants making money already, not much though, around 70 bucks. Hoping for it to rise more. This week, I wanted to sell off all my warrants then go on holiday liao. Secretly, I'm wishing for a big crash (sorry guys, misery likes company).

Longcheer still dropping, although magnitude is lesser. Dropped 0.035 to stay (rather stable) near 0.895/0.900. I've no illusion that the worst is over, in fact, I think it's begining only. Should see it drop maybe to 0.80 or worse (gulps!) 0.77.

Wish everyone had better trading than me! Cheers!

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Why punish longcheer so harshly?

I'll post a short one, half drunk now.

Longcheer got a massive punishment from the harsh market. Its results is not so good, but surely not as bad as other counters who are making a loss. It dropped from 1.18 to 0.935 in one single day, can you imagine my losses??

This one really got to put in cold storage and freeze it, can't touch it for now. Hopefully when China announces 3G licences, longcheer might wake up. For now, simply untouchable, especially when all the shortist all come out to short this stock to all time low.

My portfolio is bleeding concussively, internally, massively at a loss of 16.6k.

Almost reaching my level of 18k last year already, haha

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Longcheer result good or bad?

HSI went roller coaster today.

Before that, DBS cocked up again. Went I checked the website, I found that the warrants which I bought is gone from my watchlist and I couldn't check the quotes. So, I called them up and eventually all was settled just before 10am. Wasn't that pissed off today.

Okay, HSI went down 250 points straight from start. Some banks thingy happening in hong kong. Just look at the charts below, the black line is yesterday's closing. I saw my warrant price plummet all the way from 0.400 down to 0.270. But I wasn't so panicky cos I invested 10 lots only, unlike last time with 30 to 40 lots.

But look at the charts after lunch. Shot up from -350 to +55 in 2 hours. Crazy! But from this episode we can be sure of the underlying strength of hsi. Heard that it's from foreign funds investing back again, which is good. Price range for warrants go from 0.27 to 0.43. Imagine if you bought at low, you'll have made close to 50% in 2 hours. If you have the guts. I don't.

Longcheer...dunno whether it's good or bad. Quarter to quarter results drop by around 7%. By half year to half year increased by 14%. Volumes of sales increased around 50% but revenue dropped. They also said that for 2007 profit should be lower than 2006 because of stiff competition. However, they give 1.6 cts dividend, which means their cash flow is pretty strong. Consistent dividend too. Fundamentally sound? I don't know. Can llengs help me? longcheer dropped 0.050, almost giving up everything from yesterday's 0.06 gain. Tmr is good? Or will it undergo a selldown?

Bought capitaland warrants today when it dipped down because STI went down. I thought it's a steal. I bought 5 lots at 0.415 and 5 lots at 0.410, to average down at 0.4125. Waiting for Wed/thurs to sell. Capitaland charts look very good both weekly and's nuts.

Cross my fingers tmr for longcheer.

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

3 Cheers for Longcheers!

Quite happy today :)

Firstly, I bought hsi call warrant again after it dipped down in the morning. I bought another 5 lots at 0.39, averaging upwards to a average buy price of 0.3375, total volume of 10 lots.

The effective gearing of my warrant increased slightly to 17.49 from 17.21, so let me do an estimate of the price given different hsi levels:

Today closed at 20,680 - 0.400
20,800 - 0.440
20,900 - 0.475
21,000 - 0.510 (jackpot)

I've already broke even and getting $140 for my warrants already, and I'm still waiting for the uptrend to persist on. Today it closed slightly higher by 24 points, after a massive drop in the morning. I guess underlying strength of hsi is still very strong. It just need to close another 100 more points for MACD to turn upwards. Stochastics and RSI had already shown clear uptrend, with ema14 days turning upwards too. I think 21,000 just might be possible :)

Longcheer today made me the most happy! Weekly and daily charts show that downtrend might well be over. In fact, it shot up during the last 30 mins before market close for today, probably in anticipation of the release of its quarterly results tomorrow. This rise exceeds even the fibonacci rebound target that I set for it (between 1.17 and 1.20). The next point to look out for is 1.29/1.30, once it breaks that level, I think we should be aiming for the sky! Target set up various brokerage houses range from 1.3, 1.5 to even $2 (dbs).

