Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Eve of fed meeting

Today is the eve of the all important fed meeting outcome. If I'm not wrong, the results would be out tonight (or rather tmr morning) at 3 am like that.

Quite a couple of important things happened. First of all, china officials have said that the property market in china is reaching bubble proportion so is really going to tighten it. Shanghai bourse fell 5% today, dragging hsi down 350 points, totally wiping off yesterday's gain. Why the over-reaction? I thought last time it has already been known that officials are clamping down on property in china because it's too hot already? Perhaps this time, officials admitted that it's a bubble too, that's the difference.

This news eradicated whatever i've said earlier about hsi. Daily charts on hsi is bearish engulfing, quite a powerful reversal trend to the downside. HSI broke ema14 days already, with stochastics and rsi showing downtrend. All in all, quite bearish. We have to look out for break in trendline support, projected at around 19,900. If it breaks, another horizontal support at around 19,300. I would term this as a correction first, unless trendline broke, then we'll see a prolonged downtrend for hsi.

Actually it's all in bernanke's mouth now. If he says something everyone likes, tmr sti and hsi cheong. If not...

Today's price action:
Pac andes
Yesterday: 0.98
Today: 0.935

Up 0.085, down 0.045 today, most likely due to profit taking.

Yesterday: 1.12
Today: 1.11

Still dropping..sigh...

Yesterday: 0.090
Today: 0.085

Yesterday: 0.445
Today: 0.43

MAE enggr:
Yesterday: 0.235
Today: 0.23

Those holding shares dealing mainly in china properties do be careful. The cooling off measure taken by china to cool its property sector should not be taken too lightly. Those who hold singapore shares for short/medium term, should be looking at opportunities to sell. I can almost smell correction coming, can you? I bought my sti put warrants long time ago to hedge my positions (still in the red now).

Did not check stocks today

It's very liberating not to wake up early to check the market. In fact, I didn't even on the computer until now.

So imagine my surprise when Pac andes rose 0.085 to 0.98 today. Wondered what happened.

HSI rose 220 points, so the worst is over now for hsi i guess. Bullish trend resuming. STI rose around 2 points, but there's still bullish bias. I think it depends on what the fed meeting goes. Basically what people are looking out for is the direction. Are we going to cut or not cut interest rates. That will affect US market tonight and subsequently trickle down to asia regions. Of course, unless there is divergence of regional bourses away from US side again.

Daily charts for sti shows a top tweezer candlestick pattern. Seems like tmr might be a downday but I won't confirm. It's not a really strong pattern so ... my point is tmr's outlook depends on US fed meeting later. Whatever happens, no cause for worry yet.

Yesterday: 0.095
Today: 0.090

Failed to break resistance at 0.095. Because of that, top tweezer pattern formed, looks like tmr going to go down from here. Hopefully it'll test support and bounce up.

Yesterday: 0.46
Today: 0.445

Fell on light volume. Looking at it to test support at 0.435. If it breaks, run. No faith in this stock. I'll just see for a few more days, if still not good i'll 'drop' this and stop following.

MAE enggr
Yesterday: 0.225
Today: 0.235

Still very high vol, something's up. Doji pattern sighted, a reversal for uptrend? Basically looks good for this stock. RSI recently test 30% and now going for uptrend. MACD and stochastics are looks good.

1.12 yesterday and today
Formed bottom tweezer pattern, reversal pattern (Why so many tweezer pattern today??). Weekly charts - price touching ema20 now, hopefully can act as support, otherwise bye bye longcheer.
Daily, i think worst is 'almost' over. I have to see tmr price action to confirm.
Heard results out on 8th feb, hope it'll bring momentum to this stock.

Monday, January 29, 2007

Still bullish? YES

Today STI made an impressive recovery.

It flew up by 41 points upwards. It caught me by surprise actually, because I've expected STI to resume uptrend only around middle of this week. So, with this moderate rise, STI should be resuming its upward trend from now on. The only thing to be careful of is the slew of data coming from US side. Although US market and regional bourses have diverged, we'll never know what might happen this week.

This week, almost a quarter of the companies in S&P500 are reporting their quarter results this week, so I heard. Add to that a host of important economic indicators, and we'll have a cocktail of uncertainty and doubt in the already very volatile market.

On tues (tonight) we'll have:

ICSC-UBS Store Sales (wk1/27 , 2007)
Redbook (wk1/27 , 2007)
Consumer Confidence (Jan , 2007)
FOMC Meeting Begins (Dec , 2006)


MBA Purchase Applications (wk1/26 , 2007)
ADP Employment Report (Jan , 2007)
Employment Cost Index
Gross Domestic Product (Q4a , 2006)
Employment Cost Index (Q4 , 2007)
Construction Spending (Dec , 2006)


Employment Situation (Jan , 2007)
Consumer Sentiment (Jan , 2007)
Factory Orders (Dec , 2006)

The more important ones should be the fed meeting. Wonder what Bernanke might say next? Rate cute? Inflation remains prime concern so no rate cute?

HSI on the other hand is still quite weak. Fell around 45 points today. Actually I was monitoring today, it fell quite heavily in the morning before recovering to -45 points when it closed at 4pm. I expect more downside but it should be ending soon. As I've said, both STI and HSI are still healthily bullish, no sign of the dreaded crash coming any time soon. Perhaps after CNY?

Longcheer is doing badly, as expected because of the downtrend in both weekly and daily charts. Should be finishing soon, I hope, because seeing it drop from a high of 1.37 all the way down to 1.12 is painful, to put it mildly. I do hope my decision not to cut loss is not going to cost me a lot of pain in the long run. Portfolio bleeding heavily.

Pac andes and yellow page made quite impressive gains though, nobody knows why because there's no annoucement nor anything. Maybe it's following the recent acquisition of more trawlers for china fish (subsidiary of pac andes). Yellow pages..hmm, why the jump up? Probably report seasonings coming soon? Yellow pages is one of the most highly paid dividend stocks to hold because their dividend policy is to give out 100% profit as dividend. Long term charts for yellow pages looks good, underlying uptrend based on MACD. Should be seeing yellow pages going uptrend. Same thing for pac andes.

Japan land:
Yesterday: 0.09
Closed today: 0.095
Volume: 17.4 million (around 3 times of vol averaged over 50 days)

Hit resistance at 0.095, don't know if it'll U-turn or breakthrough 0.095. If it does break through, japanland will cheong. We'll see

Yesterday: 0.46
Closed today: 0.46
Volume: 10.1 million (compared to vol ave 50 days which is 16 million)

Going to try to test resistance at 0.485. Intra day high of 0.48 reached.

Another hot stock I picked up from the program:
MAE Engg
No effort to chart out resistance and support lvl.
Closed today: 0.225

Which program did I use? It's chartnexus:
Free, with paid monthly subscriptions if you like to try out their xpert trader software. I'm not paid to advertise this software so I'm just saying that it's good to use at least the free version because it will update itself everynight (if you run the application everynight) and you can use the charting software to find out the technicals of the stocks. Good training.

I won't be actively monitoring the market intra day anymore. Sick of my streak of bad luck. Lost another 130+ in warrants today. I CAN'T STAND THE SLOW INTERNET!! Used to be able to key in trades in seconds and now I can only do it after maybe 3 to 5 min? By then all the reasons to sell or buy have already changed! How to do intra day trading like this??

I decided to spend my time wisely instead of wasting it refreshing and staring at little numbers that tick up and down. What a life?! This self imposed exile will last till I'm ready. Probably around CNY, I guess. I'll still update myself on the market everynight and post my findings and analysis here though.

Sunday, January 28, 2007

Thank you!

I would like to say a big thank you for all the people who had been religiously following this blog.

I've heard people who have to read it twice a day, like reading newspaper and I've known people who keeps refreshing it to see if there's an update. I really appreciate this, I do. Although most of this stuff are just my nonsensical losses and minute wins, maybe plus a bit of crappy advice that nobody should follow, I really do hope that one day, you'll be able to see me say a big HEY, I FINALLY CAN BE A FULL TIME TRADER! COME JOIN ME AND WE'LL HUAT TOGETHER!

I would like to see this blog becoming a good reference website for people to have their trading ideas. As of now, most of these stuff are crap because I'm still learning and losing. But if I've never given up hope on myself, I do hope you remember this too. Money can always earn back, but don't lose your confidence. If you go broke (like me), just smile it off and treat it as another of life's many stumbles.

