Wednesday, June 27, 2007

STI bounce off ema50 stop 3450

Wow...STI touching ema50 days at 3490 and rebounded, with higher volume than yesterday. This is after Dow's drop again last night. Late recovery today made it go past 3500 mark to close at 3505.

Is the selling done? Hard to say. Based on TA, I can say it's nearly done. Next support level at 3450. Anything lower than that level and we'll have another fresh round of downturn. But I don't see it happening. STI been dropping for 4 consecutive sessions already, should see some buyers stepping in for some bargains. The big bargains are the banks and property stocks...when is the last time you saw Capitaland at 7.50? It was in march...Maybe can look into their warrants for the banks and property stocks.

Tmr we shall see CSC adding another 13,148,423 shares into the market. This is due to the exercise of the convertible notes on 25 June. Sian loh, another dilution to existing share holders. Most of it might already been factored in already, since they made the announcement all the way from last March to the more recent June period. I should expect CSC not to fall too back behind. Perhaps weak holders will sell out, but we shall see. Support at 0.385, and I REALLY hope it won't come to that.

Swiber is as expected, the share placement will exert short term selling pressure. Today it dropped 0.040 to close at 2.250. Share placement price is at 2.17 so we should see more selling this week. The good thing is that the selling today is with low volume, so shouldn't be too concerned that the big boys (BB) are selling.

Pac andes continue dropping. Initially wanted to buy the rights traded at open market today since it's selling at less than 0.52, which is the offer price for the rights. But after thinking why nobody is buying, I found out in the previous post the reason. Ahh...enlightenment :) I never really mentioned the implication of it...

It just means that we can treat the rights like warrants. Do short term trading. Maybe can do shorting and covering back on the same day, if you believe pac andes have more downside.

Pac andes is touching ema50 days already. Good support level can be found at 0.87, which offers an excellent bargain for long term holders. I'm really tempted to queue today at 0.89 already, but i stopped myself. See the rate meeting over at US side over the next 2 days first.

Yongnam again amazes me...rises up to a high of 0.465 before closing up 0.020 at 0.460. A good thing I bought 5 lots at 0.435...pure luck, not skill, I admit. I just did a chart on yongnam, decided it had enough evidence to be an ascending triangle, observe for one day, then enter the next at breakout level of 0.435. There is rumors flying around that yongnam rise today and yesterday is about pending announcement of contract won (maybe middle east or IR related).

Here's the extract:


0658 GMT [Dow Jones] Yongnam (Y02.SG) +2.3% at S$0.45 on very heavy volume, sparking further speculation it''ll announce big contract win in coming days. Company reported to be in line for casino resort, sports hub contracts in Singapore, with steelwork required for these projects thought to be worth over S$500 million. CIMB says "Yongnam's forays into the Middle East are paying off, and likely projects would include the Dubai Metro, Doha airport and Qatar World Trade Centre;" combined, these projects estimated to be worth over S$250 million. Stock capped at S$0.50, with share price bucking downtrend on broader market; company not immediately available to comment. (JEM)

Not to mention don't forget about the Springleaf Tower case which the results will likely be announced in early July and is looking favourable for YN to win the case. This will add another $10-$15 million to the bottom line and possibly another $5 million + after revaluation I believe. This has not been factored into the tp yet and would reflect in the price if YN wins the case.

Let's wait for the good news to come. Oh, in case your memory fails you, yongnam did a share placement exercise too not too long ago. After everything sinks in, the prices still rose don't give up on Swiber and Pac andes and CSC!!

I look here look there, seems like every other stock is touching ema 20 days (if not ema 50 days). A good sign actually, because valuations are sky high already, so a drop now and then brings everything back to reality. A drop here and then defuses a time bomb or bubble from forming, this will prevent an even greater drop in the future. So don't give up, when the worst happens, days can only get better and better!

Dow at -34 now, europe all red.

Oh, I received the offer statement to subscribe to my rights issue for Pac andes. Enclosed is a thick offer statement document which had lots of infomation inside. I think I'll bring it to Batam with me to read through. Yeah, going over there from Fri to Sunday, so not going to be around should there be contracts announcement for IR this Fri (hahah, wishful thinking again!)

After I read through this, i'll post some stuff about it. Musicwhiz blog contains a wealth of information, esp regarding some common stocks that we own (swiber and pac andes). The link is posted on the left under the "blogs" heading. Let's hear what he have to comment after he read through the offer statement too, can learn from him :)