Monday, April 30, 2007

Reflections on my past year of trading

It's been 1 yr and 1 month since I started trading in stock markets.

Overall, it's been a humbling experience. You learn about life faster through the stock market. You realise that when you're high up, you shouldn't be too smug and arrogant, because when you're up so high, you're oh-so likely to go down. When you're down in the dumps, don't worry so much, because if you're at the bottom, you can't go anywhere but up. Life's a series of cycles, constantly moving between up and down - very similar to technical oscillators for stocks.

I started buying my first share on 27th-March, 2006. It was Fibrochem Tech. I was quite naive then, because I know almost nothing about stocks and I bought 1 lot to try out. I believe you will learn things the hard way, no textbook and no mentor could teach you faster than if you dabble in it yourself. If nothing can kill me then, nothing probably will.

I was wrong. Without FA or TA, I can only rely on BA - broker's analysis. I bought stocks because certain brokerage house recommend it. I was SO WRONG. I learnt an important lesson - don't buy because brokerage houses recommend. I started reading up vastly on stock selection and the inevitable technical analysis. But I wasn't consistent and the reading up on theories doesn't really explain all the numbers and action I was seeing on my watchlist.

Without doubt, I paid my first tuition fee to the market - 18 k (paper loss + actual loss). I started recovering and I did recovered too fast by doing warrants. Imagine, trading warrants recovered most of my 18k, and I didn't know nuts about what are warrants and how to select them and all the technicals. It was AFTER I started in warrants then I knew how to look at technicals seriously. I started to link news event to stock market. I started to experience what is means to cut loss and the consequences of not cutting.

I did earn back all my losses plus an additional 3.5k last year. But I lost all and more this year because finally, warrants trading without knowledge wiped off my portfolio gains. Ouch.

As of now, I'm still in the process of recovering my 22.6k losses. It was 30k at the height of my folly but I reduced it substantially. The losses this time is much different from last year because the majority of my 22.6 k losses are actual losses. It just means I have more work to do and a longer time to recover them.

I'm really looking forward to the day that I can write here in this blog, that I've finally wiped off all my losses! Hopefully when that day comes, I'll be much wiser. Let me go through all this, it'll only strengthen me.

A million thanks to people who supported me when I'm not feeling the most happy, another million thanks to people who helped me along this journey of self discovery in the stock market.

Labour day's market....boring

HSI didn't close positive.

I was told that HSI follow Dow more closely than it follows Shanghai, even though it should have more correlation with Shanghai because of its ties.

Oh well, bumber. Shouldn't have touched warrants..sianz... Anyway, still holding on. I won't sell this week unless something really bad happens. I'll probably wait till next week when the majority of markets world wide is open. I'm not sure if HK opens on Wed, but I'm pretty sure China market is closed for the entire of this week, hence the 'golden week'.

Minus my warrants, the stocks are holding pretty well against the downturn of STI. As I posted last week, the most that STI would go should be 3290, though it would be range trading up and down. But i'm not holding any index stocks, so it shouldn't affect me so much.

Construction stocks rallied briefly. I though I could accumulate more yongnam when it threatened to break 0.330 downwards...but it rallied up to close at 0.35. CSC too, close 0.015 up at 0.315. Swiber is holding strong, waiting for it to bottom out before considering to add more.

Cosco reports 12% increase in quarterly profits. Don't know if it's good or bad, but cosco actually closed down. Seems like this stock always up on rumors and down on news.

Europe mostly green, dow now at +9

Have a great labour day!

HSI intraday watch

HSI crash quite a bit today, with me still holding onto its warrants...sianz..

China raised the reserve ratio for banks to drain liquidity because of the excellent Q1 growth of 11% (i think so). They didn't increase interest rates, so it would be taken as a soft measure to curb growth.

Accordingly, Shanghai bourse is up 1.18% (+44 pts). I wonder why HK is not following. Hit and go below support of 20200, then rebounded now. Hopefully can clear resistance at 20350 before we can see it breaking the downtrend. Long term trend is still intact. It's just a matter of when it'll reach 21,000. Hopefully by next week? haha, wishful thinking

Remembering (Se souvenir)

Friday, April 27, 2007

Dow intraday analysis (opening & closing)

Never mind about STI, another time, another day. Quite a bad day for me, sianz..

Let's focus on Dow intraday analysis.

Again we see a triangle formation. Dow jones will trade within the triangle until it breaks out of it. However, unlike the last time I did an intraday analysis on Dow, this time the triangle is symmetrical. This means it have equal chance of breaking upwards or downwards. Hard to say which one by looking at it alone.

I have really no idea which side it will break out. Let's make a guess, it'll break out around 1:30pm. Looking at 20 min EMA, seems like it is well supported at 13,100 level. I guess it'll break down on the downside since the high is getting lower each time, though we didn't see the lows getting lower, haha!

We'll see how it goes. So far, Dow +0.16 now.

15 mins later

Wow...faster than I thought. Obviously the theory that the breakout will occur at the point where the top and bottom trend intersect is false. It can happen anytime before the intersection.

It breaks out on the topside of the symmetrical triangle. But volume seems to be decreasing, so it is not convincing for me. Might see it go down later, who knows. But 13,100 level is tested twice for 20 ema, so should act as strong support. I think it's a double bottom formation for ema, a bullish reversal sign.

Cheong ah, DOW JONES!

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Boring trading day

Sianz... My stocks very funny one. If market crash, they tend to do better. Esp Swiber. Swiber goes up when general market is down, but goes down when general market is up.