Looks like next year is 'unfavourable' for me. Just look at Straits times today. For those horses out there, congrats! Haha, I'll lie low and hibernate for a year to prepare for a brand whole new year in 2008!

All the best for your next trading week :)

Friday, January 26, 2007

Still bullish?

I didn't monitor the market except in the morning.

DOW went down 120 points, so that's a big correction for US side. This will spill over to STI and HSI respectively. It did, in the morning, STI was down like 40 points and I guess it recovered somewhat to close at negative 20 points, not too bad right? HSI down another 380 points, after yesterday's negative 120 plus.

Let's look at both the charts

STI under going some correction for now. Looks like more downside to come. I think it might use ema20 days as a moving support, so it shouldn't go below the blue line. If it does, the next one to look at is the ema50 days. I don't think it likely to go below ema20 days, because overall it's still bullish. Stochastis %K line slowing down, could be seeing downside with less magnitude. Perhaps middle of next week we can see a resumed uptrend again. It's good to see some correction, if it doesn't go down, it won't go up further.

HSI doesn't look too good for short term. The blue line is the ema14 days for hsi. We can see that today it plunges all the way down to touch ema14 days. Monday, no doubt will be another downday. We can see it from the stochastics chart. It just began going on its downtrend, so we won't see a reversal soon. Perhaps end of next week? If RSI drops below 50%, then the downtrend will continue eevn more. Seems like 50% RSI is the support line. We'll see if it test this 50% mark and rebounces. If not, prepare for more downside. Overall still bullish. HSI is at a crossroad now, if anytime it head upwards before it goes lower than 19,700, HSI is still bullish. If it goes below 19,700, then we have to look at the next peak - does it cross over 20,700 like that. Basically, look out for lower peaks and lower lows to confirm downtrend.

Using macD indicator screening, here's a few stocks that are worth a shot:
1. CNA group
2. Penguin
3. Japanland
4. SeeHS

In my opinion, JapanLand and SeeHS stands a good chance. Why? Both RSI are above 50%, so still bullish. Both weekly charts look excellent too.

Let's run a trial to see if I'm right:
Price now: 0.090
Resistance: 0.095, 0.110
Support: 0.075

Price now: 0.460
Resistance: 0.485, next resistance at 0.530
Support: 0.430, 0.365

Alright enough of homework. TR for the week: nearly 10k losses. This due to longcheer reaching 1.14. I made 140 plus from warrants trading this week.

Some sharing

Sorry for not updating yesterday.

Not been active in the market for these 2 days, esp today. Can't even be bothered checking my watchlist as I'm currently not trading warrants. Why not? Been on a losing streak so I thought I could rest my mind for a while, for a break.

As I mentioned earlier, I noticed that US market and regional bourses have nothing to do with each other already. Dow closed positive 80 yesterday and look what HSI and STI did. They corrected quite badly, with hsi -120 and sti -41.

Dow didn't look too good tonight, but seriously, who cares?! I'm a bit worried about longcheer because it drop to 1.15 today. Overall daily and weekly is going on downtrend, I suppose there's more downside to come. I shall hold, because I think longcheer has potential due to 3G in china.

My sti puts went a bit alive today, after sti corrected. Not so bad lah, but still in the red leh. Hmm, overall I think sti will correct maybe to touch ema. Overall still bullish.

Let me share a few interesting things:
1. Based on joseph's cycle, the predicted top of the market will be in 2008. At that point in time, that will also be the start of the bear market, which will last for 7 years until 2015. It was so called joseph's cycle because if u go see the bible, it said during the egyptian blah blah, there will be 7 years of famine and 7 years of joy or something. So he became the first person to know the importance of time cycles in nature.

2. Based on bradley's date, the important points to take note for reversal are on march 10th and march 20th. These are the nearest two dates to take note, I'll post more next time. Bradley's date is based on astrology where they put some numbers to planets and the no. will tell which day (+-4 calender days to +-1 week) there will be a market reversal. Meaning...if the market is top, it will go down and vice versa. Quite accurate, esp the impt dates (the 2 I mentioned are not the most impt ones, most impt one is in Oct).

Sooo, I suppose you know what to look out for lah. Just be careful, trade wisely.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Warrant scare

What a trading day...

Had another scare of my life today trading warrants. This is how I see it today. Dow closed badly last night at neg. 80 so I thought today we should we seeing some corrections. Not those major ones, but at least intermediate in strength because of the underlying strength in both hsi and sti.

So, I was tempted to buy puts in the morning but luckily the slow internet connection sort of saved me from buying. In the end, I waited till market open for hsi before buying call warrants.

1: Bought 10 lots @ 0.915
2: Sold 10 lots @ 0.925
3: Bought 10 lots @ 0.920
4: Bought 10 lots @ 0.900
5: Sold 20 lots @ 0.925

On retrospect, I should have stopped at trade 2. Looking at how hsi dived down to 20600 support and went back up is not a nice experience. I was faltering between cutting losses (big heavy losses around 1k) or holding overnight. In the end I did nothing and went to sleep during lunch.

When I awoke, the situation became more favourable because Merryll Lynch upgraded china mobile (one of the stocks in the hsi index). I guess it rose steadily upwards after that. At the height it reached 0.915 (enough to cover all my losses) but I was greedy and queued to sell at 0.920. Then it dived. That happens around 3:15pm. I thought OH MY GOD I'm going to screw my portfolio again?! At that time I calmed down a bit and told myself that I'll sell at the next high even at a loss. I prepared to cut at 0.910, taking some losses of around 90. Better than losing 1 k I thought and no way I'm going to hold overnight because we're near the market top.

Luckily, another chance came and I seized it. I was cancelling my order to sell at 0.920 and going to press the submit button, when I saw the ticker went up by another bid to buy at 0.920. I straight away key in the order and closed my position. Waves of relief came over me...and I thought what the heck, I won't be doing this kind of things anymore, at least for now.

The price went up slightly to a height of 0.935 after market closes for hsi, but eventually came down to 0.925/0.930. I wouldn't care, I closed my position with no losses and still a small gain of $100, I feel overjoyed already. Could have died today man...jeez..

The whole point of this is that if you bet with the trend, you are going to win big and lose small. Come to think of it, if you went contrarian and bet against the trend , potentially you could win big if you hit the magic spot which is at the peak or trough (depending on whether you buy calls or puts). But if you went with the trend and buy calls when the trend is up and buy puts when the trend is down, you are making less money but your chances of losing is lesser because the margin of error for wrong entry points is much much wider. Look at me, I enter a wrong trade, enter again to average down, waited for the index to go all the way down and went back up again, still made a slight profit. I've got a lot more to learn about this market...

Longcheer went downhill today, in fact it is now trading below my stop loss. But that was due to special circumstances in which insitutional investors bought the shares at a vendor placement at a discount of 1.14. I guess the price might reach around 1.14 for the time being but I think the prospect for longcheer remains. As such, I would not exercise my cut loss even though it is triggered. I hope my decision is correct.

A major revelation. I think the local and regional market is diverging from US market. Look at today, dow jones fell by 80 points and what? Hsi fell by 2 points? STI dropped 10 points, nikkei fell 15 points?? What is happening? Why the sudden bullishness in regional market? All so scary. I would rather STI drop more so that future drop will not be so painful and see it rise all the way so fast. HSI is even worse, you call today a correction?? Been rising non-stop for 4 consecutive days and we have a drop of 2 points today. Tmr should see HSI peaking, based on stochastics, overall still bullish. Same too for STI.

We're really in a crazy bull market.

Monday, January 22, 2007

STI and HSI broke all time high

MM Lee made a comment on Sat/Sun that the corporate tax rate for singapore companies would be cut by a minimum of 1%.

Look at where sti stands now. It was up 72 points, the biggest I've ever seen since I've traded. The market shows a lot of things to me. I heard that the biggest ever single day increase was in 1987 (coincidentally the year where dow jones crashed badly in the infamous 87' Oct crash), where it rose 107 points in a single day.

I have every reasons to wish STI to correct soon. The more important one being that I had bought put warrants for it. But the second one, is also equally important. There is big gap not covered near 3080, if it did not attempt to cover that gap now and continue to rise further, eventually when the inevitably comes, it will be all the more painful because it will drop all the way till it nears 3080. This is to cover the gap caused today.

