Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Superb rebound by STI

A mix of good news and bad news.

First the bad news. Longcheer reported 3Q results today. The heading reads "Longcheer holdings 9-month revenue rises 13% as handset sales volume soar 50%; 4Q FY2007 expected to better that of 3Q2007".

Just reading the headlines seems good. In the past, I'll just settle on the headlines since I don't know how to interpret the financial results. But now, looking closer I realise a few key findings:

1. Sales volume increased 46% in 3QFY2007
2. Total revenue till end of 9 months (who the hell calculates this?!) increased 13%
3. BUT net profit drop 15% from 9M06 to 9M07!
4. AND net profit drops 54% from 3Q06 to 3Q07!

If sales volume increased so much but net profit still drops, it just means their profit margin is decreased. Equivalent of selling more things but earning less. Net profit drops 54% is totally unacceptable, though 3Q is not their strong quarter.

Alright, that's it. DUMP LONGCHEER. Period. No need to look at how the management thinks if 3G will drive the growth or something. I don't want to hold it anymore. I don't even want their dividend if there's any, not interested in this cancerous tumor in my portfolio anymore. Tmr I shall see the remaining 5 lots I have.

Next one is better news. OCBC, which I've bought the warrants, reported better than expected results.

Net profit increased 60% yoy, and this excludes a one off gain of 90 million for the sale for an office property (which is the RIGHT way to count net profit). Revenue growth is 26%. Market expectation for OCBC was 34% and OCBC beats it hands down and it closed up 0.1 to $9.50.

My real call warrants have no volume (i purposely bought an ultra ulu warrants to shield myself cos I can't monitor daily) but my game warrants still not bad. I also bought synear call warrants, pending on their excellent results out this fri. Earn 4000 bucks in the game (bought 80 lots). HOW I WISH I HAD ACTUALLY BOUGHT IN REAL LIFE, just freaking 5 lots I happy liao. I just bought the synear call today and it increase 21.62% when I came back...sianz..

Third news -- yongnam secured 60 million civil and structural steel works contract in dubai, expected to complete by mid 2008. As for all construction projects, payment is in stages according to the project stages, so it'll contribute positively for the current and the next financial year. It went from 0.34 (lowest intraday) to close at 0.375, almost hitting the target price set by some research company weeks ago.

Just a side note: this blog I really spent a lot of time researching the facts and doing out the charts. At the end of the day, I felt better, regardless of whether I made money or not, because I felt that I learnt a lot. Guys, if you're in this investing business, I suggest you do the same too. It's the fastest way to build up your knowledge. To build up your portfolio, first build up your knowledge. At times, I can spend up to 2 hr doing everything for this tiny space in internet. It's worth all the time. Sometimes there's so much to say that I forget stuff...

Swiber and SAR went up too fast. Didn't even have time to load up already started cheonging. Esp Swiber. I feel that swiber is just waiting for general market sentiment to clear out before rallying all the way to hit $2. SAR also, looks like all my entry position all over-run by today's movement. Oh well, I'm not complaining.

Later tonight at 215 am, FOMC is going to have meeting. General consensus is keeping rates the same, but it's the vote and accompanying statement that might shed some light on future rate hikes/drops. As of now, dow is not going to have much movement.

Here's the list of results that will be out on Thurs and Fri


ECS holdings
Haw par corp
Jardine C&C
Petro Food
Pine agritech
Sunningdale tech
Straits trading


Allied tech
Parkway hldings

My portfolio goes back to less than 22k loss! Great trading tmr!