This is the trades I've done today:
Bought 5 lots of SP Chemicals at 1.37 due to breakaway gap on news of very good quarter earnings.
Sold at 1.35 because sell pressure is too high. Huge blockup at 1.37,1.38 so I cut loss.
Bought H40W hsi call warrant, 5 lots at 0.585 because Dow broke 13,000 and Nikkei is very strong.
Went up to 0.645, didn't sell, when I came back dropped to 0.575, still holding.

Sold Ausgroup at 0.895 because selling pressure is high. Once I detect weakness, I protect my profit and sold off first. Bought it yesterday at 0.830.

If only I took profit for hsi, sianz... Next time must remember not to be greedy. Today STI went to 3400, closing +44. But my watchlist and stocks don't feel that way. I guess a lot of people are taking profits. Not wrong of course.

Swiber went down 0.060. Selling strength getting stronger, but I'll hold on first because my average buy price (0.129) is really too far away. At most will just erode my profits a bit while swiber finds support. Will hold first.

All the constructions stocks took a beating. Yongnam and CSC, HUGE roadblock preventing them from moving up. These 2 I don't care now, because I'm holding for long. Still awaiting for news for award tender, which should be soon. I know Marina sands IR tender was submitted last week. Sentosa IR tender was submitted today. So, it will be anytime within 1 month? I'm just making some intelligent guesses.

Tomorrow Citic bank will dual list in HK and China. Dubbed as the biggest IPO launch this year, I think it will add lots of excitement to China and HK. I hope this sentiment will spill over to HSI. I'll try to get out tmr, before they go for their golden week 'labour day' long break.

Long time never do HSI. Resistance at 20,800. Support vaguely at 20,400. I bought around 20,650, aiming for 21,000. We'll see how dow performs tonight. Dow futures is strong at +37, with strong earnings from apple and exxon.

This is for learning purpose. Take a look at OSIM.

According to Joshings from Cna forum (copyright from Joshings from cna forum), this is a breakaway gap, with news of poor Q1 earnings from Osim. All the conditions are fulfilled. Unlike the breakaway gap like Ausgroup, this one breaks away on the down side. A good trading opportunity here is to short it.

A major movement is already predicted by me. This is due to bollinger band squeezing. The longer the squeeze, the greater the movement will be. Osim has been squeezed by the bands since march, for nearly 2 months till now. Therefore a great movement will be observed when it finally breaks out of the squeeze. Looking at MacD, a downside looks inevitable.

Truly a classic case of when to short.

The impt part is: there is no support for breakaway gaps. All support and resistance will be thrown off. The selling will continue until the buyers find it attractive enough to buy back.

Llengs, if you're reading this, do take note!!

Dow haven't open market yet. Europe is a sea of green.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

AUSGROUP - breakaway gap trading

Shit lah, never get any IPO shares for Foreland fabritech. I bidded 35 lots, still never get any. I heard the strategy is to bid 1 lot, because there's quite a number of cases where people actually bid 1 lot and get 1 lot! Almost like striking 4D. It's 21.4 times oversubscribed, sure open much higher than 0.21 cts IPO price...well too bad.

The good thing is that today I bought Ausgroup. After being informed by Joshings from cna forum (an excellent technician), I bought it straight away. Let's analyse the reasons for this purchase and why this stock rallied on and on. My phillip broker said that the trading floor is going 'wah' over ausgroup, haha!

I bought ausgroup because it had a breakaway gap. A common gap and breakaway gap is different because breakaway gap are gaps that will not be covered at least for a long time. Breakaway gaps are formed because of news/report (copyright from Joshings from cna forum). The best way to trade breakaway gaps is to buy in and ride the trend up until weakness sets in. No targets is set and all resistance/supports are thrown aside. Cut loss is set at 3 bids below the opening price. Using DBS vickers, which shows the MACD and stochastic charts up to the intraday price, I noticed a crossover of both macd and stochastic, with RSI trending upwards. More imptly, MACD is above the 0 line (VERY IMPT!) AND crossing over. Combining this with stochastisc crossover, it's a very strong buy signal.

(Thks joshings from cna forum for generously sharing this impt technical point which cannot be found in textbooks!)

I bought 5 lots at 0.830 to try and today it reached an intraday high of 0.92 before closing at 0.900. This is identified as a breakaway gap because ML, ever powerful ang mo brokerage house, initiated a buy call with tp of $1.10. The result is a huge rally up with 10 times normal volume! The last time ML issued call is on swiber, all cheong like mad too.

I need to analysis the sell signal too. Based on my rudimentary knowledge of flags, i spotted one begining at 28th March to 9th April (sorry, the charts read 9th aug, too lazy to change), with flag target of 0.950. Since the tp set by ML is $1.10, I will be looking to sell around 0.950. If tmr gaps up to that level, I'll sell and take profit first. I don't intend to hold ausgroup for long unless it gaps up so much that i can never buy back at the price I want. We'll see how dow performs tonight and decide in the morning. Might add more too.

FA wise, Ausgroup is very strong. It's doing engineering services with oil and gas, as well as mining related industries, with major customers as BHB billiton, Alcoa, BP, Chevron. ML reported that they are trading well below their peers, so it's undervalued (I don't understand why yet, still reading up!). Should have record earnings over the next few years. I know, all the oil stocks (including swiber) and offshore marine, oil rigs business is booming.

Swiber went up more today, +0.05 today to close at 1.90. Reached an intraday high of 1.93 too. But I can see the buying starts to show signs of weakness already. Have to retrace a bit, consolidate before the run up continues. Swiber is definitely the best buy for the year for me. It's been running up so far and haven't consolidate yet. Looks set to break $2, which I think will also be the resistance and the start of a pullback.