HSI did not lack behind too. It rose all the way to 440 points. Now, tell me frankly, what kind of crazy bull market are we looking at? The big thing here is the both STI and HSI shows no signs of weakness at all, no faltering, just keeps cheonging up and up. HSI still have more room for upside, and I think we just might be able to see this crazy rally go all the way for another month for Chinese new year.

This is scary... I think I need to sell my put warrants for sti when the market corrects slightly. Fighting against trend is suicidal, I already know it many times before.

Today I made some small money buying call warrants for hsi. Bought at 0.765 (10 lots), but sold at 0.77. I was being overtly cautious, I guess having lost quite a sum recently. Know this, I could have made a potential $1500 today, having bought at a local low. Bad thing is that I sold too early on signs of uncertaintly. It didn't help that I was about to leave for work too so I can't catch onto the next wave up. Nevertheless, no regrets, I did what I thought was good for me at the point in time. Looking back in hindsight always make a fool of everybody.

Longcheer made a staggering volume of 65 million today, topping the charts. This was due to a 48 million shares placement where the top 2 shareholders sold their stacks in the company to institutional investors at a discount of 1.14 to last Fri's closing of 1.23. Imagine 65 million trades done...the average volume for the past 50 days is only a measly 3.5 million, so that's 20 times more. I do not understand why there is such a big selloff, where the intra-day reached a low of 1.17 in the morning, before rising up to 1.26 and then dropping back to 1.19 again. Luckily it closed above 1.18, because that was my support and cut-loss trigger point.

I placed a queue to buy longcheer at 1.17 when I saw it dropped to this price in the morning. I thought there's no chance of grabbing at this big discount, so I left the queue order there and left for work. Who knows around 4:35pm, I received confirmation of my buy at 1.17. Haha, that brought my total longcheer holding to 30 lots at an average buy price of 1.19833.

I really want to sell off my stocks holdings soon. Seeing all this ditsy titsy rise in index makes me remember the May 06 selldown. Let's see if tmr STI and HSI will correct down or still rally more.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Portfolio bleeding: TR = neg $7.5 k

I bought some call warrants for hsi today after hsi opened. I don't dare to buy before market opens because I've seen too many days where hsi broke expectation and trade in the opposite direction before. So, I'll play safe.

I bought 10 lots at 0.64 and another 10 lots at 0.625, averaging down to 20 lots at 0.6325. Detected some weakness so I sold when I just break even at 0.640, getting some small profit of $60. It rose much higher than that, but it's okay. At that point in the time, the bull don't seem to be strong, so I'll rather not hope and get my profit off the table first.

Bought more sti puts at 0.055. How long will it run up? For this week, I think it rose up 4 times, only 1 day down day.

STI still looks extremely bullish. What's more incredible is the surge in foreign funds coming over. But the problem is if they leave, they are also going to cause a major crash. Looking at stochastics and MACD, seems like we have reached a peak, so might see some correction next week, not those small small ones that we've seen this for this week. Whether we have a CNY rally depends a lot on how other bourses are doing, since STI have no backbone, always following others.

This week's portfolio is not good at all, cut loss on a couple of trades, lost money on my warrants too. But the thing that still makes me happy is that I'm actually less adverse to cutting losses now, which is a good thing. After i've learnt to stop my losses when I found out my analysis is wrong, I will then be able to hold on to profitable trades and minimise my wrong trades. Good in the long run.

As a record, fabchem, which I've cut losses at 0.625, fell to 0.6 today. Ellipsiz which I've cut at 0.765 remained the same. HSI warrants which i've cut yesterday at 0.155 fell to 0.150. The prices I've quoted is the closing price. So you see that if I didn't cut my losses early, I either sitting on a stale trade with my money stuck there, or I'll have lost more. Last time I kept thinking that paper losses is not real losses, that means that if I didn't sell off my losing trade, I haven't lose any money at all. But I realised it's all wrong! Holding onto losing trades damages your mentality, it's like having a tumor. Every day you are just going to wonder if this stock goes up to that level which you've bought, if not, you gave a sigh and then hope tmr will be better.

Seriously I've been through all these hopes and expectations. For me, it's different now. I will not hesitate to cut losses if my analysis is wrong, if my stop loss is triggered, even if later on the stock rose after I sell. In the long run, I believe this approach will help me grow my portfolio of good stocks which I will hold for mid-term.

Last thing, I thought longcheer today have a chance to break 1.26 resistance but it didn't do it convincingly. It went up to an intra-day high of 1.27 but came down to 1.23 now. Looking at the charts, it seems like it is undergoing accumulation. On up days, the volume is huge, on down days the volume is light. Very good sign indeed.

I'll write my reflections for the week next time.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

More cut losses for hsi put warrants

Went to work, when I came back, my put warrants for hsi sank. Sigh..

Things like this happen to me very frequently these days. I cut loss, making some painful losses. But I still cut loss happily, I think I'm getting the hang of cutting losses now. Just cut, don't think, next time try again but learn your lesson well.

The lesson is that I'm betting against the trend again. I keep on anticipating hsi to correct but the bull keep on coming. With the dow closed negative, the bull also came. Almost everywhere is green...really what is happening? China clamped down on its overheated property market, hsi also went up. I guess the major push this time is Japan's interest rate. It's supposed to be raised by 0.25% by it didn't, so shortist got killed, longist went in. Maybe that's the reason for today's surge.

Tonight CPI result will be out for US side. If favourable, worldwide market will go for another round of bullish run. If not, correction might begin tomorrow.

Longcheer still doing nicely. Pullback with light volume, so no alarms yet. Going on a short term downtrend, but as long as my cut loss is not triggered I'll hold. If it ever tested 1.18/1.19, I'll buy more.

Oh, bought 10 lots of put warrants for sti today too at 0.065. It tmr sti goes up, I'll accumulate more until it finally corrects. At this rate that the world market is climbing, a big crash is coming. Crazy bull. Total amount for the puts is only 700 plus, even if goes to nearly zero, I can still take the losses. But of course, before it happens, I'll have already cut losses.

My portfolio is bad bad bad. Sigh...but am I going to give up? No way.

Longcheer and my sti put warrants are the only ones that I'll concentrating for now, not shopping for more. I'll take a break and stop actively monitoring the market for now.

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Cut losses triggered

Today I had to cut loss on a number of stocks because my stop loss has been triggered.

Never had the discipline to exercise my cut loss, so today, having to cut 2 of my stocks is really an achievement. I believe it will get easier over time and through time, I'll find a good stock that runs instead of me cutting loss.

First to go is fabchem. I never knew why I bought it in the first place. I detected strong selling early in the morning, and in fact throughout the day. I cut loss near market close because the selling is really vigourous. The good thing is that I only bought 5 lots so it wasn't that bad. Still...a loss is a loss, not excuse. I bought at 0.675 (on impulse!!) and had to cut loss when it nears my cut loss of 0.62 (on high vol). Basically this stock has no support whatsoever, it just keep dropping. I might look at it when the charts are more favourable, but i guess that's not anytime soon.

Second to go is ellipsiz. I already noted the weakness in this stock a few days ago. So, today it really crashed on me. Price went below both ema20 and ema50, break through the strong support at 0.78 and the moving average line. I cut loss immediately even though the volume is not high (it was at average vol 50 days). If 0.76 short term support breaks, it'll go even lower, so I cut loss at 0.765. I bought at 0.7925 sold at 0.765.

Longcheer I didn't cut although it dropped quite a bit at low volume. Short term weakness detected. Might test support at 1.18 soon. I might add more then, we'll see.

Bought put warrants for hsi too. Luckily didn't buy in the morning because all the warrants (call or puts) all fell due to the lack of direction by hsi. It rose slightly up by 30 points today. I bought 15 lots at average price of 0.22667, sold 5 lots at 0.225 (a loss after commission) and still holding 10 lots overnight. I could have sold at a slight profit, atlas..but the dbs website really died on me. I missed two chances to cash out totally while stupidly waiting for the website to load. WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU DOING DBS?!

I seriously need to look at opening another account. I'll die if this happens again, esp. if I holding huge position. WTF is dbs doing, who's going to pay for all these losses man!

In a series of bad trading recently, so I'll stop trading for a while. After I close my position for the hsi put warrants tmr, I'll just do other things. Time for a deserved break. There's definitely more in life than just looking at numbers ticking up and down.

