Lazy sunday

This is one of those lazy Sunday that I didn't have to work and have the time to read newspaper at a very leisurely pace. This is so unlike the past few weeks where I've to scan the headlines and basically leave it at that. So, naturally, my eyes focused on the investing segment of the Sunday Times. This person was giving 5 tips on how to invest despite the bear.

My first impression is that how come nobody is giving tips on how to invest despite the bull. Perhaps it's our natural inclination to see prices rise up. Even the major stock exchanges in Germany and US are setting up measures to prevent short trading in case the market plunges too fast and too soon, but they did not do anything to prevent long buying in case the market rushes up too fast and too soon. Quite bias, don't you think?

Anyway, here are the 5 tips. Having nothing better to do, I thought it'll be a good idea to reflect on how these tips are useful to me or not.

1. It is better to remain focused and stay invested during volatile times.

It further elaborates by saying that over the long term, you can ride out the volatility. I hate it when people say that. It oversimplifies a lot of things. So do we stay invested in one company over the long term or do we put all our investing money in the market (regardless of the companies actually invested) over the long term? From the people I talked to, they seem to think that the former is the way. They then quote Warren Buffett doing that too (if you think so too, read more about him).

In my opinion, I think that staying vested in the market for the long term is the right thing. But you need no stay invested over the long term on the same companies. Just do the necessary adjustments from time to time.

2. The three Rs: Revisit goals, review portfolio and rebalance your investments.

Ok, this I agree. I made a mistake in the past of not reviewing my investments. A good profit thus turned to a very bad loss. I guess everyone does that kind of mistakes. It's a very very good idea to rebalance your investments. It's like a garden full of plants that you want and a lot of weeds. Just take out those weeds so that you can clear more space to grow the plants you wanted.

3. Spread out your risks, diversify

The article says to diversify across different asset class. Ok, it's great advice. But to a common retail investor, it's hard to do spread out your assets into more than 2 classes, unless you have a lot of bullets to fire everywhere. To me, if you have less than half a million to invest, you might want to concentrate on just one or two asset class. Perhaps stocks and bonds? If you have more than half a million, then capital preservation might play a more important role, hence the need for a more robust portfolio to weather the shit in life. Stocks, bonds, properties, commodities might even out just nice.

Please don't quote me Warren Buffett's style of focusing. You're not him and he's not you. Besides, he has many many more companies than you will ever have.

4. Have a balanced portfolio

Erm, isn't this tip the same essentially as tip no. 3? I guess the author elaborated more on using the funds approach. Coming from the head of UOB deposits, investment and insurance branch, I guess it's normal to talk about this.

5. Market corrections can mean opportunities; use dollar cost averaging to smoothen price swings

I'm not such a big fan of blindly doing DCA. I believe that the market can be timed, not precisely, but approximately. We do not have to buy every month because we cannot time the market. Just do DCA with some chartings, and I think you can do a lot better and save yourself on the transaction costs.


As with all articles, they never never talk about selling. It's all about entering the markets and giving the impression that by holding long enough, you'll have a good return in the end. To me, selling is the other half of buying, and there really is too much literature on how to buy and when to buy. How about doing a DCA on selling? As market goes up, you sell a little more and a little more so as to average up your selling price?

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The flight of Icarus

I would like to share a Greek mythology with you. This is not about Odysseus nor Sisyphus - it's about the story of Daedalus and more importantly, his son Icarus. You might not have heard of Daedalus but surely, you must have heard of the Minotaur. The Minotaur is the half man half bull creature that is found in the Labyrinth of Crete. There is a great story of how Theseus, the 'real' son of Poseidon (not the Hollywood fake version of Percy Jackson), survived the labyrinth and defeated the Minotaur. Daedalus, the craftsman who built the labyrinth, had to escape with his son Icarus. He thus built a pair of wings, one for each of them and gave his son strict instructions not to fly too high up near the Sun for the wax on the wings will melt and he will surely perish.

Icarus's over-confidence got the better of him

Icarus followed his father closely in the beginning, never straying too far from him. However, the adrenaline that surely must have pumped in his veins made him high and most importantly, made him forget about the dangers that was warned by Daedalus before taking on this journey. The initial cautiousness gave way to recklessness as Icarus flew higher and higher up the sky. So confident of his own ability to control his flight that Icarus could no longer hear Daedalus's warning.