Heard osim makes 17.3 million loss in Q1. Bollinger band tightening with macd doing downtrend, means we are going to see some real big moves for osim, very very likely to be on the downside. Shortist target, for sure.

Dow is doing cha cha around 13,000. Now is +38. Europe mostly green.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Swiber rallied again!

STI hit 3360 before rebounding close to 3400 before closing down -13 today. Volume is rather low, half of average volume over the past couple of days. Down day with low volume is actually a good sign, which means this might just be a normal pullback after breaking record high.

Swiber went up as high as 1.90 before closing +0.110 at 1.850. This is on an interview with Swiber reporting that they are looking for partners to enter the middle east area within this year. Just last week they reported opening a branch at brunei to get more contracts for their group. Amazing management with expansionist ideas, I like it!

Offshore/marine sector seems to be the play today, with lots of counters breaking out of highs.

Another thing to note here might be the extradition treaty with indonesia was signed. That might mean that Indonesia resume the supply of sand and granite. Construction counters will surge if that news is confirmed. In the meantime, shorterm trend for CSC and yongnam is down. Such a huge queue to sell is blocking the advance of these counters. Anyway, since I'm going to hold for long, it doesn't matter.

I'm learning how to do FA now, to compliment my TA skills. Reading up on CANSLIM theory of stock selection. Eventually I'll progress to value investing. Learnt a lot about PE, PEG, and basically what to look out for in the financial report. When I'm a bit more free, I'll do a FA on Swiber because I just received their nice annual report last week. Just browsing through it, I liked it already. Their earnings per share increase 87% from 05' to 06', from 2.31 (US cts) to 4.31 (US cts). Phenomenal!

COSCO! Coming so close to my target to buy! There's this piece of news that they won some 338 million contract, so hopefully it won't cheong too high for me to accumulate. My support for cosco is 2.77/2.78, so I'll buy from there. Since market sentiment is not strong yet, I think i'll just buy small lots (<5) first, add more if it's okay.

April 30th is also Cosco's 1Q results.

Europe a sea of red. Dow at +8 now

Closing analysis of Dow jones intraday

This posting is just to close off my Dow analysis last night.

I saw a descending triangle formation last night before I went to sleep for intraday Dow jones. I knew that that probability of it breaking out of the triangle on the downside is higher than the upside, simply because it is a descending triangle where lower highs and lower lows are registered.

What I didn't expect to see is that even the timing of the breakout is sort of accurate. If you look at the previous triangle, the part where the uptrend and downtrend lines intersect, the time is around 1:30pm. If you look at the graph below, the breakout point is also around 1:30pm. This means that using a triangle formation, we might be able to predict the time for the breakout too? I'm not sure about this, because books don't mention this at all.

I think it's worthwhile to think about this. I'll try to get more information on this while practising on other charts too.

Anyway, dow broke out of the triangle, with expected large price movement. It closed at -42 pt without touching 13,000 psychological resistance.

STI red now, broke 3360, steadily heading south now. I don't expect to see those 100 points drop for now, it'll be more like -20/-30 points daily until buyers step in to bargain hunt.

As for longcheer, I think I made a correct decision to sell. During a bull phase, Longcheer didn't rally while others do. If during a bear phase, Longcheer will do worse. It really did. Longcheer is now at 0.680, compared to yesterday's closing of 0.695. I expect longcheer to drop until 0.66 before buyers step in.

I applied for Foreland fabri-tech IPO. Hope I can get some, it's very hot. It's almost like striking 4D. I bought 35 lots at offer price of $0.21, with an administrative charge of $1. Really like buying 4D. I think it opens on 26th April, with IPO closing at noon today.

Good trading!

Some thoughts on dow jones intraday

Just saw the dow intraday, and recognised some formation, so thought of sharing it here to practise too.

Joining the peaks and troughs, we can a triangle which is descending. I think this is a bearish formation because it achieves the most basic of trend analysis - lower highs and lower lows means downtrend, while higher highs and higher lows means uptrend. A descending triangle means a lower high is achieved with lower lows.

This kind of formation will mean that the index/stock will flunctuate up and down inside the triangle until it finally breaks out of it with huge price movement (can be either up or down). From the looks of it, a break to the downside seems more likely.

Actually this kind of formation is good for warrant trading intraday. I would buy near lower trendline and sell on upper trendline, cutting losses if breakout occurs.

Dow seems to be waiting for something to happen. Once it happens, it'll explode up or down, depending on the news.

Got to sleep already, good trading this morning at 9am!

Monday, April 23, 2007

Sold off longcheer

STI closed +27, but I wasn't happy with the closing.

Dow closed so strongly, and we did it so feebly. Nikkei and HSI shows very weak response too. That's a sign that I already predicted - positive closing on Monday, but subsequent drop for rest of the week.

STI is supported by stocks that are going to XD soon. I think without these counters, we would already have turned down. Weakness is detected throughout the counters on my watchlist and nothing seems to really move. When pennies start to occupy top volume, do be careful, because it means that the market is peaking.

I sold off 3/4 of my longcheer holdings today at 0.71, realizing my losses. I should have cut loss..too many should have. Anyway, it plunged to 0.695 after I sold. It's a good thing because I don't want my profits/loss to be too dominated by this counter. I sold today because of my analysis of STI and longcheer. STI is showing signs of reversal while longcheer never seems to pick up even though everyone is rallying. Imagine if the market turns down, longcheer will be even worse off. Longcheer weakly charts is really bad, with possible downside till 0.66. I'm not going to wait till it drops that low, so I sold off to release the tied up capital.

