Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Pac andes on fire!

After dow's -70 closing last night, regional markets went down.

In my opinion, it wasn't down THAT much. HSI down 150 plus points, nikkei down 100 points, STI down 30 points. A few macro factors that may affect global markets. First to come to mind is the rising middle east tension. But come on, when is the last year you knew that middle east isn't in danger of war? Only this time is Iran. Some sailors from UK got captured, Iran refused to hand over them, blah blah. Due to this tension, oil price has been rising too. Last I heard, oil per barrel rose to US65. That's very close to last year's US70 per barrel. One interesting thing, today there's a rumor that Iran fired a missile at US or UK warships. That sent oil price to 68 US in minutes. Haha, did it really happen? Nobody knows.

Which sector to focus on? Probably oil stocks. The stock that come to my mind will be Wilmar, doing alternative fuel. Being aiming for this stock to drop, so that I can accumulate for long.

STI's uptrend still intact. Basically today's drop just removed all the gain we had yesterday. Now we're back to 3200. Target for downside is 3150. If it breaks, STI most likely will go below 3000. If 3150 holds, STI may well continue its climb where it left off at 3300. I'll probably get more good shares near 3150, but have to see if that level provides good support.

HSI already dropped to 19500 already, which I identified as the support level. From macro point of view, the situation isn't conducive for me to buy call for hsi at this point. I'll just forgo this. Charts don't look too nice too. At this kind of time, better be safe than sorry.

Oh, left a selling queue for my CDL warrants yesterday. Since I didn't recieve any sms that I sold my warrants, I assumed that I didn't. It's just a matter of luck that I actually read the trade notification that dbs always send to my email. Don't know why, felt like reading them today. THEN I SAW I HAD ACTUALLY SOLD IT! It'll be a disaster if I didn't notice that. I had half a mind to sell off my CDL warrants this morning on account of Dow's bad closing last night. Luckily I saw that I had already sold off yesterday, otherwise I'll be technically shorting the warrant. If I didn't cover and buy back on this same day, sgx will buy back for me. And who knows what is the price of the warrants + penalties for short selling?!

Granted, I didn't meet my target of 15% returns on this warrant, but it's a good thing I sold at high. Today the warrant dropped because the mother share dropped to 14.4 from 14.8. Broke resistance turned support at 14.6. On light volume though. Might see it return to 14.2 before can cheong, depending on macro factors.

Swiber dropped to the level that I bought, 1.24. It's a good thing I bought near support level, so at least it won't tank below the price I bought. Still bullish on this stock. I already paid fully for this already, so I'll hold this for some time.

Pac andes on fire now. Rallied up 0.080 to break all time high of 1.06. Intraday high is at 1.09, on high volumes. Since all resistance had been broken, we should continue to see spectacular moves on pac andes. According to charts, more more upside. I hope it'll come down a bit. Never too good to see stock rallied too fast. Let it come down, cool down the speculative fever (let it consolidate) so the stock can move further up for longer term. Excellent returns for this: 25% gain, excluding 3.7% dividend yield.

Learnt too many lessons this year. Actually investing in shares is the way to go, never warrants. I can get slower, steadier gains where I can sleep soundly every night with shares, not really with warrants. Too fast, too kelong already.

Dow -60 now.