Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Chairman's message for FY 2007

Dear Shareholders,

Today is the first day of a brand new year 2008. I thought it's an excellent day for me to reflect what had happened in my life for the year 2007. Time flies so fast...

Let's recall what happened on 2 Jan 2007. I closed the year 2006 with a $3500 total returns. Considering that I started investing/trading in April, I'll say I had an excellent year in 2006. In 2006, I lost 18k and regained all of it back, mainly by trading with HSI warrants. In 2007, I closed the year with a loss of $485. This is the year that I suffered a huge loss of 30k (again, because of my warrant trading). It's very good that I managed to narrow down my losses to a mere $485, and I'm very glad that I learnt a lot of lessons during those troubled times.

(I did not include my hsbc portfolio in my returns as I think it will prevent me from doing stupid things. HSBC is part of my super long term portfolio...I thought it'll be good if I separate it from my 'play' account. For HSBC, I'm currently losing nearly SGD $400)

Overall, my returns since inception is still positive $3000.

I'll be revamping my portfolio spreadsheet so that I can track my ROI% better. Now it's a total mess, haha! Let's see some of the statistic of my trades for this year:

1. My warrants trades for 2007 gives a ROI of -5%, amounting to a total loss of $11,400

2. Out of 25 warrant trades, 16 trades gives positive returns. That means I bet correctly with a hit rate of 64%.

3. However, my total gains for my winning 16 trades is $3596 while my total losses for my 9 losing trades add up to -$15,027. What does this mean? It means that I didn't know how to cut loss properly. If I had controlled my losses and had the discipline to cut my losses before it snowballed, I would have been able to have a better ROI% for my warrant trades. Expensive lesson for me, I must say.

4. Worst trade in terms of ROI% is HSIsgaeECW070330R - a HSI call warrant. It clocked up -65.3% losses with a monetary value of -$3,330.

5. Worst trade in terms of monetary value goes to Longcheer holdings. Excluding dividends, a loss of $10,092. Total returns (including dividend) is -$9,534. Nearly -40% ROI...ouch :(

6. Best trade in terms of ROI% is YN W121214 - yongnam issued rights warrant which I haven't sold off yet. 203% ROI returns, with a monetary value of $183. For the best realised trade (meaning I have sold off and realised the profit), it goes to Straits Asia Resource. 115% ROI with monetary value of $6657.

7. Best realised trade in terms of monetary value still goes to Straits Asia. Best trade so far is Swiber....$22,400, with a ROI of 120%. Swiber single-handedly wiped off a big chunk of my 30k losses.

A very humbling 2007 for me....where I learnt the hard way what is the difference between skill and luck. A few hard knocks is actually a good thing as it inculcates a healthy perspective of the stock market, provided that you did not give up and treat it as all as a good experience.

Blogging is one of the most memorable thing I've done in 2007 too. Bully the bear started off as my online diary. At that time, I was started a blog to sort out my thoughts about trading. At that time, I just started on technical analysis and was exploring how to view all the charts to make my warrants trading better. I don't believe that if I keep using all the chart and write about it daily, I couldn't get better. I was proven right...I did get better over time simply by reading charts consistently and persistently. But my knowledge is fragmented and it was until my fren LS asked me to go to Decipher's course that I really began to integrate all the pieces into a more coherent framework. That was way back in January 14.

I started losing more after Decipher's course. This is because I thought I'm so good already, so I ya ya papaya and started trading based on rules that I barely know on the surface. Skill vs luck...my luck ran out and my skill wasn't there, so I started losing pretty badly. I think I reached my emotional trough somewhere around Feb 12. Some close frens thought I'm writing a suicide note or something. That woke me up. Money is just money. I'm poor but I'm wealthy.

After that I started revamping my portfolio...sold off longcheer plus a host of other stocks that are lousy but I'm still carrying. Without the baggage of my past mistakes, I started reading up intensively. I'd probably read close to 30 books in 2007 on all areas related to investing. Life was never the same after that.

Bully the bear blog grew in viewership and unique visitors. From a low viewership of around 100 plus in May, it grew to a peak of nearly 10,000 in December 2007. A lot more features are also included, including ads and an increasing number of interesting blog sites to visit. The chatbox is the most wonderful things I've done...I made quite a number of friends and met a few too :P It's the sharing and good comradeship in the chatbox that made Bully the bear such a addictive place for me to blog again and again daily. Thks everyone!

I better capture a screen shot of bully the bear website on 1st Jan 2008. I think it'll be very interesting to see how the site evolved over the years.

More things to come for bully the bear blog in 2008 :) That's for sure! haha :P I invite everyone to stay on and let's huat together in 2008! Have a wonderful and fulfilling new year!

La Papillion
Executive Chairman


Derek said...

Hi LP,

It's an interesting way to write up on 2007. Guess you must be attending or reading too many AGMs and Reports.

Like you, my portfolio spreadsheet is in a total mess and I have revamped it.

Wishing you a successful and prosperous new year in your stocks and blog.


la papillion said...

Hi Derek,

Yea, I read too many reports, haha!

You have a great new year too! Huat ah!