Alas, it was too late. As Icarus flew higher up towards the Sun, the wax that attached the wings to his body melted and soon, he was flailing his bare hands in vain as he dropped like a stone into the sea.


Moral of the story:

If it's quite a bullish time, always be careful when the price of your stocks go higher and higher. Icarus had forgotten that the half-bull had been killed by Theseus and ignores his father's warning not to aim so high up the sky... to his own peril.

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Reality check 2

This is more of a personal reminder not to over invest in the market. There's a lot of uses for my cash these days and the problem becomes a little bit more thorny when the market is showing more value these days, after crashing and crashing when the Olympian Gods turned their backs on the troubled Greece. Better do a little back-of-the-envelope calculation to ensure that I have sufficient cash for immediate use.

Here's a quick breakdown:


1. Housing - 110k

This gets a little bit more troublesome since I entertained the idea of getting a 5 room flat. This is different when I started writing about some details with regards to the amount of cash I needed. Just based on 4 room with a price tag of 400k, I need around 60k cash. If I get a 5 rm, which cost around 500k, I think I need to raise that amount to 110k cash.


2. Wedding - 32k

A few things are set in stone. I already got the suffer rings and the package, and paid for a deposit for the hotel. What's left are some miscellaneous and the rest of the banquet. For worst case, I do not assume that I can get back anything after the banquet. I know I know, I'm sick.

Suffer rings + Package + deposit = 9k
Miscellaneous = 5k
Hotel banquet = 18k

Maybe I should dangle a carrot in front of me while carrying my burden...

Drum roll please....... Ladies and gentlemen, I need 140k by end of the year. Hmm, based on what I have now and my savings target by end of the year, most likely I will be able to hit 85% of the target without any help from the market. THAT is quite reassuring. This means that I can tap maybe 10k of my reserves to average down some holdings, but when the market rebounds, I'll have to take an equivalent amount or more of my capital out. In other words, USE SPARINGLY.


Okay, by next yr, I would need to renovate and furniturised my new home. Based on the estimate I did in the previous post, I would need 50k. But that's another 365 days more to go - I'll just walk ahead by putting one foot ahead of the next. The situation might change drastically by the end of the year, so no point planning so far ahead.

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Of rainy days

I was walking my way to work and when it was about to rain. Not just the typical afternoon showers but it was this gigantic, monstrous, end-of-the-world kind of rain. The clouds are so dense with water vapor that it seems as if the mothership from Independence Day are coming to consume all lifeforms on Earth.

It seems that I'm going towards Mount Doom

I was just enjoying the sights, sounds and smell of the impending rain. I was so suitably impressed that I took a picture of it to keep, and that's the picture you see above. Believe me, it's much worse when you're actually there because it seems that the darkness is about to touch and consume you.

However, since I vowed to myself never to be delayed by rain or shine, I just marched on.

Isn't the stock market the same? There's this big impending cloud of doom creating an overcast in the global market, seemingly about to consume it all. I've read an article yesterday saying there we should liquidate all the stocks that we have and buy gold. I do not dispute that, but I think we ought to be careful not to over-react to both market extremes. In good times, be a little bearish and hold on to your purchases. In bad time, be a little bullish and buy a little at suitable levels. Most importantly, do not let the market determine your mood.

It was 2 hours later after I left that area. It didn't rain at all.

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An hour to eternity or an eternity in an hour?

I saw this panel from my favourite one-panel comic site : Wulffmorgenthaler. As always, it always inspired me to write certain things after reading it. One panel comic also makes me think a lot, despite its apparent simplicity. So this is one of the latest one from those comic genius:

We have a very short time to spend with people before we each go our own separate ways

I like this one because it reminds me that we have a short moment to spend time with each other before our paths diverge and we all go our own separate ways.

I think while it's important to delay our wants and settle our present needs first, so that we can save up for the future, we cannot forget to enjoy ourselves. While it is wise to save up for the future, it requires wisdom to decide when to live for the moment. In that sense, I need to work on the wisdom part. I mean that is the problem with savers - they tend to save too much, perhaps even accumulating money for security sake. While spenders had their own sort of problems, I guess spenders wouldn't regret their experiences at all.

