Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Pac andes results out

Pac andes results are finally out.

Total revenue increased 48.9%, net profit attributable to shareholders increased 49.7% (including exceptional gain due to dilution of its interest in China fishery through share placement). Net profit excluding this exceptional gain increased by 38.1% (instead of 49.7%).

Pretty impressive results. Musicwhiz did quite a brief analysis on the numbers and I posted the link below.

They are going to do a rights issue, subject to shareholders approval. Preshares dividend proposed is 1.08 cts per share and post right dividend proposed is 0.54 cts per share. If the rights issues goes on as planned, the number of shares will double, and the price will drop by half.

One thing to take note is their higher gearing last financial year. Total gearing is 116.9% from 82.3% a year back. That's a lot of borrowing!

(This is so ridiculous...i see pages and pages of balance sheet, income sheet and I just don't know what they are referring!! My goodness...I need to know how to do this kind of things!)

Back to technicals.

CSC made a gap on 22 May on announcement that they won a contract for Marina IR. Looks like it wasn't a breakaway gap as I had initially thought it was. CSC is covering the gap before it can move up. Intermediate support trendline, horizontal support line and gap support gives 0.335/0.340 as a pretty strong support. It shouldn't drop below that. Fingers crossed.

Swiber had been dropping like bird shit lately and it went below ema20 the last session. Swiber is now resting on support at 1.70 but it could give way anytime. The next important support level is around ema50 days and horizontal support level 1.62. Hopefully it'll hold, otherwise swiber will be in serious trouble. It would be especially important to see that the long term support trendline does not break i.e. if it goes below 1.57 or so, we could see swiber finding the next lower support at 1.38. Now that's totally unacceptable (not to mention unlikely, looking at stochastics and rsi as they are going to find support soon).

STI broke out of the rising bear wedge on the downside, as expected for this kind of formation. The good thing is that volume did not pick up when it broke down, at least not so bad. STI tried to go above the support turned resistance trendline but it can't. If it can't go up, it had to come down, and so it did today. EMA 20 days seems a good support for STI, having provided support on 21st March, 30th April and 25th May (basically every end of month, come to think of it). So I boldly claim that it would continue to act as support!

If it breaks below ema20 support at 3487 thereabouts, it might find another horizontal support at 3450 therebouts. The next one would be 3400. If 3400 breaks, all hell breaks loose because STI would go below ema 50 days...very bad. The last time STI went below ema50 days was this year, end of feb where it dropped 120 pts (3.7%). I stress this - STI didn't even come close to ema50 days for like 11 months or so (last year it went below ema 50 days around May and July period). Beyond that, I don't even have data.

My belief is that STI would touch 3450 (also happens to be fibo retracement 61.8%). We still have 60 more pts to drop, haha :)

Good luck and sit tight! Happy vesak day tmr!