Sunday, July 01, 2007

Losses reduced to 7.9 k now!!

Back from Batam!

Pleasantly and very very happy to see that Swiber had broken out of resistance level and went to close at all time high last Fri with a closing price of 2.670 (intra day high of 2.680), up 0.270. Ascending triangle breakout target of 2.615 had been broken in just one day, with relatively higher volume than average volume 50 days. Haha, just last week I was posting about having faith in good companies that does share placement. The price will drop temporarily but it will return to break its previous high after all the selling has been done. If I didn't remember wrongly, the share placement price for swiber is at 2.17. Didn't even come close to that and it started cheonging already. This counter singly handedly wipe off most of my losses, one of the best stock I've invested this year.

Action: Hold on and ride the swiber wave!

Straits asia didn't go lower than my support level of 1.41, though it dropped through my rather weak support at 1.48.

Charts for straits asia looks damn good! MACD histogram shows Decipher's 4 red 1 green buy signal, suggesting that Straits asia might have reached the bottom already. Other indicators also suggest a reversal in sight. Straits asia tested ema20 days and rebounded with above average volume. I think the downtrend (FINALLY!) had stopped. All we need is for it to have a high low and a new uptrend will be confirmed. Best time to entry straits asia is now...but with my portfolio mainly filled with stocks, I think i'll just leave it there untouched.

Action: Good entry point now (pending other macro factors remain unchanged), but will forego it. Too many money in equities already and with pac andes rights issue coming next, I need to liquidity to convert my rights shares into mother shares. Looking for more upside this coming week.

Pac andes dropped more last fri. I hope it'll drop more to 0.87, probably I'll add more this time round. I browsed through the thick 80 page offer information statement (OIS) and found a wealth of information that I'm beginning to understand. Good company with strong growth. The selling might be done to convertible bond holders selling out...not sure on that.

So far, ema 50 days support seems to hold. If it broke, might find some relief around 0.87 (which is my entry point). I think the selling should stop this week already. A bit overdone, if you ask me. Stochastics seem poised for a reversal, with MACD looking to bottom out. Let's see what's the price action like next week. I'll talk more about the rights issue application on my next posting.

Action: Subscribe to the rights issue by this week. If the price drops around 0.87 range, consider entering to round up to 10 lots or 15 lots.

CH offshore seems to be building base around 0.73 to 0.75 region, instead of going down. The edge magazine mentioned about CHoffshore finally being recognised, haha! Might alert some investors into this stock this coming week. From stochastic, seems like a crossover is about to happen, suggest more upside to come. Hard to read the charts for this, because it's not very clear.

Action: Hold, nothing had changed, so I shall do nothing too. Support level at 0.72, fibo retracement zone also around that region (0.72-0.74). Should be safe unless support breaks, which I highly doubt so.

A very happy news to share: My portfolio losses went down from 30k to 7.9k now!! This is due a number of factors - firstly swiber cheong until dunno what already, so that helped a lot and contributed significantly to my portfolio gains. The second reason is that construction stocks (esp csc and yongnam) revived and rallied strongly this week, with almost all the construction stocks I had breaking their 52 weeks high. Again, I stress that the portfolio loss/gains are transient as the prices flunctuate daily.

The important thing here is know why I lost 30k and why I can make back 22.1k now. The answers will help me replicate this gains repeatedly and that's what counts. I'll write a long long post when I finally go back to square one (lost 30k, gain 30k back). It'll be a cause for celebration :)

Tmr I think I'll be quite time at all to monitor. STI should be safe now..might react negatively in the morning from Dow's -13 point close last fri night.