Although I lost some money, overall I'm glad that my portfolio management has improved vastly. At least, I dare to cut my losses and I already calculated my exit and entry strategy (except for that impulsive fabchem buy which I paid my lesson) before I enter a trade. I know I just had to manage my losses well, the profit will come after that.

I think i'm in phase 1 again: how to survive the market. Let's not talk about vast profits for the time being, let alone trading for a living.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Good and bad trades today

No charts today.

Did some good and bad trades. Bad trades because it's something that is not planned for. Sigh..greed greed..

Firstly, bought some put warrants for hsi around 1130am, when the market is near high. Don't know why I got the gut feeling to trade puts even when it's climbing. I must be really sieow. Anyway, it turned out well. I basically sold it because I need to go off and I'm sick of staring at the price all day. Bought small small, 5 lots at 0.225 and 5 lots at 0.220, so average down buy price is 0.2225, total 10 lots. It's small because my usual vol for warrants is at least 20, sometimes, 30 to 40 lots.

Anyway, sold when I had to go off, at 0.235, making a profit of 0.015. That's around $70 in profit only, not a big deal to cheer about. I treat it as a training ground for my on-the-spot technical reading of charts. If only the internet connection is more stable, i'll have bought and sold multiple times like in the past. But after taiwan's earthquake, internet connection became unreliable. Sometimes crawling. Too risky to do this kind of intra day swing trading.

What's the bad trade? I bought fabchem again. Mainly because I read the annoucement that dyna from US is going to acquire close to 30% of fabchem at 0.70. Since the price is trading at 0.645 before the announcement, I guess that it might gap up, so I went to buy at 0.675, 5 lots. Who knows it literally fell off whatever support it has (it was so weak that i can't even detect the support!) and dropped to 6.45 now. Come to think of it, it might be closing the intra-day gap before tmr can cheong further. Haha, optimistic way of looking.

If it drops more, I won't hesitate to cut loss again. Let's put the cut loss at 0.62 then, based on a rather significant mid-term support. Extremely unwise move by me today. I'm risking 330 for a 68 dollar gain. What am I thinking of? Too late to remedy, i'll watch fabchem carefully, no way is this stock going to drag my portfolio down again like last time.

Longcheer seems strong, selling till 1.24 on light volume. I am beginning to think that ema20 is the moving support line for longcheer, having bounced off it several times in the past. It is very very near ema20 now, so I hope tmr it can bounce off it again to greater heights.

Ellipsiz, some weakness detected. Spent half the day around 0.78/0.78, which is close to my cut loss of 0.78. If it closes at 0.78, I'll cut next day already, so luckily I don't have to do it. Selling was done at average volume, might be a cause for worry. I'll be monitoring this stock closely tmr too. It had better clear off 0.79 support turned resistance line with convincing volume. Otherwise, another candidate for cut loss.

Tmr all depends on how dow and nasdaq behaves. Futures for dow is +24, but i learnt that it can quickly turn nasty. HSI is directionless now, needs input from dow to move either up or down. Initially wanted to keep my puts, but thinking again, I better not hold overnight positions for warrants. HSI is so volatile nowadays. My feeling is that hsi open positive but close negative to touch the ema support line. Then we'll see if it can rebound again to test resistance at 20,200 and 20,400. Today didn't even come close to resistance at all, just hovering up and down 20,000. As a result, most of call and put warrants are down in price, because nobody knows what to expect. With earnings seasons in US, we could see a positive dow performance tonight, perhaps that might start off a chinese new year rally that all has been waiting eagerly for.

Monday, January 15, 2007

Ellipsiz looks a bit worrying

Had a wonderful trading day today.

Did all I had to do, nothing more nothing less. Both stocks that I bought, longcheer and ellipsiz are doing well, especially longcheer. Looks ready to break resistance. Ellipsiz a little worrying, because throughout the day,I saw it trying to break free of the 0.785/0.790 area, eventually closing at 0.79. Hopefully all the sellers at 0.79 are cleared and it can get ready to cheong up to 0.825 and above.

HSI went crazy today. Possibly the very last surge of energy by speculators, pushing it past 20,000. 20,000 should act as a support (should be a weak one) and the next target to aim for is 20,200 then 20,400. Then it'll be in no man's zone because nobody will know what to expect already. For now, hsi looks very bullish with all the indicators pointing for more rise. I'll be looking at call warrant tmr.

Tmr I'll look at my stocks holding carefully for signs of weakness, esp. for ellipsiz. If anything goes, I might be looking to sell off ellipsiz because the run up don't look very strong to me. I might be wrong.

I decided not to post my daily total returns anymore. It can affect my psychology and made me too greedy. I'll post it every weekend though for recording purpose. Keep up on the disciplined approach to trading!

Lunch time thoughts for the day

Today I started out feeling very sure of what I wanted, having done my homework last night.

Talk about my favourite longcheer first. Opened at 1.24 but I didn't jump in to buy because I'm not sure of the volume and strength yet. Due to dow's last fri surge, there will be morning reaction until around 930am or later. So bought 5 lots at 1.23 around that time. On hindsight, I would have bought after hsi opens and pull back a little. Around 11, longcheer went down to a low of 1.21 and it represents a very good entry point because it is so near to support at 1.19/1.20. I totally forgot that china stocks in singapore is also highly dependent on hsi's outlook too. I'll bear that in mind.

So far, longcheer staying at 1.23/1.24, trading at 1.5 million volume. That's half the average volume already. I want to see longcheer trading above 1.24 at a volume greater than 3.57 million. With hsi surging upwards after hitting 19,700, I think should not be a problem.

I also bought ellipsiz because macD histogram shows a good entry point. I bought 5 lots at 0.795, another 5 lots at 0.79 to average down. Support at 0.79. Resistance at 0.82, next higher resistance at 0.835 (strong resistance). Cut loss trigger at 0.78.
Risk reward: 187 to 362 or nearing 1:2.

A more conservative risk/reward is 187 to 212, or 1:1.1

I want to see ellipsiz closing above or equal to 0.795 at a volume higher than 2.4 million. Now it is at 0.79/0.795 trading at 1.3 million volume. Reached an intra day high of 0.805. Since it opened at 0.805, and covered the intraday gap already, I think it should go up from there now.

Tonight dow not opening, due to martin luther king's day or something, so nobody to disturb our mini run day. Nikkei opened strongly, at 170 now, so hsi should be too bad. Hsi might encounter resistance around 20,000. If it breaks, cheong ah!

Sunday, January 14, 2007

Other charts analysis

Other stocks analysis

Doing this for a friend. At the same time, practising my charting techniques too.

Biosensor weekly chart shows that it is consolidating and not moving up or down. A bollinger squeeze is already in the making, so I should expect very strong movement up or down. It has been consolidating since july last year, so any movement will be a big one. The problem is deciding whether it's up or down. Looking at weekly, stochastics seems to have reached the bottom, so downside risk seems limited. MACD has been trending upwards since Aug last year and rsi is very near 50% mark. I think the probabily of a strong upside is more likely than a downside.

Daily chart - near term resistance at 0.875. Should it break, we should see it coming to another resistance at 0.89. Bullish gravyard doji sign spotted, going to need a white candle stick tmr to confirm uptrend. But it might not be a strong sign. Bearish short term charts, but it could be because it is consolidating, so it will fluctuate up and down till a direction is confirmed.

I do not know when the result is out, so maybe can wait till then before selling. Wait a week or two, if it drops sharply, breaking a rather weak support at 0.86, run first and run fast. For more upside, wait for it to break 0.875 first, then 0.89.

Global voice

Global voice weekly and daily charts looks good . Daily wise, short term retracement is expected but still on uptrend, so no worries. I expect it to retrace to strong support at 0.14, next level at 0.13. As I said, shouldn't be a cause for concern unless it goes below 0.13. Next resistance at 0.15, once it breaks, cheong!

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Longcheer analysis

Longcheer analysis

Learnt a few neat trick, so going to try it out on longcheer now.

I drew a support line way back from mid 2006 at 1.18. Since it has been tested multiple times, I'll say this is a good and significant support. Longcheer has tested the dynamic resistance provided by the trendline (slanted line) and pull back all the way near support at 1.18/1.19. Look at the candlestick pattern, it is a tweezer pattern confirmed by white candle with high vol. on 12th Jan. Currently, it is closed at near term resistance of 1.24. Should it break this near term resistance, it should also have broken the ema20 days convincingly for me to believe that longcheer is on the uptrend again.