Yongnam doesn't look like it can push through the resistance 0.38. If it can't go up, it will go down. As I'm holding this stock for medium to long term, I won't consider selling off now to get like 20 profits off the table. Probably I'll pay up (contra period is up tmr) and buy more on dips.

Dow is +8 now, Europe a mix of green and red. Heard that amro bank (spelling?) is going to be taken over by barclays. Earning seasons for singapore stocks is going to hit us this week and next. Volatility expected.

Earnings release dates for this quarter

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Following is a list of the upcoming
release dates for the quarterly earnings of top Singapore-listed
companies. All dates are confirmed except those marked by an
asterisk (*), which means this was the date when the earnings
were released in 2005.

The first list sorts the companies by expected release date.
The second list sorts the companies by alphabet.
To submit a date, please mail:

Apr 10 Singapore Exchange Q3
Apr 12 Singapore Press Hldgs Q2
Apr 16 K-REIT Q1
Apr 18 SNP Corp Ltd Q1
Apr 18 Ascendas REIT Q4
Apr 20 CapitaMall Trust Management Q1
*Apr 20 Singapore Food Inds Q1
*Apr 20 Ascott Group Q1
Apr 23 Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT Q1
Apr 24 MobileOne Q1
Apr 24 Keppel T&T Q1
Apr 24 Singapore Petroleum Corp Q1
Apr 24 SMRT Corp Q4
Apr 25 Osim Int'l Q1
Apr 25 Keppel Land Q1
Apr 25 CapitaCommercial Trust Q1
Apr 25 Venture Corp Q1
Apr 26 Keppel Corp Q1
Apr 26 Mapletree Logistics Q1
Apr 26 Suntec REIT Q2
*Apr 26 United Test and Assembly Center Q1
Apr 27 Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Q1
Apr 27 CapitaLand Q1
Apr 27 Allgreen Properties Q1
Apr 27 Singapore Post Q4
*Apr 27 STATS ChipPac Q1
*Apr 28 United Industrial Corp Q1
*Apr 28 Del Monte Pacific Q1
*Apr 28 MCL Land Q1
*Apr 28 DBS Group Holdings Q1
Apr 30 Cosco Corp. (Singapore) Ltd. Q1
May 2 Singapore Technologies Engineering Q1
May 2 SembCorp Marine Q1
May 3 SembCorp Industries Q1
*May 3 Creative Technology Q3
*May 4 Singapore Telecommunications Q4
*May 8 STX Pan Ocean Q1
May 8 United Overseas Bank Q1
May 9 Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Q1
*May 9 Fortune REIT (reports in HK$) Q1
May 10 StarHub Q1
May 10 Noble Group Q1
*May 10 Great Eastern Holdings Q1
*May 10 Datacraft Asia Q2
*May 10 ComfortDelgro Q1
*May 10 Haw Par Corp Q1
*May 10 Jardine Cycle & Carriage Q1
May 11 Singapore Airlines Q4
May 11 SIA Engineering Q4
May 11 Singapore Airport Terminal Services Q4
*May 11 Fraser & Neave Q2
*May 11 Asia Pacific Breweries Q2
*May 11 Parkway Holdings Q1
*May 11 NatSteel Q1
#May 14 Neptune Orient Lines (reports in US$) Q1
May 14 City Developments Q1
*May 15 People's Food Holdings Q1
*May 15 SembCorp Logistics Q1
Hyflux Q1
* Pine Agritech
* Yanlord Q1

*Asterisk indicates this was the date when the company
released earnings data last year.
#Tentatively as stated by company
Allgreen Properties Apr 27 Q1
Ascendas REIT Apr 18 Q4
Ascott Group Apr 20 Q1
Asia Pacific Breweries May 11 Q2
CapitaLand Apr 27 Q1
CapitaMall Trust Management Apr 20 Q1
CapitaCommercial Trust Apr 25 Q1
Chartered Semiconductor Mfg Apr 27 Q1
City Developments May 14 Q1
ComfortDelgro May 10 Q1
Cosco Corp. (Singapore) Ltd. Apr 30 Q1
Creative Technology May 3 Q3
Datacraft Asia May 10 Q2
DBS Group Holdings Apr 28 Q1
Del Monte Pacific Apr 28 Q1
Fortune REIT(reports in HK$) May 9 Q1
Fraser & Neave May 11 Q2
Great Eastern Holdings May 10 Q1
Haw Par Corp May 10 Q1
Hyflux Q1
Jardine Cycle & Carriage May 10 Q1
Keppel Corp Apr 26 Q1
Keppel Land Apr 25 Q1
Keppel Telecom Apr 24 Q1
K-REIT Apr 16 Q1
Macquarie MEAG Prime REIT Apr 23 Q1
Mapletree Logistics Trust Apr 26 Q1
MCL Land Apr 28 Q1
MobileOne Apr 24 Q1
NatSteel May 11 Q1
Neptune Orient Lines(rpts in US$)May 14 Q1
Noble Group May 10 Q1
Osim Int'l Apr 25 Q1
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp May 9 Q1
Parkway Holdings May 11 Q1
People's Food Holdings May 15 Q1
Pine Agritech
SembCorp Industries May 3 Q1
SembCorp Marine May 2 Q1
SembCorp Logistics May 15 Q1
SMRT Corp Apr 24 Q4
SNP Corp Ltd Apr 18 Q1
Singapore Airlines May 11 Q4
Singapore Airport Terminal Svcs May 11 Q4
SIA Engineering May 11 Q4
Singapore Exchange Apr 10 Q3
Singapore Food Inds Apr 20 Q1
Singapore Petroleum Corp Apr 24 Q1
Singapore Post Apr 27 Q4
Singapore Press Hldgs Apr 12 Q2
Singapore Technologies Eng May 2 Q1
Singapore Telecommunications May 4 Q4
StarHub May 10 Q1
STATS ChipPac Apr 27 Q1
STX Pan Ocean May 8 Q1
Suntec REIT Apr 26 Q2
United Industrial Corp Apr 28 Q1
United Overseas Bank May 8 Q1
United Test and Assembly Center Apr 26 Q1
Venture Corp Apr 25 Q1

