Wednesday, May 18, 2011


For self reference:

I see a few things - a downtrend restricting the upward movement stretching back in Nov 2010, heads and shoulders (though with no volume confirmation), strong support at 3120 level and the significant recent low near 3078 (which is also near the ema 200d).

Sell in May and go away?


Musicwhiz said...

I remember May of 2009. There were 5 days during that month where the greatest surge I had ever witnessed occurred for share prices cum valuations.

Kyith said...

it cuts both ways. i am for being vested but keep a keen eye out for time to lighten.

for all you know we just gyrate here up and down

la papillion said...

Hi mw,

I don't know about May 2009, but this May looks different. I'm looking at STI as a general barometer of market psychology and when looking to things to sell/buy, I always look at the individual charts themselves.

Hi drizzt,

Ya, it might not sink down but may dilly dally sideways for months to come.

Everyday Zen Trader said...

Hi LP,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the STI. So did you sell and go away in May?

The crash in commodities prices earlier this month is worrying. One school of thought is that the financial market is prop up by government subsidies. Once the funding stop, the prices will come crashing down. The crash in commodities prices may be a warning. Or is it just a bull shakeout?

QE2 is ending in June. However the American housing market still in doldrums, and the European debts woes, I think they will continue pumping money into the system. Q3 2011, we might expect the markets to test support due to all these uncertainties, though my guess is that the real test of the market will come after 2012. After the American presidential election and the change of guard in China. I doubt politicians have the stomach for anything else now.

Therefore the bull run for commodities, Oil in particular might not be over. Recently there's a scramble for Internet companies. Just like before, bubbles will take time to pop, and pop at the most surprising time.

Take care!

~ Toh Wee

My last blog post
The Internet Gold Rush – The Chinese Version

la papillion said...

Hi Toh Wee,

I've reduced/reducing my positions. It's not an all out rush for the exit, but I'm certainly exiting in an orderly fashion now.

Signs of it being toppish are certainly beginning to show. I've no idea whether it's to shake the bulls or not...but I guess what we can do is to keep our eyes open and have a plan on what to do when the inevitable happens.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this matter too :)

Kyith said...

i wonder why there is a draw towards internet companies ipo and people thinking its a bubble.

we should all gain knowledge on these companies before making judgements.

company needs to be listed and during good times. it doesnt mean bubble.

in fact internet companies are going to be the next leaders because they are great enablers.

but i think that being out of the market is a bigger risk. time and again we get head fakes at EMAs and then we missed out on the top 10 days and we are well and truly farked.