Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Rising bear wedge in STI

Oh my, what a big mistake i've made in the past!

This pattern, which I formerly called the ascending triangle, is actually a bearish sign. In fact, it's called a rising wedge, a typical bearish reversal formation.I was discussing this with a forum friend when he told me this is called a rising wedge.

A few conditions need to be fulfilled before it can become bearish.

1. Decreasing volume as price go up and down inside the rising wedge. We do have decreasing volume if you draw a line marking all the days where we have highest volume.

2. It will become bearish if the price falls below the support line, especially so if we have expansion in the volume when it breaks support line.

Might be negated if price breaks out of top resistance line convincingly.

If STI didn't drop out of support line, we might see a showhand near 1st week of june, where the two trendlines converge. Here, we'll see how gets the upperhand and STI will move accordingly. Usually we won't have to wait till then to see, from my experience.

Take heed! (and prepare for great singapore sale!)