I had a wonderful day with brothers and sisters just dining and chatting. I'm going to buy a kindle dx to reward myself for the insane months of hardwork and oversaving (Can you imagine that? Oversaving! Is there even such a term?). I'm going to have a planned relaxing week ahead.

I live for the moment now, at least for this week :)

I leave you with this beautiful poem by William Blake, Auguries of Innocence:

To see a World in a Grain of Sand
And a Heaven in a Wild Flower,
Hold Infinity in the palm of your hand
And Eternity in an hour.

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Fair value of noble after XA

When I saw noble, I suddenly remembered that they are going to go XA today. Haha, it just slipped my mind, if not I'll have calculated the fair value of noble before today.

BTW, I chose option 3. Seriously, I didn't really choose it. I can't sell it at the price I wanted, so no choice but to hold it then :)

They are going to give a dividend of 0.036 USD per share, payable on 6th July. I didn't read closely and I suppose that the dividend is only for shares held before XA and doesn't include the new rights shares.

Here's the information required:

Dividend: 0.036 USD per share
Forex: 1.38 (assumed)
Bonus exercise: 6 for 11
Last closing on 14th May: 2.98

The fair value, defined as the price of noble after XA NOW such that there is no change in one's profit/losses BEFORE XA but after distribution of dividend, can be calculated as such:

[2.98 - (1.38 x 0.036)] x (11/17) = 1.896 = 1.90

Currently, noble is having a buy/sell bid of 1.89/1.90 and it opens at 1.90. How would it close?

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What are your reasons for having kids?

** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."


I was talking to a few people about the cost of rearing a kid in Singapore. It dawned on me that there are so much responsibilities and duties, not to mention the financial cost, associated with bringing up a kid. That makes it strange because when I (casually) ask people why they want a kid, the most common answer is that it's the most natural thing to do. It's almost like no second thought is needed. Just snap your fingers, let's have a kid.


Not that it's not a valid reason, of course. It's just that if my kid is suffering in the world and he asks me why did I bring him here to suffer, I better have a proper explanation for it. I can't just say that it's the natural thing to do after getting married. Having said that, I think some people better not have kids, despite whatever the government is trying to promote here. Have a kid so as to have some months of paid leave? Have a kid to reduce your taxes? C'mon, it's not as simple as just a money problem, even though it can form a big part of the stress faced by parents.

It's not always so romantically happy in having a kid

I think the biggest problem is time and effort. Some people just do not want to spend the necessary time and effort to raise a kid. They just throw money at them, perhaps to replace their guilt or simply their lack of interest in having a kid in the first place. I might even think they regret the whole thing. Hey, if you are going to screw up your own life, don't screw up an innocent life.


Is my generation the selfish lot?  The generation who only cares about self-interest and throw away all the goodness of family life? I do not think so. I do not speak for others, but at least for me, I think I couldn't be more self-less. If I cannot make sure I can do my best to bring up a kid that will make the world a better place than without, I would rather not have a kid. If you went through the system while growing up and suffers through it, would you want your kids to go through the same routine? I have my reservations on that.


Having said so much, do I like kids? Yes, I do. Would I want children? Yes, I do. But it is not a light decision to make, nor will I make it a hasty one. No amount of tax rebates nor months of paid leave can push me to have a kid. Do you really want parents who would have more kids to have such incentives? If you can make the environment and social institutions more friendly towards parents, then perhaps it can push me and others to have more kids. Until then, I'm sorry, I really do not think all the campaign will work well. The pull factors are just simply not attractive enough.

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As an afterthought, what about push factors? Pay triple the tax if there's no kid in the family? No buying of subsidized housing? When all the nice candies do not work, maybe the pushing and shoving just might. I hope I do not live long enough to see such acts here.

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Musing over my options for noble

For some strange unfathomable reasons, noble had decided to issue a bonus exercise of 6 bonus shares for every 11 shares held before ex date. Why 11 - a prime number? Wouldn't it round off nicer if the exercise is 6 for 10, or even 6 for 12? In order to round up nicely, investors must hold shares in multiples of the lowest common multiple of 11 and 1000 (who say maths is useless?). However, 11 is a prime number, so you must have 11 lots at the minimum in order not to end up with odd lots. If not, I think the trailing decimal places in the calculation of your bonus shares will be rounded down.


