Thursday, June 07, 2007

Watch out for Dow...hope it stay stable and above 13,440!!

What a good showing by STI! In the morning, it was down like 30 over pts, dangerously close to support level. But by mid morning till closing, it rose and rose, eventually closing at -17 pts. This is the weird part: there's more gainers than losers!

From my watchlist, I saw so many breakouts from high...a bit crazy huh? Cosco is one crazy horse, rallying up 0.210 to close at 2.96! think I had no confidence in this when it was around 2.6 something. Swiber too, rallied up 0.080, continuing its 3rd consecutive mega rise in price. Not to mention Pac andes, close up 0.050 at end at 1.340 at all time high.

I guess this was helped mainly by strong Shanghai bourse, which closed +114 pts after several days of drop. I guess US is experiencing delayed effect from China's drop. I won't be so happy for STI yet. It did rebound off ema20 days though. Must see it cross 3560 first before I think it'll be safe. All depends on Dow actually.

Dow is flirting around support level of 13,440, currently at 13,439.75. Quite stable at that price, looks like support is holding for now. See how it closes.

A bit more analysis:

Pac Andes had a flag target of 1.30/1.31. It undergo a long base building (consolidation) zone since April till recently, before breakout out and fulfilling the flag target. A good time to enter pac andes again will be after it retrace back to support around 1.22. Looks like there's more upside due to the rights issue. Other indicators also support this. Because it broke out of consolidation zone from weekly charts too, the movement will be strong and longer lasting than a daily one. More upside to come.

Swiber tested ema50 day support and rebounded strongly, even going past ema20 days. A strong sign. I think it will exceed $2 resistance by next week. I'm holding on this for longer term, so far giving me excellent returns. Stochastics and macd seem to support further upside.

All the rest of my stock are holding very well. I see a new trend in my portfolio. Firstly, my stocks turnover gets longer and longer, meaning that I hold each stock for a much longer period of time, compared to last time where it was less than 2 weeks (more like 3 days contra period). The second thing is compared to last time where I was always fighting for 1% to 2% returns, I'm not looking at least 10% returns (to beat all the risk of putting it in stocks instead of treasury bills and to beat inflation). My best returns of the stocks I'm stilling holding is Pac Andes (58%), followed by Swiber (46%), then Strait asia (18%). My worst loss is one of the first stock I held since last May - Yellow page (-22%) and 1 lot only, hahah!

If there's anything I learnt from reading intelligent investor, it must be to hold for longer periods of time and the courage to buy when everyone is selling. I'm still not in buying mood now (holding too many stocks) and consistently looking to sell rather than to buy. Might have to wait a little longer (mid July) to clear up some construction stocks i've been holding.

Really hope to see my losses reduced to less than 20k. Now hovering around 20.3k from a high of 30 k losses... haha, laugh it off :) My current portfolio of stocks is 7.4k gains, but of course after minu-sing off my stupid losses...still lose 20.3k.