Trying to get into capitaland warrants but it shot up too high. Results out next week on 14th Feb. Since this is STI component stock and I think STI will rally during budget day/CNY rally AND the dazzling results from capitaland last year, I expect capitaland to cheong up. Just hope either tmr or Fri there'll be a down day and I'll go cheong capitaland warrant. Don't know whether still got chance or not, because it broke all time high today. So just hope tmr will be profit taking or some crap. Crossing my fingers.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

New strategy for warrants

I am trying out a new strategy for warrants.

I bought call warrants on HSI last friday and basically just forget that it was there. This approach was quite different from previous trades on warrants because I was typically glued to the screen and had to keep on refreshing. This is because firstly I bought rather big volumes, secondly I was trying to do intraday trades. Even a one bid difference with high volumes will make me break even already.

I thought this was rather risky because my technicals isn't there fantastic..yet. I won quite a lot during dec simply because it was the end of year rally. I bought lots of calls and that's what made me recoup all my losses for 2006, plus interest. During jan, I lost a lot because I was constantly playing against the trend. When the trend was down I played call and vice versa, so it was not a surprise that I lost quite a lot in jan itself.

My new strategy is to trade fewer times, trade lesser volume and to go with the trend and for medium term. This means that once I identified the buy signals based on stochastics, macd, rsi and moving averages, I will buy the warrant with the furthest expiry date and stick to it till the trend changes. I think this will make the volatility of warrants rather 'stable', as long as I cut loss if I made a wrong move and as long as I exit when trend changes had been confirmed. I hope this strategy can help me break out of my current 9 k losses.

I bought call warrants for hsi at 0.365, 5 lots and now it's 0.415, so that's already a good 10% returns. Let's not be greedy and put 20 lots (even 40 lots) like I do last time round. Let's just survive the market first. Once I make consistent profit (that means my strategy is working), I'll raise the volume to increase my profits.

So far, I'm very bullish about hsi. Especially after today where it broke 20,600 mark convincingly to close at 20,655. Everything points towards an uptrend now (though limited one). The next resistance to meet is 20,800. If it breaks that, then we'll have a new high. I shall check out hsi carefully once that 20,800 is near to see if there's signs of reversals. I calculated that since my warrant has an effective gearing ratio of 17.21 (which means that the warrant will change by 17.1% per % change of HSI), if HSI really reaches 20,800, the price of my warrant will be 0.465. This is close to 25% returns.

These calculations are all very interesting because this is the first time I'm calculating the level to reach so that I know what is the price to exit. Let's try it on my sti puts.

I bought at 0.06 with the effective gearing at 24.22 now. So for every percentage change in STI (drop), my warrants will increase its price by 24.22%.
Now the warrant is at 0.025. If STI falls to

3200: Warrant price becomes 0.030
3100: Warrant price becomes 0.050
3000: Warrant price becomes 0.065 (break even)
2900: Warrant price becomes 0.085

And I have up to 29th March for it to drop 200 points before I can break even. 200 points will be around 6% drop within a period of 2 months. Can it happen? Honestly, I don't think so. So what next? I think i'll have to average down my buy price by buying more at a lower price. A good target to average down to will be between 0.045 to 0.050, both points inclusive.

This means that I will have to buy another 10 lots at 0.020 or 0.015 (preferably 0.015), that will bring my average buy price at 0.045 to 0.04667. 10 lots at 0.020 is not a lot of money (it's only $200 excluding commissions) to average down.

What's the risk? STI could have gone up and up till end of march, never correcting to 3100 even after budget day and new year. I will have screwed up big time. Again, the chances of that is slim, I believe. So here's my plan: I will look really carefully next week before/during/after budget day for the CNY rally. Buy 10 lots of puts to average down, and hope for the best that STI will correct to 3100. I'll read the charts later this week to see if it's possible and decide from there.

Okay, enought brain work for now.

Longcheer went down a bit to 1.17. Please please don't let it reverse. 2 more days to release of results, let it rock. Oh, yellow pages posted results, not too bad, still have profits higher than last quarter. They expect next quarter results to be worse than last year, with 2007 earnings to be lower than 2006. This is due to capital investment for their internet yellow pages, which is doing rather well. 100% profit distributed as dividend, as usual. Yellow pages close higher at 1.29 today.

Monday, February 05, 2007

STI preparing for CNY rally?

Was surprised that STI held steady today, given a negative close from US last Friday. In fact, throughout the morning, it even increased up to 30 points upwards, but later drop to the present level of +5.64.