Each share is trading currently at around $3, so 11 lots will cost $33,000. Not a small sum of money at all for retail investors.


I am holding 2 lots of noble, so I'm trying to find ways to circumvent the problem of odd lots. I knew about the unit share market from poems trading platform. It's used to trade shares lesser than the board lot size of (usually) 1000 shares. I think somehow, I've got to use this feature in order not to end up with odd lots.


Here's a few ways that I can think of:


1. Buy 2 more shares from the unit share market, to arrive at a total of 2002 shares of noble before ex date. Since 2002 is a multiple of 11, I'll end up with 1092 bonus shares, giving me a total share after ex date of 3094 shares. Commission structure of unit share market is 0.28%, with a minimum of $10 charge.


Great...it's still odd...not a fantastic idea. I'll have to sell 94 shares or buy another 906 shares from the unit market to end up with nice board lot size.


2. Buy 9 more lots of noble to arrive at a total of 11 lots of noble before ex date. This will entitle me to 6 bonus lots, with a total of 17 lots of noble after ex date.


If not for the exorbitant extra 27k needed, this will be a good solution. I don't think I want to put so much into noble just so that I can skip the odd lots...bad idea.


3. Do nothing before ex date and get a bonus share of 1090 (rounded down), arriving at a total share of 3090 after ex date. Then go to the unit share market to sell off 90 shares of noble or top up with 910 shares to get 3 lots or 4 lots respectively.


The added advantage of topping up with 910 shares is that I would expect a selloff immediately after ex date as investors go to cash out their odd lots, so I might be able to buy at a much cheaper price to average down my overall purchase.


The estimated price after XA is $1.95. Assuming I want to buy 910 shares off the unit share market at 2.20 (I assume an even higher buy price at unit share market), it'll cost be $2002. Add in minimum commission of $10, it'll be roughly $2020.  The dividend of roughly $100 can be used to offset the cost of purchasing the odd shares too.


Might not be such a bad idea.


4. Sell off noble before ex date and buy it back a few days after ex date.


I like this idea a lot, so I've been queuing to sell for the last couple of days. If there really is a sell off after ex date, I'll be able to skip all the nonsense odd lots and even get a cheaper price for the shares. However, doing so, one will not be able to get the dividends. This should not be a big deal, considering how little the dividend is. I wouldn't be worried about this.


Do note that due to the low liquidity at the unit share market, the buy/sell spread can be quite big. You also have pay the minimum of 0.28% of transactions or $10, even if you buy/sell 1 share. Proportionally, the cost is higher. As such, I think no.1 is a very bad idea. I'm just wasting money doing it that way. No. 2 is out for me as I do not wish to be overexposed to noble, given my capital size.


So, it boils down to no.3 or no.4. Let's see which one the market throws at me.

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For whom is the whole life insurance meant for?

Just for whom is the whole life insurance meant for?


I've heard a number of people saying that they don't want to buy whole life because when they get older, their dependents would have grown up and thus there's no need to cover them anymore. The alternative is thus the term life plan because it's cheaper. This seems to suggest that the whole life plan is just for the coverage of their dependents in case the sole breadwinner (the person insured whose life is insured by the whole life policy) passed away.


My post here is to question that very assumption - that the whole life plan policy is to cover dependents in case you pass away prematurely, thus leaving them with a huge lump sum.


I do not use the whole life for such purpose. There are cheaper alternatives for such lump sum gift for those loved ones you leave behind to take care of financial matters. I propose that a whole life plan can be used to protect your own savings that had been built up thus far, from events that can erode it considerably. Events such as cancer, stroke, heart attacks and any other events that are debilitating yet not fatal immediately. In this sense, whole life policy will act like compulsory savings to force you to save up for such events.


Term plan can work the same, yes. But the catch is that term plan coverage only last around 60 yrs whereas whole life plan cover for an extended period till 100 yrs old.

So what happens between the years when your term plan coverage ceases? I think whole life can be used precisely for that purpose - to cover for the period when your term plan no longer covers you, until the day you pass on.