For the Singapore events diary, click on [SG/DIARY]
For Singapore initial public offerings, click on
For Singapore economic data, click on [SG/ECI\]
((Reporting by Singapore Newsroom; +65 6403 5677, Fax
+65 6534 8140, Bureau e-mail:

Saturday, April 21, 2007

STI analysis

Decided to do some detailed analysis on STI.

Above is the weekly chart of STI. We can see a bearish candlestick formation - bearish engulfing. Of course bearish engulfing candle stick doesn't mean it will actually happen but the chances is that it might. If formation is true, that means the next week we'll see STI going down since we're using the weekly chart. I believe Monday STI will gap up due to strong Dow showing on Fri (+150) but might show weakness after Monday.

On the whole, STI is still bullish. I noticed that there is a flag formation starting on the 1st week of march to the 2nd week of april, with measured measured flag target of 3970. Of course we'll see STI consolidating the next few weeks. As long as it doesn't come close to the lowest flag formation (2930), the formation shouldn't be negated. Of course this is my amateurish TA analysis.

On STI daily charts, a double top formation is already seen, a bearish reversal formation. However, we bounced back on last Fri. This doesn't negate the double top formation as long as we did not shoot above the highest of the double top: 3450. Here, 2 scenarios can happen: we can go up around 3450 and come down below 3290, we'll have a lower high and lower low, signalling a downtrend for STI. 2nd scenario is that we shoot above 3450 and come down above 3450 before rebounding upwards again, forming a uptrend. Of course, we can always trade sideways up and down.

Combining other technicals oscillators like stochastics (blue below red, both trending down) and MACD (blue cross below red, red histogram doesn't show signs of peaking yet) as well as RSI (downtrend in sight), it doesn't seem like we can overcome 3450 in the recent future.

Certainly looking at both weekly and daily, I will say STI will go up in the short term (1-2 days) but will go down for the next few weeks overall. Macrowise - golden week labour day for China and Japan with expected low market volume makes it hard for STI to break resistance. Dow is also breaking new high for like 3 days already, so might reverse soon. The more impt bearish point is that earning seasons for Dow and STI is ending in May. All this makes me believe that STI have quite a good probability to correct further in the month of May.

I would personally avoid stocks found in STI index. Penny play seems to be the in thing, just look at the top volume for the recent weeks. I'll bet on construction stocks with high visibility until June/july period because of the award of construction contracts for IR. During US hurricane season (begining August), I'll bet on oil stocks and alternative oil plays like Wilmar. Last week we don't have a single hurricane hitting US shores but I don't think this year would be so lucky again.

If this looks so much like fortune telling, well, sorry! I'm trying to practice my technicals, so what is the best way than to post here in advance to practice? Pls treat all this as nonsense and don't act on anything posted here without doing your due diligence.

Friday, April 20, 2007


Haha, market rebounded!

STI sitting on uptrend line. Immediate resistance at 3375 need to be overcomed, then subsequently, the new high at around 3450 needs to be broken in order to reverse the downtrend. We could be in triangle formation, with STI bouncing in between the upper and lower trendline. This just means more volatile trading sessions next few weeks until we find a direction.

Based on today's high volume rebound, I think underlying trend is still very bullish. There are a few factors to be careful of. Firstly, when earning seasons stops for both US and singapore, there'll be no more good news to propel us forward. Usually may is a bad time for stocks. Next, is the golden week (1 week break) for china and japan. So, we might be seeing low market volumes at the last week of april. Best to stay on the sidelines or do quickies.

All the stocks that i sold yesterday came back today. Oh bumber, what to do? I don't regret because that is still the right thing to do. Cut loss when things don't look right. I always hear people saying hold long term for stocks. But I never hear the second part - hold long term for fundamentally sound stocks. Not all stocks are meant for long term. I sold all my speculative ones (i bought on contra and haven't paid) to close off all my open positions.

Nowadays I think i'll just focus on medium to long term. By that, I mean at least 2 months to a year. Different mindset huh? Speculative stocks (less than 1 week holding period to 2 weeks) I'll minimise. Basically I'm changing my profit because I realise money is made by doing it slow and steady way. Fast and furious money comes and go off. Investing is a philosophy, haha

I'm going to revamp my portfolio soon. I'm going to break down my holding stocks to longterm (>1 yr), medium term (3-6 mth), short term (1 mth) and speculative (<2 weeks). Of course the proportion of my capital will be in that order too. I'll release more details when I get it done. Probably i'll exercise position sizing to restrict my risks with regards to my total portfolio.

Dow +112 now. Europe all green. What a difference a day makes, haha!

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, April 19, 2007

STI fell 109 points

Humpty dumpty had a great fall today.

