Thursday, November 15, 2007

STI beaten down again

STI was down 1.34% to close at 3477 pts, with a volume of 1.95 billion. That's rather low volume, compared to previous few days of 2.2-2.5 billion.

I heard a friend saying that DHL is going into the basic mail and postal services that is currently monopolised by Singpost. The postal service is worth about S$1 billion in revenue in 2004, with the total mail volume growing since the 1990s with an average growth rate of about 2% per year. IDA wishes to liberalise the postal service though, citing greater competition will benefit users through more service innovation and price competition. I'm rather sceptical - all the controlled competition ends up with the govt saying that competition is (in the end) not worth it for consumers as it wastes resources. E.g. U channel vs Channel 8, NEL vs SMRT.

I wonder if this will turn out to be the same too. This is after all, not confirmed yet. But any competitors would erode the monopoly and hence revenue earned by singpost. This is something fundamentally important to the stock, and so have to be monitored closely. I wonder if the recent selloff have anything to do with this news - though it's rather old news.

Recently I have a more pressing stock to buy, so will put a hold on my buy on singpost at 1.10. It's a HK stock, HSBC which is currently trading at 138.8 per share in HKD. I would like to buy 1 lot (400 shares) at a price close to 137 as possible. Let's see if tmr would provide me with the opportunity to collect near to 137.

Hmm, I found out that using dbsvickers is good to monitor HK stocks, as they give up to date stock price for the stocks (just have to refresh) unlike POEMS which gives delay of at least 15 mins. They even have the intraday, historical charts. Oh, it reminds me of the good old day trading warrants :)

For HSBC, looks like a rebound is due, with support at 137.5 and near term resistance at 142. There is a huge gap around 142 to 145, so that would serve as a possible gap resistance. It might attempt to cover gap around that region, so it depends on the outcome. Seriously, buying at 137 or 139 for 1 lot (400 shares) isn't going to make much difference, esp when I'm holding forever? Here's the breakdown:

At 137, it's HKD 54,969 = SGD 10,250
At 138, it's HKD 55,371 = SGD 10,325
At 139, it's HKD 55,772 = SGD 10,399
At 140, it's HKD 56,173 = SGD 10,474

This might be the best decision I've been to buy the beaten down bank stocks. Though it's only 1 lot, let's start there :) Let's see if tmr I can get it near 137 :)

Dow now at -57.15.