If something strikes you after 60 yrs old, and you do not have whole life coverage, someone will have to foot the bill. There are hospital and surgical fees to take care of, and there are other fees that had to be incurred that do not require hospital stay. Only the former are covered by H&S plans, so what about the latter? Things like non-standard drugs, stay home nurses and maid, overseas treatment....who is going to pay for them? The H&S plans do not cover things like that and I do not want to burden my spouse, relatives or dependents, so I have to depend on myself. But I do not trust myself that I can save up enough for such purposes, hence a whole life plan is critical for me to hedge against my own ability to prepare for such events.


I think of my own situation. I am sandwiched between two parties - the needs of my parents and the needs for myself. I've to buy insurance for my parents because they only have enough savings to take care of themselves if nothing extraordinary happens. If something is to happen, it will firstly wipe out all their retirement savings and secondly tap into my savings too.


They told me if something bad is to happen to them, I don't have to treat them because there's no point. I do not think I can do that. Can anybody do that? Not me. I only have limited amount of savings to handle my own affairs. If I have to help my parents, who would foot the bill for me if something is to happen to me? My dependents? Then this whole cycle will repeat again!!


I'm not a saviour nor a hero to rescue my future generations from this vicious cycle. I'm just a normal person struggling to make good on my dual duty as both a kid to my parent and a parent to my kids. It is only responsible for my kids to be born into this world without the excess baggage of the previous generation. I might not be able to do it, but hey, guess what, I'm doing my best.


It's also a bit too much to ask for a product to cover all of this stuff that I've talked about. It's not possible. I'll try to cover as many loopholes as I can foresee and do my best to steer my ship as danger free as I possibly can.

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Do note that I'm not a financial advisor. Of course I'm not. I'm just trying to make sense of all the debate here and there and reason out for myself on the actual purpose of certain insurance policies. I believe that no financial advisor can do that for you - you've got to think and reason it out for yourself. I do not presume to think for everyone, because my situation is uniquely mine. So do not follow me, because I'm not your leader. Do not walk ahead of me, because I might not be able to follow you. Do however, walk beside me as a friend, so that we can all share and discuss all our interesting life experiences together.

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The official reason why MBS screwed up

** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."


I saw from my favourite one panel comic site, Wulffmorgenthaler, dated May 7th, regarding this picture shown below. I liberally changed the script and inserted my own as a dig at the latest Marina Bay Sands (MBS) saga over the kind of world crass standard they exhibit recently.

I mean, they are hosting lawyers. MBS sure knows how to pick their fight. They could have screwed up on a conference by the society of garang guni, or the hen pecked husbands club, but they had to pick their fight on lawyers. Bummer...

I thus present to you, my interpretation of the issue. No need to thank me, MBS, for giving you an idea on the official explanation for the screw ups. There's only one thing worse than lawyers...

The official reason why some of the rooms in MBS are not air-conditioned

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For the benefit of those who did not read up on the news, here's the article, reproduced from channel news asia site:

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How my world came tumbling down

After a few people smsed me and emailed me, I kind of realised that this post is a bit too much. Hence the disclaimer before the actual post itself. Do know that while reading this letter, it's supposed to bring out a certain point that is found only towards the end of the letter. SO, while reading it, the scenario painted out are NOT TRUE. While writing this disclaimer will spoil the "ah-ha" effect, I think making people unnecessarily worried about me isn't exactly the intended point either.

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Dear readers,


I had a very very bad week.


I fell down the stairs when I was going for my dinner last week. Dropped down a flight of stairs, sprained my left hand and broke my leg, leaving my leg in cast now. That was after I received a letter from the hospital after a full body check up the previous month. What can I say? The results are...not optimistic at all. It says that I've a growth in my right forearm, so more needs to be done before it can be ascertained whether it's malignant or not. As I was musing over the possibility of a cancerous growth, I must have lost my concentration and fell over the flight of stairs.