China postponed its GDP to after market close, so speculators are thinking that perhaps the GDP is too high so the govt will impose interest rate hike or whatever means it can to curb the excessive economic heating. Apparently, this action is supposed to stop the market from crashing but well, it still happens. If i remember the last 2 interest rates hike, it drop, but it rose to even greater heights.

Setting this aside, STI dropped 109 points to go below my support of 3300. That's not a good sign. What we have now is a double top, a bearish market reversal sign. What's more is that 3300 falls below 20days ema. Haha, but i'm not worried at all, don't know why. I think i already anticipated this, so what's another 100 points fall. In fact, I think correction is almost done. Remember, to climb up at 40 storied building is longer and slower than to fall from the same building.

Next support for sti is 3230, and this time I don't expect this to give way.

Seldom do we can to see the world index giving all red. Haha, so here it is, take a good look!

I sold off midas already, lost 460. Today quite unlucky also, trying to catch china energy when it brokeout, but had to cut after sti tumbled, lost another 300. Hmm, but overall still gain because my of swiber. All breakout will fail today because of the bigger market sentiment.

I bought 5 lots of yongnam today at 0.345, even though there's major selldown. Very confident of this counter. Imagine everyone people is selling, but this counter still turns positive. Goldman sachs initiates call buy for yongnam with TP of 0.44, today closed at 0.50. I'm keeping this for medium to long term, so I won't sell this off. No support level for this. Similar for CSC, if there's contract win, I'll buy more, otherwise that's it for now.

Swiber dropped 0.110, quite heavily though on low volume. It's okay, still far from my average buy price of 1.29. I'm going to hold this for medium term too, because today they released a report saying that opened a branch office in Brunei. I like it that they are trying to gain a foothold in brunei, so they can secure more contracts. Excellent business i must say.

Actually looking for good bargains to hold. Wilmar is coming back again, hahah, so is cosco. Continue dropping and I'll sell off longcheer to finance the purchase. Haha! Longcheer dropped, no hope already.

Wilmar - aiming around 2.87, where the gap is. Preferably around 2.62, with support and fibo 61.8% retracement zone. Haha, but that's a bit too far from today's close of 2.98, we'll see.

Dow doing pretty well, -25 only. Haha, might see an early recovery tomorow, though I doubt it.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Golden rules of investing - from BT

Golden rules of investing

DANIEL BUENAS advises investors not to forget that there is a creed they should live by

PAY, salaries and jobs - these have been perhaps the hottest topics of discussion in recent weeks.

Every other day we read articles and hear stories of how much some fresh graduate is earning at his new job as investment banker, or how our aunt or uncle made a killing on that high-end property he or she flipped.

And with the stock market soaring to new peaks, some of us must surely be feeling a little left behind as others all around seem to be making money as if gold were falling from the sky. Amidst all this, perhaps now will be a good time to review some of investing's golden rules, as well as to put some perspective to things.

The first thing that any investor should do is to develop an investment plan and strategy. However, while that may be the technical or 'hardware' side of things, one area that many investors forget to nurture is the 'heartware' of investing.

What do I mean by that? Sure, we all need a strategy to investing, but I think every person in general - and an investor specifically - should have a code, or creed, that he or she should subscribe to and live by.

There are no hard and fast rules, but here are some things that you might want to think about:

It's not about the money - really!

Let's be honest - in a society as materialistic as ours, money has become enshrined in our national psyche. This is not uncommon throughout the world, but one must understand that making more money is not a goal in and of itself. Sure, we choose to invest in order to grow our assets and income, but let's not forget that more cash is a conduit to a better life - for ourselves and our family. So if your pursuit for money means sacrificing your relationships, your health or the quality of life, then perhaps you should re-evaluate your circumstances.

And don't think more money will solve all your problems. Assuming you have no prior debt or other obligations, if you can't live within your means on your current salary, it is likely that even if you start to earn more, you will still have problems making ends meet. It is often those with the highest income who fall into the deepest debt.

Money is not just money

An addenda to the above point is that your money is more than a figure in your bank account - it is a tool, a living breathing creature that can be nurtured, grown and put to work. Accumulating more wealth is great, but knowing what to do with it is equally important. This ties in with why it's important to control your spending now, and not later. The effect of compounding means saving $1 today for investment is vastly different from saving $1 five years from now.

Recently, I spoke to a friend who, having just graduated, is already planning to buy a car. With a monthly income of just $2,500, and coming from a relatively humble family, I asked her why she would want to devote such a large part of her income to financing a depreciating asset.

'Why not?' she quipped back. 'I can afford it.'

Well, couple such an attitude with the ready abundance of credit cards and credit facilities - and given the Singaporean proclivity for expensive habits like travelling, buying branded goods, and holding overly lavish weddings - it is no wonder that many young working adults are mirred in debt by their early 30s.

You are in charge of your life - so take charge of it. Now.

OK, this sounds really trite and preachy, but it is true. Unhappy that someone seems to be making more money than you? Then do something about it. It's your life after all! Don't be afraid to fail, and don't let your circumstances hold you back.

Think you should start investing? Good for you. Everybody, should invest - wisely, I may add - so go ahead and do it.

But don't keep saying you want to invest, and never do anything about it. Empower yourself by doing some research, asking for advice (from some one qualified to give it), and then starting to invest. The sooner you start, the better. Just think of it this way: the longer you wait, the less time your money will have to grow, and the lower the long-term rewards.

Don't learn from your family if they're bad examples

This may be harsh, but it is true. Is your family mirred in debt, or making just enough to make ends meet? Figure out why this is the case. Sometimes, it is a matter of circumstance. But it could also be because of poor money management. And while job income does play a part, it is important to note that investing is not just a rich man's game - unless you are in the lowest income brackets, it is possible to save enough to invest on a regular basis.

