Thursday, July 12, 2007

Swiber India :)

Trades done today:
Sold my entire 1 lot of Yellow page at 1.38
(ROI = -20.3%, ROI with dividend = -15.6%)

Do not believe in the business. Bought for wrong reasons (based on brokerage report), should have cut losses but didn't. Been a year and it still haven't reached the price I had paid (1.67). I'll rather put in other stocks (though the dividend yield is quite good).

STI did pretty well today, rose up 30 pts to close at 3625. Volume was slightly higher than the previous day, with 502 gainers compared to 330 losers. A glance across the board, it looks like a broadbased rally where big caps and pennies cheong. This was after Dow's good performance yesterday's night, closing at 70 plus points.

Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, so it causes nikkei to be jitterish. Market don't like uncertainty, if everything is settled, it will move on from there. Nikkei seems to be the only bourse that dropped, at this moment. Europe and the rest of the major markets are green. The thing we have to look out for is yen carry trade. Not sure if it can affect STI (as dkk mentioned). Just be cautious.

Swiber announced the incorporation of a wholly owned subsidiary in India. Now listen to this: Swiber India will act as a platform from which the group can tap on business opportunities in the fast growing India and middle east asia region. I absolutely like the expansionist management of Swiber, always looking for opportunities to expand into untapped regions. It has presence in Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Austrialia, UK and US. I'll definitely be looking out for more contracts in new untapped regions. Really well poised to tap this hot industry.

Could that be the reason for Swiber's continued rally? Been rallying nonstop for 5 consecutive days already. With this new announcement, might even rallying tmr, despite the usual profit taking on Fri. Swiber is catching up with Cosco...the ultimate mad powerhouse.

Just learnt that JP morgan increased their stake of swiber from 2.46% to are in :)

Haha, yongnam really behaved as I expected! Profit taking all the way from 9 am. Can see it briefly shoot up to 0.565 but the selling pressure is too great. It's better like that, wash out all the weaker holders. As I told some here, I'm planning to take profit on CSC. It's not that I don't believe in it anymore, it's just that I'm overly exposed to construction stocks. Since it's a speculative type of stocks...I do just that - speculate and sell on news.

I'll think more about my exit strategy over the weekends, don't like to think intra-week.

Lianbeng catching up with yongnam...haha! Breakout of resistance level at 0.515 and closed today at 0.53 (intraday high of 0.54). My target is 0.585 (based on flag) so I'll let it ride.

Pac andes

Pac andes going up and down within the two trendlines. Doesn't look like triangle formation because volume didn't decrease. Even if it is (depending on how you see it), it's a symmetrical triangle with no bullish or bearish bias.

If you ask me, I think the chances of going up is higher. Ema 50 days is a good moving support line for pac andes, so I don't think it'll drop below the blue line (discount whipsaw reaction). Resistance level at 0.935 (61.8% fibo) and 1.01 (23.6% fibo). I hope to see it clear above ema20 days, then take out resistance at 0.935.

Based on weekly chart, tp for pac andes is $1.18. That is provided it broke out of $1 (my breakout level based on weekly charts). Personally I think once the rights issue are settled (around 2 weeks from now), it should go up. Why do I say that? I wanted to buy the mother share, but I also subscribed for my allocated rights and excess rights. Since the result of my application is not known yet, I don't want to commit by buying more on the open market now. That kind of thinking explains the phase that pac andes is undergoing...not up not down.

Pac andes is not a contra's long term. So, let's see how this turns out. Severely underplayed in my opinion. Can look at these brokerage reports. Note that the target price is pre-rights. To convert the pre rights price to post rights, just apply the formula:

(Price + 0.52)/2

Oh, haven't even talked about dividends. Coming right up after the rights issue is settled. Proposed dividend is 0.54 cts per shares (post rights), that means $5.40 per post rights lot. Hope those holding pac andes feeling more confident? haha

Dow doing very well +130, europe a sea of green!