MacD histogram shows a green histogram with both lines above 0, after a period of 5 red histograms. To me, it is a sign that bottom has been reached and selling should have been finished. Ideally, both blue and red lines should be trending upwards but i guess for short term it's okay.

Stochastic look excellent, %K between below 20% and rebounded upwards, exceeding both %D line. More upside to come till it reaches the 80% mark.

RSI starts to look more like an uptrend now, and it recently tested support at 50% and rebounding from there. A short term upside is to be expected.

This is what I'll do. Monday, I expect it to gap up, so I'll buy some, preferably at 1.23 or lower for intraday. As long as it closes above 1.24, I'll be sure of more upside. Support is at 1.18. I'll risk 0.05 with a potential reward of reaching 1.29(next resistance) to 1.35/1.36 (trendline resistance). So that's a risk/reward of 1:1 at least. I'm willing to risk $500, so it works out to be 10 lots.

Before anybody buys, let me warn this: weekly chart don't look safe. Looks like it will hit lower within next 2 weeks to 1.18. But short term is good.

After all the analysis, will I suffer from analysis paralysis? Nah...i'll buy 5 lots first to test my analysis. If successful, i'll be confident to follow my analysis. Risk $250 to earn at least $250 (could reach up to $600) shld be good risk management.

Entry point : 1.23/1.24
Cut loss : 1.18 since it's such a strong resistance (tested 3 times) turned support (tested 2 times) that spreads over 3 months

Friday, January 12, 2007

TR: neg. $6k

I'm still sitting on the sidelines watching because I can't trade.

Let me share with you my analysis on longcheer and hsi. Let's do the Longcheer first.

Longcheer has completed its exhaustion gap. What's a exhaustion gap? It exists when a stock keeps going up and up until it runs out of buyers, so there's nobody to push the price up anymore and it'll drop. It will drop below the trendline on low volume then resume its uptrend when it has rested enough. Looking at the price exceeding ema20 is not good enough for me. It must actually exceed the bottom of the channel trend line with heavy volume in order to classify it as a genuine breakout. The bottom channel trend line is significant support turned resistance line because of the no. of occasions the stocks rebounded from it and cheong after it broke out of it, so this breakout (if it happens) will be something I'll look out for. 1.26 will be the target to aim for in the next 2 trading day. If it fails to exceed with heavy vol, run.

Histogram shows sign of reversing. It has reached the bottom and is now on the uptrend, even though blue line is still below red. Stochastics - %K line exceeds %D line and %D line shows signs of reaching the bottom. Downside risk is very low.

Conclusion: Look out for breakout of bottom of channel trend line at 1.26 within the next 2 trading days. Look out for higher than average vol. when it breaks to confirm that it's a genuine breakout. Indicators are mixed, hard to say what will happen. If it fails to break 1.26, prepare for more downside. Quite unlikely though.

HSI analysis

Today it went up around 260 points to close at 19,613, effectively covering the gap it had around mid-early dec at 19,300. Once the gap is covered, there will be room to go up. To confirm uptrend, look out for price exceeding ema at around 19,700 with heavy volume. If it fails to reach, can get ready to buy put warrants again.

Stochastics - %K reversing its downtrend, going up, while %D line shows signs of slowing down its downtrend. Whether it has reached the bottom is too early to tell. Basically, it could reverse from here or go down. My bet is it'll go up.

RSI bottomed out and going up from here. Should see more upside.

Volume seems to be diverging from price, meaning that while price increases, volume drops. A bearish sign, though it's too early to tell. Must wait for a couple of days more to see confirmation.

Conclusion: Simple. If it breaks 19,700, buy calls. If it fails to break, buy puts. Even if it breaks, upside is quite limited since stochastics is at the middle, so before it can rise more, it must and will drop once it reaches the top. But the same goes for downside. Seems like more indicators are supporting the fact that hsi will break 19,700 then not. I'll bet on calls or buy nothing at all.

Market seems good today, though I'm not around to monitor closely. Longcheer went up by 0.020, bring up my total returns.

TR: neg $6k

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Reflection of my costly mistake

I'm on the sidelines watching today.

I can't trade cos my contra loss exceeded a certain percentage of my trading limits, so until I paid off my losses, I can't do a buy in. But I can't pay until they bill me right?? According to my experience, it might take 2 to 3 days. Good time for a break lah anyway..

I took the opportunity to do some studying of hsi. Last time, I bought warrants without looking at overall market trend and betted against the trend. Trend is my friend, if I buy against the trend, I'm bound to get small profits and huge losses, which is exactly what I did. My wins are 100, 130 but my losses counts in the thousands. This is because while hsi reverses its uptrend, I still bought call warrants. This is betting against the trend, a doomed outcome is ensured.

Look closely at hsi monthly charts. Ema has clearly reached the maximum point and is reversing towards a downtrend. Look at the stochastics - both lines going south with the red %K line below the blue %D line. No sign of reaching its bottom yet. Look at the rsi, it has been trending downwards when it reached its peak, again no sign of bottoming yet. Look at the volume divergence, the volume actually increases when it downtrends, a sign that selling is heavier and heavier. All of these indicators point towards at least a short term downtrend in hsi, and YET I BOUGHT CALL WARRANTS!

Goodness, I didn't even bother to read this monthly chart when I bought. I just looked at the highest volume in sgx for warrants, looked at nikkei and dow to see if its positive. Positive, buy call. Negative buy puts. Life is so simple?

I'm glad in a way that my losses helped me to realise this fatal flaw in my trading. If not corrected now, it could lead to even greater losses. That's the magic of trading. Every mistake, if u learn it well, provide a vast opportunity to learn things the hard way. I don't believe after falling here and there for another 5 years I can't be a better trader.

Notice that there's a gap up around early to mid dec? According to technicals, all gaps need to be filled up (except certain cases). Clearly, hsi is reversing to cover the gap, otherwise it will not move up. My belief is that hsi will cover the gap within this week, while all the indicators would have reached the bottom already, and will resume its uptrend from there. While there is more downside risk now, it is limited. The gap is at 19,300, so it should go down to there and trend upwards. When it reached 19,300, that would be an excellent time to buy call warrants again. For now, if there's a day when hsi goes up, put warrants is an attractive buy.

Do I regret losing all these hard earned money? No. If I learn the ropes properly now, this will be more insurance against any kind of employment situations. Even if I'm out of job, I can still rely on this to give me some kind of income. I hope at that kind of age, I'll be a savy investor to really not working anymore but trade daily. What better time but to train now?

Good courage breaks bad luck!

TR: neg. $6.8k

I heard a lot of pple kena killed today in the market.

The sudden and vicious drop in shares price caught many unaware, including me. I didn't expect hsi to continue dropping for 3 consecutive trading days. Almost wiped off 600 to 700 points in 3 days. That's like crazy..

Not in a mood to discuss more. I'll just say when I think about longcheer.

Longcheer dropped another 0.030. All expected, though the magnitude of the drop isn't what I expected. But the selling is on a decreasing volume so I think shouldn't be a cause for concern. Stochastics dropped below 20%, quite rare for longcheer. So the next level to look out for reversal will be when %K drops near to 0% level. To cut the story short, I think still have a little more room to go down before it rises. As long as the price don't drop below green ema100 days, I think really no cause for concern. Btw, 5th straight consecutive day of dropping already.

TR: negative $6,8 k

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Painful lesson learnt

Painful day for me..

Cut loss at .049 after hsi opens. Made a loss of 5.3k. My most heavy loss ever!
This lesson must be learnt sooner than later: CUT LOSSES PROMPTLY

Today is a bloody red day worldwide. Almost all the Asia pacific bourses fell. I'm talking about quite a major correction, not those little tiny correction. Has it started already?

Thailand is really screwing everyone in asia. Everytime they do this kind of control in their control, the world's market crashes. First was the asian financial crisis in 1997, then last year dec, then now again.

Another thing I learnt was that if the contra losses are a certain percentage against your limit, you are barred from entering any more buys. I'm at this point now, so until I paid off my contra losses, I can't be trading. Which is good, cos I think i'll take a break for now.

Yellow page final reached it's parabolic blow off point, it fell very sharply by 0.18. Luckily I did not chase this stock otherwise would be in deep shit now. This kind of sharp rise (been rising everyday for past 7 consecutive days) is simply unsustainable. Longcheer fell slightly too, now at support 1.19/1.20. Shouldn't expect it to fall lower.