When it comes to saving for investment, pay yourself first

It's a simple concept really. When you get your first pay cheque, decide how much you can realistically save in liquid assets and for investment. Take into account your monthly liabilities, and see what that adds up to.

For example, you may decide to save 15 per cent of your pay in cash to build up a reserve (most financial advisers recommend six-months in liquid assets), 35 per cent for investment (split into 10 per cent low-risk, 10 per cent medium-risk, and 15 per cent high risk).

The remaining 50 per cent can be used to pay bills and other obligations, as well as for general spending. In that way, you assure your future, instead of squandering it in the present.

In the end, investing is more than just making money. The more philosophically inclined would even say it mirrors the way a person handles life. To succeed, it takes discipline, risk-management and prudent judgement, but there are many rewards to investing carefully and early-on in life. Just don't forget what's really important, and the reasons behind growing your wealth.

Why didn't midas breakout? C'mon

STI down by 14 points today. For today and the past few days, 3400 seems a strong support. STI always bounces back upon touching 3400 intraday. But having tested support for 3 to 4 times, I think run out of steam already. If 3400 broken, next level should be around 3300.

Swiber continued the surge upwards after pulling back to 1.56 before closing +0.030 to 1.65. I lost count how many consecutive days this stock rush upwards already. Should be hitting target of 1.70 soon, perhaps early next week. I expect more profit taking for this stock as I see selling pressure starts to increase.

CSC holdings still doing well. BBR halt trading, contract awarded?? Yongnam, on hindsight looks to be a better bet. Yongnam have ventures in middle east too, so I thought that's a good way to diversify the cyclical nature of construction industry in singapore. Hmm...CSC and yongnam playing catchup. I might get yongnam when I'm a bit lighter with my portfolio, too many to handle.

Midas doesn't look too good. 1.76 now, after dropping another 0.010 today. My contra due date is coming on Fri and I don't intend to keep this. Hope to sell off as soon as possible.

I personally hope it'll be like jiutian. These two stocks breakout on the same day. Midas seems the more probable one to breakout with high volume, but in the end, it's jiutian who finally emerged the winner. Jiutian gained 0.12 after breaking out of 2.33 to close at 2.45. Let's hope midas do the same too. But if it drops touch 1.74, I'll cut loss. No point holding onto hope. Technicals is like that lah, it's all about probabilities. But sometimes even with 0.01 probability, it can still happen.

YangZhijiang, haha, ipo fever. Generates 12.4% of market volume for the whole of today. IPO price is 0.95, close at 1.34. Now is not the time to enter, I saw how furious the selling goes. Maybe if really want is have to wait for it to pullback first. Let all the weaker holders sell, then this stock can realise it's potential.

I woke up early to see this in action, not too bad. It's not everytime you can get to see a hot ipo in action, so it'll be good to see how it turns out, how the buying and selling action is, AND HOW NOT TO BUY THE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WHEN IT OPENS. That's bolded because it's very impt. Fastest way to lose money.

Dow is +10 now, Europe mostly red.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Bought midas

STI today went down to touch 3400 (around) before rebounding slightly to close +1.17 with rather high volume.

Today is quite an exceptional day unless you are holding STI index stocks. Big rally day for pennies and subpennies, with many many of them breaking their all time high. Jiuitan, midas, swiber, swissco, csc, god, i can't even look fast enough.

While the mood is exceptionally bullish, we must all bare in mind and keep our exuberance in check. Should be U-turning soon after reaching this high. My guess is after April when all the companies have reported their quarter results. The only good news that i can think of during may-july period will be the annoucement of contracts award for marina bay IR and sentosa IR.

I'll stay nimble and vested in construction/property related stocks by then, we'll see.

CSC holdings, yongnam (amongst other construction stocks) are riding the genting sentosa's IR wave. Genting went as high as 1.12 before falling back. As I mentioned, I won't be putting in more money into CSC unless contracts are granted for it. From what I know, CSC should get some contracts for both IR. Rumors are flying, of course.

Swiber went crazy to go up 0.170, closing at 1.62. TP set by JP morgan (1.61) is reached. I think some brokerage should initiate fresh targets for swiber soon. Excellent! My target price of 1.7 should be reached soon enough.

Today I bought midas too. Excellent company with solid management, doing railways I believe. Haha, sorry, no time to read up before I buy as it threatens to breakout of 52 weeks high on exceptionally high volume (3 times more than ave volume). If tmr breaks and close above 1.81, I think it'll sky rocket to $2.00. That's based on flag breakout price objective. Support level at 1.74.

Dow breaking all time high soon, +50 now.

Tmr Yangzhijiang ipo, together with its warrants. Heard temasek got a share of this stock, so whoever got this ipo will see it fly tmr. Gray area 1.20-1.50, ipo price only 0.95. I'll put this on my watchlist now, so tmr can check.

Monday, April 16, 2007

Bought CSC holdings today

STI rose up by 40 points, covered gap already, so should be positioned for more upside. It better clear 3440, otherwise STI will form a lower high. That could be bad. Charts wise, all the way! Volume is very high :)

Next resistance for STI at 3440, support at 3370.

Regionally, Nikkei and HSI went up 260 and 416 respectively. I haven't been monitoring HSI for a long time since I swore off warrants. Haven't been touching any warrants since I last sold them 2-3 weeks ago. But I do know that Citic bank going to finish its IPO on Thurs for its dual listing on China and HK market (why don't they come over to singapore?!). HSI and Shanghai should surge on this new counter. Will I buy warrants then? Hmm...tempting, but better not.