A stream of good news must be the reason why this bull refuses to come down. Firstly, there is the budget day 15th Feb (if I'm not wrong). The key thing to note here is the corporate tax cut by a minimum of 1%. I think that if corporate tax is cut by more than 1%, that's it...we'll have another round of bull charging through the new year. Another good news is the general good sentiment around chinese new year. Basically it's a self fulfilling prophesy. If everybody think there's a CNY rally, then starts buying in advance, there will really be a rally. Lastly, is the fact that US side seems pretty strong, with dow jones recently bouncing back from support level. One very interesting thing here is that my sti puts refuse to go down anymore lower than 0.030. You can guess what's people doing already...they are preparing for the correction some time after CNY. So we should get ready for it too.

I'm still holding my hsi call warrant since last fri. Went up a bit, dropped a bit. Generally I'm still bullish about hsi. I hope tmr it will cheong up so that the stubborn stochastics can really turn around with the red line crossing over the blue. I checked the MACD too and it seems like the classic 4 red lines and 1 green histogram chart from chartnexus program. The slope of the MACD is trending downwards, but it shouldn't be a problem as long as the reversal starts this few days. I expect mid week we should be able to see a convincing breakthrough of 20,600 level. That should be more reasons for the bulls to buy up HSI.

Osim looks pretty bad. Dropped to 0.975 today on high volumes (roughly 3 times of 50 days averaged vol). RSI trending downwards still, and still no signs of reversing its downtrend. Stochastics downtrend too. MACD also shows more downside as the red histogram didn't show signs of slowing down.

There's a weak support found at 0.96 so there might be an entry point to average down for osim. I would buy in small amounts near 0.96, if it breaks supports, then go lower to buy at a stronger support at 0.875. But I don't foresee osim to keep dropping till 0.875. There might be a technical rebound to levels between 1.08 to 1.24. So after averaging down, I would sell at the rebound then wait for another time to re-enter. Basically weekly charts shows more downside..that means more downside for weeks to come, with intermediate rebounds here and there.

Price action:
I would no longer follow japanland, SeeHS. Not interesting anymore.

MAE enggr rose to 0.23 today. Probably have to do with the impending crash of the metals market. Some hedge funds dumping their commodities, I heard. This affected some companies dealing with raw materials.

Longcheer today rose up 0.02 cents, wonderful! With this 2 consecutive days of rising, loncheer charts look very good. MACD starts to turn up from downtrend, stochastics already turned up. Ema 20 bounced off ema50 days, with stock price cutting both lines upwards. Results out on this thurs (don't know if it's after trading hours or before or during lunch time), so I hope to see more people accumulating longcheer. Results should be good given that dec quarter results in more people buying electronic gadgets.

Dow -9 points now, let's see if it closes that way.

Saturday, February 03, 2007

Food for thought

Just saw sgx announcement for Friday.

Saw 2 announcements that caught my eye. Firstly is for fabchem. They recently sold 29.9% of their shares to Dyno, another mining company in US (i think) for 0.70 per share, way at a premium to the current share price (around 0.55?). They appointed 2 directors to sit on the board of fabchem, which should give fabchem a proper direction to really tap the china and perhaps overseas market. Fabchem is one(if not the only) mining company and is the only such company that deals with explosives in SGX. Perhaps this news might give some boost to this stock.

I saw the charts just now, seems like downtrend is over and going to reverse soon. The only thing I don't like is the management. I know a lot of people see the director of this company so run far far away already. So? I don't know, but I won't buy for now.

Another announcement is regarding yellow pages. They just won a prestigious award for their 'new' business. If you didn't know, yellow pages has been trying to revamp their business model, so instead of the thick book that we're so familiar with, they also set up a search directory website called internet yellow pages (IYP or something). It is this website that won 2006 best website (for most hits) in the business catergory. Something like that.

Perhaps that finally explains why yellow pages had been running up so furiously recently? Anyway, I invested a very humble 1 lot in it at a super high of 1.67. I don't think I'm going to sell this off anytime soon since they give such wonderful dividends. Their dividend policy is 100% profit given as dividend. Not surprising since yellow pages not longer need such cash flow for expansion, though in my opinion, they should start giving less dividend and use their long years of expertise to expand their business overseas. That might really give yellow pages a run for their money. If any company only has business in Singapore, everyone in the company can eat grass already because Singapore is only so big.

How big? See the little dot underneath the question mark? This big.

Friday, February 02, 2007


Time to bash DBS vickers online again.