Total returns as of now: a very disappointing neg. $6.7k

I'll update more tonight of today's bloodshed day.

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Longcheer analysis

Longcheer analysis

I pretty much said it in the charts already.

Time to weigh the evidence:
1. It seems like price did not rebound off trendline today, so a possible exhaustion gap is in the making. Which is one of the scenario that I said might happen yesterday. If it's an exhaustion gap, then I think price will go down further, reverse, then cheong past the trendline and carry on the uptrend from there. Looks like more downside to go, but should be a weak one.

2. MACD histogram shows more downside. I have not seen a histogram with just one histogram below the 0 line and go upwards from there. SO, I think should go down, hopefully a little tmr, finish the downtrend next 3 days (min) and go north of 0 line from there.

3. Hard to say what momentum will do. Might rebound off momentum MA line, or might go below more then rebound. Each way is equally possible, so can't tell what might happen tmr from this indicator. A good sign is that the blue line is confirming its min. point and u-turning. A bullish sign that a reversal is about to come soon.

4. Stochastics - based on history, longcheer's stochastics seldom go below 20% line. So tmr, %K most likely will not breach the 20% line. What this translate is that a little price drop might be seen, if not, U turn immediately tmr. 2nd scenario not so likely because all the lines don't show signs of reaching min. yet. What I think is that %K line will go slightly below, show a convincing turn from its downtrend and pull the %D lines up from there. Might need a few days to see this happening.

5. RSI not clear yet. What is clear is that RSI is going flat. At least its not going downtrend already because it had completed the "higher lows" of the trough and peak theory.

Conclusion: Longcheer is about to reverse its downtrend, should expect it to happen in next 4 trading sessions (to be conservative), baring any unforeseen circumstances. Most likely tmr will see a weak drop because most of the indicators are showing signs of that. If not, it will cheong and breach the trendline, probably hitting a high of 1.34 in 4 market days (not likely).

A very good time to start accumulating in small amounts now to anticipate the uptrend which can happen anytime soon. For me, I'm stuck in some warrants, sigh...

Dow positive as of now, hope and hope and hope it'll close positive. Then tmr will have less reasons for hsi to plunge. Good luck to me!

Why could'nt I cut losses?? TR: neg $2,850

Hmm, wonder what's wrong with hsi.

In the morning, evryone is rushing to buy call warrants. The price shot up even before hsi opens. But within a few minutes of market opening, it crashed down and never really recovered.

I bought 15 lots at 0.665 and another 15 lots at 0.660 before hsi opens. If I sold off before it opened, i'll have made a good profit. Greed greed greed is the downfall of many, including me. I thought hsi would stand a good chance to recover from yesterday's fall but nope, it fell even another 130 points.

This caught me by surprise. Everywhere in the world, almost all the markets are positive, including those in asia pacific and europe. But just not hsi. Hsi seems to diverge from the rest of the bourses and this is why I'm surprised by this sudden turn of move.

Another thing is my cut loss. I thought i was disciplined, but I think I got a million years more to learn about cutting losses promptly. Haven't I realised that if i cut losses promptly, I wouldn't even incur that hefty 18k losses last year? I wouldn't have incurred a 2k loss today too. One of my heaviest losses in warrants, i must say.

I thought about cutting losses later but waited the whole day, and not find a good opportunity to do so. I decided to keep it overnight. I seldom do this but I think it's quite a good rewards/risk.

1. Dow futures +34 as of now. It's nothing to take note because at most this means dow will open positive. Closing price is more impt.

2. Looking at europe and japan, they all closed +ve. This could be a better indicator of dow tonight to close positive.

3. I am hoping some of the enthusiasm of China life A listing in shanghai would rub onto hsi tmr

4. Hsi closed negative for 2 consecutive days already, knocking down nearly 400 points off roughly. So tmr should be a good probability of a technical rebound. Cannot everyday fall right, not in a bear market yet lah.

I'm also quite pleased to see a surge of pple buying the warrants nearing closing time. It drove the price up by 3 to 4 ticks. Could be anticipating a gap up tmr.

If all that i said didn't come true, esp if dow closed negative and nikkei too,I'll sell before hsi opens. I will have around 1 hour to do so. CUT LOSSES PROMPTLY!

Somehow I'm not very worried about holding this warrant overnight. Dunno why. Had prior experience, almost can't sleep, but not this time.

Longcheer went below support of 1.20 to reach intraday low of 1.18. But bounced back to 1.22. If looking at the closing price, i would say longcheer's day of decline is over. This fits into my analysis of an exhaustion gap before it rises again. Will be doing more analysis tonight. Tmr should be looking at either a slight fall if not a rebound to breach the dynamic support level provided by ema20 days.

Blog more later.

Total returns for the day: negative $2,850

Monday, January 08, 2007

My amateurish longcheer analysis

This is my attempt at predicting price movement. Pls don't attempt to follow this, caveat emptor!


Longcheer is going to touch the bottom channel trendline. This trendline happens to be the ema20 days and it had been tested 3 times as shown in the chart. SO, it should be a significant dynamic support line and I believe it should hold. A possible alternative is that it might go slightly below and whip back up on what is known as an exhaustion gap. Both will still be a bullish sign.

Longcheer's most recent price decline is followed by low volume, so it's a good sign. Why? It means that sellers are not in full force, because if they are, the price decline will be followed by substantial volume. This decline is probably due to lack of buyers.

MACD...not good in this but i'll try. Looks like more downside to come as the MACD is crossing down the signal line. But if you look closely, signal line is reversing its downtrend. A likely scenario is that MACD will hit signal line and bounce up from there. Momentum chart is the same analysis as MACD.

Stochastic don't look good, more downside it seems. %K line slowing down its downtrend but still far below %D. Looking at the past, %K line will likely hit 20% support line and rebound, but there's still some distance to go before hitting 20%. A much more likely scenario would be the exhaustion gap I mentioned earlier instead of the rebounding off ema20.

RSI is more vague. Half a reversal signal is shown. A reversal to the uptrend is shown by higher highs and high lows, so looking at the chart, it seems there is a new but higher low in the making. If rsi goes up from there and shoot above the peak, it will validate the signal.


Loncheer have more upside to come. Tmr is a decisive day to see if the scenario is an exhaustion gap or a rebound off the support line. If you have good risk appetite, buy now. If not, can wait (like me) for double, triple confirmation before buying.

Total returns: negative $520, made 500 on put warrants

Later in the afternoon, I went in for another trade. This whole day, I've been buying puts and not calls because I feel that the general direction of hsi today is down.

I bought and sold my put warrant in less than 10 mins to earn around $70 more. The money is not the point, the experience and confidence gained in following your analysis is the ultimate gain. Let's look at the reasons for the trade:

1. I bought at the blue arrow. At that time, ema finished its peak and is going downtrend from there. Furthermore, hsi price went below ema trend line, which is a bearish sign

2. Looking at stochastics, the %K line and the %D line had peaked and had gone down. It would be better to buy a few min earlier when they are at their peaks, but as I've said, today i'm not in a mood for aggressive trading. So, I waited for the downtrend to confirm before jumping into the trade. The downtrend in stochastics is confirmed decisively by the steep gradient, which means it's not likely to rebound. Notice %K is below the %D line, another bearish sign.

3. RSI had recently peaked. As in stochastics, it would be a better idea to buy puts at the peak but I would wait for confirmation before trading (for today, haha!). Confirmation is by the fact that rsi trends down (steep gradient somemore) and doesn't show sign of reaching its minimum and U-turning.

4. This short interval of time presents one of the best opportunity to buy puts because all the signs points that hsi will go down. RSI trends down, stochastic trends down, %K below %D, ema reached peak and turning down, price below ema. The probability of failure in this trade is actually very low. I jumped in with 20 lots straight.

The problem comes with my selling. I was bugged by the fact that dbs website is not stable, so rather than wait for the correct sell signal, I jumped the gun and sold sooner than I would have in better environment (connection wise). If you notice, I sold immediately when %K rises a bit from its minimum, and rsi rises a bit while on is downtrend. More imptly, I looked at the hsi price. The price is almost going to test the ema trendline (which acts as a moving resistance). The gear ratio of my puts is low, so rather than risk more downside to hsi price, I sold off my position and ended my trade there and then. It later rose up to 0.295, BUT I thought I took a good analysis of my rewards/risk and concluded its not worth the effort. No regrets there even if my puts price rose further.

