Monday, March 12, 2007

Bearishness almost wiped out....almost

Sorry for not posting these few days, been a bit busy going here and there with the IT fair.

Haha, first rule of the market, don't argue with the market. It doesn't matter what you think or I think, the market will have its own opinion. Seems like these few days of rebound wiped the bearishness in me. As someone told me, this rebound is like a basketball rebounding after hitting the ground - it missed your hands and hits straight to your face. OUCH!

Here's a couple of graphs - they look astonishingly similar.

Firstly, it's my favourite index - HSI. HSI recovery is quite stable, a series of higher highs and higher low, a rather clasic peak and trough kind of movement. Judging from stochastics, RSI and MACD, it seems like there's a lot of room to move upwards. Stochastics had already turned northwards with red line leading blue line. RSI is steadily trending upwards, although it's still not above the bullish 50% mark. MACD looks great, going to trend upwards - though it might easily turn down again. Moving average line looks great - had finished it's minimum curve and going to turn upwards. Price is around 19,400 - my level to cover the gap as well as resistance level. If tmr the price shoots upwards still, my bearishness for HSI is truly over and i'll turn bullish.

Next, STI. STI looks funny. This is a V-rebound, theoretically high chance of failure. But from the looks of it, it seems like we might pull off it. Moving average had already turned northwards, with price cutting above both average - WOW! The rest of the indicators exhibit the same signals as HSI. BUY BUY BUY! 5th day of straight rebounds - powerful recovery huh? My target for STI is around 3250 - the level of the gap as well as resistance level. It's just another 50 to 60 more points to go :) I'll still be cautious on STI.

City development CDL. If you've seen charts of STI and HSI, you've seen it all. I bought the warrants for this way back and it seems like these few days, as CDL is recovering, the warrants prices became active again. Just last few weeks, I advised someone just starting on stocks to go easy on pennies. Yes, it's cheap, yes, the rewards to multifold your earnings are there and yes, big caps are very expensive. But really, look at this, big caps are the first to recover from crashes and the last to fall. You can't achieve this kind of stabilities with stocks worth a few cents. I like this property giant, as much as capitaland. I'm going to get my hands on BIG CAPS from now on. Not more kachang putik stocks. Target for CDL, 14.1. That should be able to turn my now red warrants back to green, or at least narrow my losses.

BTW, daylight savings for US is over, so US side will start trading at 930pm and close at 430 am, our time. Europe side a sea of red - god knows why. Dow trading at -20 now. All the good sentiment is pending on US close tonight. If Dow pulls another +200 or -200, we'll go along. STI really no head chicken, always following others.

My close for today - losses at 26.1 k. Last week's tally: earned 860, lost 360, overall still gain 500. Yes, I know, still long way from my 26.1 k losses, but every little thing helps :)