Bought a call warrant for hsi, 5 lots at 0.365 when HSI breaches 20,600. Went down a bit and rallied up till the warrant price became 0.42. You know, I wanted to sell because I wanted to go off already. So guess what, DBS HANGED UP ON ME AGAIN!! THE WHOLE BLOODY SERVER JUST KAPOOM! WTF are u guys doing at dbs??

Now it's 0.375, slightly in the red by less than $5, but I could have got a profit anything between $170 to $220!! Sick man...

Basically I'm bullish for HSI. The dreaded double top didn't happen and what we got is a uptrend in the making. At least that's what I think. Probably will try to aim for 20,800 (the last peak) or beyond before CNY. What I really want to see on Monday is that it rallied up again, causing the stochastics red line to cross the blue line. I think a nice 100 to 150 points up should do the trick. I guess it depends on how dow closes tonight. At the moment I can't check because Yahoo finance! is down. What the hell right.

STI went crazy again. I don't know, but I think this week it added around 120 points to the index? Uptrend still intact, maybe a little correction along the way before the CNY? I will probably add in to my put warrants sometime after budget day (I expect it to cheong) to average down my position. Now is bullish, we'll see what happens after budget day and after chinese new year. I think it'll be a massacre.

Price action:
Yesterday: 0.09
Today: 0.085

Double bottom reversal signal? Seems like ema20 is acting as a support for this stock. Should see it trying to test resistance. Short term doesn't look too good, long term so so only.

Yesterday: 0.435
Today: 0.435

Everything going on downtrend. Seems like it will test support at 0.430. Hope it'll rebound.

MAE enggr:
Yesterday: 0.23
Today: 0.22

Hmm...everyday going down, though on decreasing volume.

Yesterday: 1.12
Today: 1.16

Everything is falling into plans. It is indeed rebounding back within 61.8 to 38.2% fibonacci retracement zone. Should be seeing it going a little higher between 1.17 to 1.20. If it breaks 1.26, whooooo, it should rise even more. Hopefully results on 8th feb (thurs) should gather some momentum for this stock. I think it's quite hot in the channelsasiaforum.

Pac andes resuming uptrend, increased 0.015 to a close of 0.94 now.

Because of all these good movements, my portfolio loses shrink quite a bit to 9.4k. Not too bad, considering yesterday it was 11k!!

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Dow saved our ass

Dow saved our ass.

A decent minutes released by fed meeting last night causes dow to almost break its record, and causes quite a rally throughout the regional bourses. STI went ahead to get its new record high again by rising 42 points, HSI recovers from yesterday's drop to rise 323 points up.

Looking at hsi, we're rather at a crossroad. Stochastics still shows signs of downtrend, perhaps going to do a reversal now. RSI will begin to show uptrend if it hits a higher peak than the previous one. Currently, RSI is at the same level at the last peak. A curious situation arises... from the price, it seems like we're heading for a double top (a sure reversal sign that it's going to head south). It'll have to depend on tmr. If HSI breaks 20,600, it will not only cover the gap formed 5 days ago, it will also signal a new uptrend. Only then we will have our CNY rally for HSI.

For STI, we just broke a new record,so we're in no man's land now. Stochastics clearly formed a minimum and is heading upwards now, with RSI show clear uptrend. But if you noticed, that's a gap that is going to be covered sooner or later. Probably later.

Today's price action:
Yesterday: 0.085
Today: 0.090

Forms clear uptrend, maybe going to try to test resistance at 0.095 again. Still have faith in this stock.

Yesterday: 0.43
Today: 0.435

I think it has tested support at 0.43 and bounced right off. That's a good sign. I believe it's going to test resistance again at 0.485 again.

Yesterday: 1.11
Today: 1.12

Downtrend finally over? I see some reversal signs based on stochstics and MACD. RSI still hovering around 30%, so we need to see it go past 50% on uptrend before the worst is over. Basically based on fibonacci, can expect a technical rebound to the region between 1.17 (38.2% fibo) to 1.20 (61.8% fibo). Hopefully by then all the signs would point to an uptrend...portfolio bleeding heavily because of this. Oh, next Thurs should be the release of 2nd quarter result. As usual for tech companies, dec quarter should be their strongest quarter, add to the fact that longcheer has such a big surplus of extra cash (which they can use for M&A) or (I hope) paying a fat 'hong pao' dividend for investors. Cross my fingers :)

MAE enggr:
Yesterday and today: 0.23

Top tweezer pattern? It's a pullback with light vol, RSI still above 50%, MACD might be attempting crossover. I think nothing to worry.