After my expensive 1.6k lesson last week, I was in a better mental state. I'm very cautious, looking for confirmation after confirmation before trading. I keep taking stock of my mental state before I go into a trade: am i tired, desperate to make more money, crazy?

Analysing today's charts, I drew an important conclusion. The best time to make the trades would be the green arrows A, B and C. These represent a very strong probability that hsi price would go downhill (which it did), for reasons I mentioned earlier. I did wanted to get into puts at C but again dbs froze and I waited for like a min or 2 before deciding it's not worth it anymore. Opportunities to buy, if passed, will come again and there's no need to fulfill a trade because the situation would have changed in a matter of seconds for warrant trading.

All in all, an excellent trading day in terms of learning value. I earned $500 today in warrants. Overall, longcheer fell (which I think is good so as to touch the support line and fly from there) and dragged down my earnings a fair bit. Pac andes fell too. Yellow page went mad and jumped 0.070 to 1.38. Utterly crazy!

Total returns: negative $520

I heard tmr china insurance is listing on hsi. Should be having a strong rebound tmr. STI should rebound back after dropping 30 points to a nice 3000.00 today. Dow futures is positive. Call warrants, anybody?

New stuff: charts reference!!

I learnt from my lesson last week. This time I'm going to be even more serious in my postings, in order to benefit fully from writing this blog. I've downloaded a free screen capture software and I'm going to post down the screenshots of the charts I used so as to act as a future reference for my trading. This is also to understand better why I did the trades.

Since dow closed negative 80 last fri and nikkei is on holiday, I bet that hsi will open negative. This is knee jerk reaction from dow selldown. SO, before market for hsi opened, I bought put warrants for hsi. True enough, hsi fell sharply. But you know what? DBS HUNG UP ON ME AGAIN!! This time it's so serious that I can't even log in for around 15 to 30 minutes!

Goodness...luckily my put warrant had low gearing, otherwise I would have been killed there and then. It went up to a high of 0.32 before hsi rises up. Sigh, otherwise would have made close to 900 in the morning. Too bad, shit happens.

I placed several bids to sell off at 0.310, 0.305 and 0.300, before settling for 0.305 at 12 noon. The reasons for my selling can be seen from the chart:

1. Stochastic oscilator %K is finishing its minimum curve and is going to reverse. In my aggressive and risk taking mode, I'll wait a little more before I sell. However, the put warrant I've got don't react to minute changes in hsi, so I thought the rewards of waiting for another tick up is not worth the risk if it suddenly cheong upwards after %K reverses trend.

2. RSI also undergoing reversal, almost finishing the minimum curve

3. HSI price seems to have more downside, but I believe in charts more than the actual price, so there.

4. Quotes for selling is around 0.30/0.305, with the next bid up at 0.310. I tried one whole morning to sell at 0.310 but failed. I'm in a risk averse mode, so I thought I'll bid at the next bid at 0.305 and get out. Furthermore, if the website is down again, I'll be screwed big time. God knows what will happen in the afternoon.

So I sold off. The price never hit 0.305 again, so I'm glad I sold off at the high around that time. I'll decide whether to go in again in the afternoon. HSI is getting very unpredictable.

Yellow page cheong again, crazy stock. Is there really something going on? I hope longcheer will fall a bit today to hit the ema 20 days support line, so it can really cheong all the way up to cover the gap at 1.37. Will see how it goes later.

So far made $440 on warrants. Total returns at lunchtime: negative $190

Saturday, January 06, 2007

Earnings nosedived to negative $620

Okay, bad trading day extends over to dow too. It is now around -80 plus. I hope hsi direction would be clearer on monday. I hope it's a day for put warrants.

Reflecting on the afternoon's episode, I think I'm getting greedy. There are chances where I could have cashed in on my warrants and earn some money, but I kept thinking just one tick more. This is irrational. Next time, I'll try not to be greedy, it's just something that I have to fight back everytime.

Most important of all, do not put more money when the bet is wrong. JUST CUT LOSSES! It's so easy to say but so difficult to follow. CUT LOSSES, CUT LOSSES before they snowball! Must learn to take the pain of cutting losses. This calls for a lot of discipline.

Yellow page seems to have gone mad. For the past couple of days it has been rising up. I wonder what's the big accumulation of yellow page for? Pac Andes expectedly went up because its subsidiary china fish acquired more and more fishing supertrawlers. Longcheer went down further. But knowing longcheer characteristics, I'll say it's normal. This stock has a habit of cheonging when nobody's expecting for 1 day, then fall again before repeating. I think it have to cover the gap before it can cheong again since it gaped to 1.37. So, I think it still has some more distance to go before the gap is covered. The highest point reached recently is only 1.35. 1.37 should be the resistance to overcome.

My total returns nosedived: -$620
(due to my stupid warrant episode..and the spiraling down of longcheer)

I'll reflect on the trading i've done for this week, perhaps tmr or sunday.

Friday, January 05, 2007

Very very bad day

Bad trading day.

Could have earned 100 plus dollars and ran away feeling happy, but I traded more and lost even more. Sigh...

1. Buy 10 lots at 0.675
2. Sell 10 lots at 0.695

3. Buy 5 lots at 0.67
4. Buy 5 lots at 0.68
5. Sell 10 lots at 0.67

6. sell 15 lots at 0.705
7. Sell 10 lots at 0.710
8. Sell 10 lots at 0.725
9. Buy 25 lots at 0.75
10. Buy 10 lots at 0.755

It's so painful to type this out.. I could have made some money on trade 1 and 2 alone and leave but no, I acted out of character today. What's worse was trade 6 to 9. I don't even remembered pressing it!! Maybe the computer cock up my orders or something. When I saw the trade I was really panicking, because firstly, hsi was cheonging up while I'm shorting the call warrants. Next, my buy limit cannot allow me to cover my naked shorts and time is running out. If I don't buy back, sgx will buy me for me 3 days later, which might result in catastrophic losses. I'll rather do whatever I can to buy now at a loss that I know rather than wait 3 days for the unknown.

I had to frantically call dbs help line to raise my limits but I think they tried to earn some extra commission because they have to let a broker do the buy back for me. It's another extra 0.10% on top of the 0.28% commission. I said okay resignedly. Small price to pay to stop my losses.

Crazy shit...what kind of mental state am I in today? Tired (didn't had my afternoon nap, woke up early for work, didn't sleep well last night) is the first thing that came into my mind. Bad state to trade...hiaz..

So how much did I lose on the warrants? 1.6k (i overestimate it to include the extra commission charge, probably lesser than this). Totally wiped off all the meagre amount of money that I earn the last 2 days. This is my first loss of the new year, well, I deserved it.

Longcheer didn't do good today either. Dropped 0.030, dragged my profits down somemore. Total returns as of now: -$400. Nevermind, I'll get my tip top mental state back and recover everything again. I shall not be broken by this minor setback.


Thursday, January 04, 2007

Total returns for a bad selloff day: $1,470

A correction that is due had arrived.

As I type, dow was down 60 points. Tmr should be another red red day I suppose, unless dow wants to make a U-turn in the middle of the night again? A correction now is better than rising all the way and crash down hard.

My stocks got battered hard. Haha, what rose up quickly also fell down quick, like longcheer. Yesterday it was up by 0.060, today it closed down 0.030. Shake off some weak holders to prepare for the real surge, I hope.

Yellow page is a big surprise though. Rose up by 0.040. Really something fishy going on, because yellow pages usually nobody would touch it, in bear raid or bull run. But now, it kept cheonging. Good for me, though for this stock, it's still a -30% loss, haha. Luckily only 1 lot, won't die.

Total returns: $1,470

(considering today is a big selloff day, my stocks didn't drop all that bad, only longcheer drop mildly today. I'm so glad that I sold off all the laggards that didn't rise during the bull's run. Now the bull ran away, they dropped a lot and could have dragged down by portfolio tremendously.)

Close shave for warrants...made $130

Had a close shave today..phew

What a suprise that dow closed only +11. When I slept, it was still hovering around 100 points. A turn of events when fed released their minutes. Hmm... It turns out to be a red red day, except nikkei. STI dropped substantially, almost all the stocks in my watchlist are all negative. My holding stocks included. Longcheer reached skyhigh to 1.35 before falling to the present 1.28. Only one that stayed the same is yellow pages. Not suprisingly, because yellow page is not active too when the bull runs.

The close shave was to do with my warrant trading.