How can a spate of bad news hit me so relentlessly and furiously? Didn't my mum's high blood pressure got worse this month and had to be sent to the hospital? My pet cat's recent death already had me sleeping with my pillow wet and my eyes puffed up with all the crying. I don't think I've anything left to cry anymore. My gf had threatened to leave me after a very bad spate of arguments, so I can't seek consolation with her. Can I talk to my friends? They had 'left' me because while I was busy with my work, I didn't have time for anyone except to make more money. While they are physically there, our frequencies no longer resonate. It's just an empty feeling talking to them, because it reminds me of how things were in the past and how different they are now.


But all these did not happen at all. I did not fall off the stairs. I did not go for a medical checkup and neither did I receive any letter sentencing me to death. My leg is perfectly fine and my hands are still as dexterous as ever. My mum's blood pressure did not get worse and she did not go to the hospital at all. My cat is still very much alive and mewing for attention occasionally. My pillow and bed sheet are crisp and fresh as it had been changed just last week. I did had arguments and disagreements with my gf but she did not threaten to leave me. We are still very much in love. My friends are still there with me and though our frequencies no longer resonate perfectly, they are still in phase with each other. Conversations with them are no longer are as satisfying as I used to remember them, but we still know each other like a connoisseur to his favourite vintage wine.


So why did I tell you this? I just lost a few k in the stock market as the price spirals down and I want to let you see things in the proper perspective. Things are not as bad once you realised that you have a wonderfully blessed life right now, at this very moment. What is a few k of losses? Don't wait for the moment when you lose the things you have now to realise how fortunate you are.


Life is still very wonderful :)



Yours truly,

La Papillion

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Of fishes and men

You must have heard of this story, it goes like this:

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An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellow fin tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.


The Mexican replied, "only a little while."


The American then asked why didn't he stay out longer and catch more fish?


The Mexican said he had enough to support his family's immediate needs.


The American then asked, "but what do you do with the rest of your time?"


The Mexican fisherman said, "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos, I have a full and busy life."


The American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat with the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution. You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then LA and eventually NYC where you will run your expanding enterprise."

The Mexican fisherman asked, "But, how long will this all take?"


To which the American replied, "15-20 years."


"But what then?"


The American laughed and said that's the best part. "When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions."


"Millions.. Then what?"


The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos."


The moral of the story… Know where you’re going in life — you may already be there.
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I disagree with the moral of the story. In my own twisted interpretation, the moral of the story, to me, is:

1. If the Mexican is already a millionaire and is thus living the life doing what he wants (i.e. fishing leisurely). then the moral must surely be that you must work hard to have a certain amount before you can do what you want in life. In other words, work hard now, so that you can enjoy your retirement doing what you like without worry for money.


2. If the Mexican is not a millionaire, then there is some difference between a millionaire-turned-fisherman and a fisherman, even though there are doing the same things now (which is fishing leisurely). I do not know if the Mexican's wife and family will argue with him everyday to bring in more money to feed the family or not. It's not stated in the story, but I would imagine so. There are responsibilities to fulfill, and so I would not seek to do what I really wanted before settling those responsibilities.


3. I remember what snr bro said the other day. Young men must spend more time and energy to earn money. Older men must spend their money to earn more money. Perhaps the Mexican is doing that, or had some other income stream so he do not have to be there physically to earn the money.


The fisherman's tale is not as romantic as first thought. Life is inherently harsher than a fairy tale.

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STI spooked by the PIGS

Who's afraid of the big bad PIGS? In the real world, the wolf should be afraid of the PIGS. One little pig knocked on the wolf's door and caused such a panic around the world. Now, the wolf is afraid that other little PIGS will come to knock on his door.

Let's take a look at STI weekly:

Weekly chart shows a bearish divergence on long term force index, but not on macd histogram yet. The degree of selldown isn't as much as that experienced in January earlier this year. Maybe not yet? haha! The previous selldown took 4 weeks (4 bars) before stabilising, so perhaps we'll see the same too? The selldown had brought STI to the value zone already, so the minimum target of the selldown had been reached. It will most likely over-react to the downside.

STI daily:

There's a gap support around the region of 2790 to 2820. Looks like that level also coincides with the mid term trendline established in Aug last year. Another 1.5% to 2.5% to go? I don't think now is the time to sell your cats and dogs to raise capital to buy up stocks. I finished my first wave of buying...will wait for clearer signs before putting in more money.

When there's nothing to do, do nothing.

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