To those concerned, here's iocbc recommendation for osim. After they released their profit guidance statement yesterday.
The link is here:

(join the two together without space, it's too long to put together in this blog)

Basically, the profit guidance statement says that they expect their 2006 profit after tax to be lower than 2005 by a good 20 to 28% (Alarm bells should be ringing, change in fundamentals!) Finalised audited results will be out on 22nd Feb.

Osim International Ltd: Earnings bombshell

Summary: Osim is guiding for 20-28% YoY decline for its FY06 net profit, pending the actual release on 22 February. As a recap, we were a lone voice for much of 2006, with regard to:

1) the stock market's excessively optimistic pricing in of minimal execution risks or smooth realisation of synergies for the integration of Brookstone Inc. as reflected in Osim's share prices,

2) Osim had only equity account Brookstone's 4Q05 results (the only profitable period of the year) in its FY05 performance, and as a result, YoY net profit growth in FY06 may be much slower than EBIT growth due to Brookstone's full year contribution (including the loss making first 3 quarters) in FY06, and

3) Osim is not yet an established brand in the USA, and the speed of consumers' receptiveness to relatively new health lifestyle products like massage chairs is still an unknown factor for Brookstone. We were, however, caught off guard like the rest of the market with the extent and duration of copycats' damage on Osim's organic health lifestyle product sales in the profitable North Asian markets, and its ineffective adex.

We have cut our net profit estimate by 43% to S$33.5m in FY06. Our previous estimate of S$1.42 was already the lowest in the market before yesterday's earnings bombshell, and we have slashed this further to S$0.785. Our rating on Osim has once again been cut from a HOLD to a SELL rating. (Chong Wee Lee)

Quite a number of brokerage houses also downgraded OSIM. Except Merrill Lynch, maybe they own some OSIM themselves, haha. But really pay no more attention to these reports, what you should pay attention is the reaction that these reports generate. Not all things are created equal, similarly, not all brokerage houses reports generate the same reaction. Pay attention more to foreign reports, they generate more reaction, most of the time

DJ MARKET TALK: Osim Down 18.3%, S$1 Floor; Brokers Downgrade

0128 GMT [Dow Jones] Osim (O23.SG) down 18.3% at S$1.07 on moderate volume after saying FY06 after-tax profit will be 20-28% lower vs FY05's S$46.7 million earnings.

News has prompted string of downgrades; Credit Suisse cuts to Neutral from Outperform, CIMB cuts to Underperform from Neutral, OCBC cuts to Sell from Hold.

"With momentum stalled, Osim's shares are likely to be a drag in the near term," says Credit Suisse.

Merrill Lynch however keeps stock at Buy with S$1.34 target; "given the highly leveraged overseas acquisition of Brookstone, which is management's first foray into U.S. retail, we do consider Osim suitable only for investors with a higher risk appetite." Support tipped at S$1 (level not reached since July 2005).

FY06 results due Feb. 22


Osim looks bad on both weekly and daily charts. Price fell below ema20, 50, 100 days and glups...even ema200 days, a very grim prospects indeed. The chart is based on yesterday's price action, and today there's a 18% drop in share price down to a intraday low (as of now) of 1.07, cutting down the 1.11 support line that I've drawn, which is also the ema200 moving support line. Next support line is at 0.875, and I'm quite convinced that it wouldn't touch that support.

Stochastics and MACD is all on downtrend, though it's very very near the bottom already. So, I would expect the selling to stop maybe after a few more days. Cut now if you can't stomach it, otherwise, I suspect you might have to hold this one for a longer term that you wanted.

What's more worrying isn't all this technicals, it's the shift in fundamentals. First of all, if you look at the profit guidance (more aptly called profit warning statement), they mentioned quite a no. of reasons why they didn't do well. I think the most impt reasons for all is that there really is a lot of competitors out there who compete on pricing. Add to the fact that US side is lukewarm to their marketing, you have quite no. of things to worry about.

So what will I do? I will definitely sell on strength, perhaps riding on the coming CNY rally and cut my losses there and then, live to fight another day. I'm quite certain there will be a rebound these few days after such a huge selldown, but it still doesn't change the fact that it's going on a downtrend. The big day is on 22nd Feb, where they already forecasted 20 to 28% less profit after tax, yoy. Much of the downside should already been factored in, so people should be looking for the higher or lower end of the forecast to base their investment decisions upon. Will you take the risk?