Trade 1: Buy 10 lots at 0.805
Trade 2: Sell 10 lots at 0.820

Trade 3: Sell 10 lots at 0.830
Trade 4: Buy 10 lots at 0.810

Trade 5: Buy 10 lots at 0.735
Trade 6: Sell 10 lots at 0.73

Trade 1 and 2 was the standard buy first, then sell. Trade 3 and 4 was the unusual naked short. What I did was to sell 10 lots at 0.83 first, then go on to buy back (cover back) 10 lots at 0.810. This is the first time I did naked short successful. Previously, it was 100% failure rate. Not too bad eh?

TAKE NOTE: Naked short actually reduces your trading limit for buy and sell by the amount you traded. I didn't know that and it caught me off guard. It resulted in me unable to average down to catch the bottom, nearly did me in today.

The close shave was trade 5 and 6. If you notice, I mistook a signal to buy and went in to buy 10 lots at 0.735. However, the price nosedived sharply. I should have known not to buy! I was already decided to quit for the day but I was tempted to go back in. I had to pay the price for this lack of discipline. Luckily it rebounded slighly back up for me to sell off at a slight loss. Murphy's law happened...dbs hung up on me! I had to spend the next few minutes frantically hoping that I can still sell before it nosedive another round. Luckily all went well and I managed to cut my loss for trade 5 before it got worse. (It did got worse, now hsi dropped 400 points - if i'm still holding my call warrant, bye bye)

Looking at how hsi jumped down really frightens me. Better not get cocky next time and stick to my plans! Had enough for today, not going to trade anymore, for sure! Made a bit from my warrants, $130. Could have made a 100 more, if not for trade 5 and 6. But that's the fee for not being disciplined.

Even as I type, longcheer is spiralling down. But I have no fear for it, cos I heard some fund houses buying longcheer. Married deal at 1.28. So the closing of longcheer today should be somewhere around there.

A very very red sea everywhere. Dow futures is flat, after losing a slight gain just now. Could the inevitable be here now? Somehow, I still don't think so.

I'll update my total returns later tonight, as of now, it's $1,210 (due solely on longcheer losing 0.040)

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Total returns: $1,920

Wow, sti closed at +52 points, a really roaring start to a new year!

I wonder how sti would fare tmr. More imptly, how would hsi fare tmr? Tmr shanghai, shenzhen, nikkei would open, together with dow tonight (so far +70), so I hope it'll cheong even higher tmr. I'll be home to check out the action till afternoon.

Excellent showing by longcheer made my portfolio gained massively for this first trading day of the year. Longcheer gained 0.060, and I hope it'll carry on the momentum. Short term charts is very positive, showing more upside to come. Pac andes too, short term looks good.

Heard some big boys are accumulating defensives stocks like the yellow pages that I'm holding. Usually pple flock to defensive stocks because market is peaking, so I'll be looking closely. Though some forummers said that yellow page is aggressively seeking new plans for advertisements. We'll see how.

Total returns for today: $1,920

Earned $140 from warrants : )

I didn't follow what I said last night when I wrote that I won't be trading today. The feeling was just too strong to ignore. So, before I went to work, I just bought half my usual size of call warrants and hope for the best.

When I came back, it was slightly negative. Could have made around 700 if I'm around. Sigh, days like these made me think if it's worthwhile to earn $70 in 3 hrs (for work) compared to $700 in just one morning. I stil love my job, but knowing that you could be out there having an easier life earning more money makes me think twice.

After lunch, hsi went downhill but I wasn't that worried. I can't explain why. I was quite confident that it'll rise up so I bought another half of my usual size of warrants to average down, with my average buying price coming down close to the price at that time. This is impt because if you're sure of the direction, average can help you turn a losing trade to a winning trade. The key word here is : "if you're sure".

Using my super doper spreadsheet, I calculate my profits to be $140. Nearing 330pm, I wanted to enter but the stochastics was at the middle, not right at the bottom, which is my usual buy signal. Didn't think that it was worth the risk to enter, especially when hsi would close at 4pm, and I don't want to hold overnight. After fighting the temptation to enter again, I once-and-for-all decided not to enter. Just not worth it to risk what i've earned for what I could have earn. SO, that's all the trading I've done today.

On the whole, the market is crazy! STi shot up 30+ points at this point in time, shows no sign of weakness yet. However, HSI didn't surge up as strong as yesterday. Cheong too much, I think. Today, I saw a lot of stocks increase their price by 0.5 (wilmar), reminds me of last year's may. I rememebered seeing all these great increase in price (and wondering why my stock wasn't like those). Ominous signs indeed. What's more? All the top 10 vol stocks are held by penny, a sure sign of a bull's run end. I'll be pretty cautious at this point in time and will be looking to sell my stocks. I definitely won't be adding anymore, no matter how much they cheong. I've learnt my lessons well. So, this month and next, I'll be doing intraday trading. Holding anything overnight is a big nono, unless circumstances change.

Since sti touches 3030 now, probably might rise a little more before correction. Time will tell if this correction will herald the coming of the bear, but somehow I don't think so yet. Reporting season will be coming up in feb, that'll be an excellent excuse to take profit. And when everyone does that, the inevitable big crash will come. Alright, enough of doomsday prediction.

All my holding stocks went crazy today. Pac andes went up by 0.035, yellow page went up 0.03, and my precious longcheer went up by 0.04 as I'm typing this. In this bull run, if your stock is stagnant and not moving up, or even going down, you got to seriously examine your portfolio. I remembered this lesson clearly in May when my stocks just hover around the same price. It's these laggards that will kill you when the market crashes. In a bull run, if these laggards won't cheong, what will happen when a bear raids?

Of the stocks I'm holding now, I'm thinking of letting go of yellow page. This stock shows the least potential for future growth (when's the last time you ever flip yellow pages for help?). I'll check the charts tonight to look for a good time.

Half an hour to market's close, total earnings: $1,730

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Total returns for new year 2007 : $420

Had a wonderful new year!

So wonderful that I'm slightly flu-ish from too many outings and parties. However, I managed to do some wonderful stuff to my spreadsheet for my stock portfolio.

First of all, I revamped the entire formula calculator to make it more efficient in calculating. Now, it's much easier and faster to get the bottom line profit/loss. In the midst of doing this, I also found out that I miscalculated some of the buying charge and sell charge of my holdings stocks and did the corrections. It's not much, thankfully, otherwise would have affected my profits. I also deducted the dividends of the stocks that I'm still holding since last year, and add it to the portfolio of the year 2007.

The best thing that I did today was to incorporate an intra-day warrants trading calculator. Though it's mainly used (for me, at least) for calculatiing the consolidated commission if you trade a particular warrant many times a day, it can also be used to calculate other stocks. I believe this nifty little program can help me shorten the adminstrative and lots of detective work after they send me the contra statement saying my gains and losses. I had this problem last year whenever I had multiple trades of a particular warrants for a day because dbs vickers would consolidate all the buying and selling price and calculate the commission from there. It think now the problem would be reduced if not totally eliminated. I'm so excited that this program would save me lots of trouble double checking my statements!

I changed the formula in the spreadsheet by putting in a max/min function when calculating the buying and selling charge of stocks. Last year, I had to physically compare which buying charge is the most and which selling charge is the least, then keying in the right charges to calculate my profit/losses. Now, the new formula will reflect this and choose the correct amount for the calculation of profit and loss. Very nice!

There's a discrepancies in commission because dbs charges 0.28% for internet trading (for trading less than 50k), subjected to a minimum of $25 commission. Sometimes if the amount of shares I buy is lesser, the commission would be just $25. But if I buy a lot of shares, then I would have to calculate the 0.28%. Now it's all settled easily in my revamped spreadsheet.

After testing it in a couple of trades that I executed last year, I'm convinced that my program is bug-free and I'm ready to put it out to work when I start trading this week.

HSI rose 320 points. Wonderful start to a new year, haha! I might not be able to trade tmr as I have work in the morning. It's okay, I'll take it easy this week. Oh ya, I resetted my past earnings for this new year and what I have for my total returns will now be based on the stocks I'm holding and future transactions from this point onwards.

The wise said, "The market is always there, you don't have to trade everyday". This is very very impt, so take note!

Total returns for 2006 (minus dividends and paper wins so as to carry over to 2007)
= $3,500
Total returns for 2007 (added last year dividend for the stocks I'm holding and paper wins)
= $420