Swiber went up 0.060 today. Sometimes when you bought a stock and hold it for a period of time, it went past a certain point and will never touch it again. Imagine STI was 1200 points a long time ago, now it reached 3440 and will probably never touch 1200 ever again. I believe Swiber will never touch the average price that I bought it (1.29), unless a global recession comes. This offshore maritime business is booming with orders coming a year in advance, so related stocks should do well. Cosco is another stock that I would like to own, unfortunately, it ran too fast before I can catch it.

A new IPO yangzhijiang is coming to town. That's also dealing with maritime offshore business and I think it will bring this sector up when it starts trading on Thurs. It's also the first time that warrants for this underlying will be issued together at the same time as the mother stock. This is definitely the stock to watch out for.

Back to swiber again... Swiber broke all time high to close at 1.45 with above average volume. It broke out of triangle (pardon my TA, I'm not sure what kind it's called, i'll just call it triangle) formation, so the price objective is measured by measuring the lowest point and projecting it upwards by the same amt (0.38)

Based on this, the price objective is a minimum 1.7. 'Minimum' because I give a lot of room for error as I'm not skilled enough, so I better be more conservative.

How long does it take to reach? Nobody knows. I probably won't be selling this stock unless some major things happen. Cut the losers and let the winners ride. Since Swiber broke all time high, there is really no more resistance to stop its upside till fear sets in and people start to take profit. Hence, there should be more upside for this week. Oh my god...just received news that JP morgan (powerful ang mo brokerage house) issued a buy call for Swiber with tp of 1.61. Don't huat also cannot already, no wonder today surged up further so much.

Wilmar...sigh...missed this one. Kept on surging forward, doesn't even do a pull back for me to collect. Looks like I'll have to wait a long time for this (and for cosco)

A lot of construction news is out today. Mah bow tan said he'll relax the foreign workers quota because of labour shortage. Lim Hng Kiang said $508 million contracts will be awarded for sentosa IR the next few weeks. Based on what I know, I bet strongly that CSC holdings will get a share of the pie since they specialise in geotech engineering and foundations, an impt component of any major construction.

I got 5 lots of CSC holding, small small only to try at 0.305. 52 wks high is 0.310, a bit risky, yes. But if there are news related breakout, no support/resistance matters, that's why I put in some money to bet on it winning contracts the next few weeks.

I'll add more if there are positive news on contract won. I intend to keep till at least end of this month, maybe till mid May, depending on when the IR contract tender award is released.

Europe side is all green, dow at +56 now. Should be looking at positive close for Dow tonight, backed by Alan Greenspan's remark that recession possibility is smaller now and that subprime not a big concern as it's only a small part of the economy.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Rotational play

STI down by 47 points.

Looks like support at 3400 is not significant after all. If it doesn't act as support, it just means we have more room to do down. The next point I'm look at will be around 3345. That's the gap that we have to cover, as mentioned in previous postings. It's only like 30 more points to go, so not a problem.

Actually this pullback, unless you're holding major STI index stocks like CDL, capitaland, DBS and such, shouldn't affect the rest of the people. Most pennies cheong. In fact, rotational play seems to be at work, where different sector move up together one after another. Last week was property, then came oil stocks, so tech stocks next? Most of my counters didn't go down as much, and some rose up instead. Volume is lesser than yesterday's. Really no cause for concern.

I think by the end of this week, the gap should be already covered, so that means STI should drop around 30 points tmr. Quite possible.

I decided not to cut swiber yet. Most change my mentality a bit, from short term trader to medium term, where I hold for at least 2 weeks to 1.5 months. We'll see if this works. Strictly no warrants for now. The more I read about warrants, the more I believe they are just things that nobody should try. Risk reward is too high.

Dow at -13 now.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

STI down by 2.0

STI is finally down after so many days of consecutive up days.

Down by 2, haha! What's more impt is the fact that intra-day, STI went down to 3400 before doing a rebound towards the latter part of the day. This should validate 3400 as a support level. Looking at RSI, it basically hovers around 40-50% zone. If you notice carefully, RSI is actually rising very gently in the morning till market closes. That's a very good sign that today's selling is just a light pullback, perhaps profit taking after so many days of STI record breaking days.

Swiber remained unchanged for the day. But looking at intraday, Swiber went down to 1.31 (1.30 being the support level), rebound up to 1.34 (support turned resistance) then went back down to 1.31 again. By the end of this week, or early part of next week, if all goes well, Swiber should be ready to move up again. Swiber is now undergoing a pullback, so it should be normal. As long as 1.30 don't break, I think I'm alright with the daily fluctuations.

That's enough for now. Dow at -28, europe mostly green.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

9th day of up days for STI

STI went up again by 22.6 points on rather high volume. Such strength in STI, hmm...

As we go on climbing up despite the psychological resistance at 3400, bare in mind this: there is a gap at 3345 that needs to be filled, unless this is yet another breakaway gap. All indicators point more upside to come, though I think a pull back at this point to cover the gap will be healthier for future growth. Candlestick chart showers a top tweezer pattern, a formation associated with market high. Might see a pull back soon, possibly mid-week to later part of week. Major support at 3300 level. I don't think we'll need to use that support anytime soon.

Swiber seems to be neglected by the general market rally. It's funny that I'm actually happier if all the world on tension. My stocks somehow flew during those tension filled times than when we rallied. Somehow my stocks were left behind.

Swiber is near my cut-loss point soon. Today is contra pay day for my batch of 5 lots bought at 1.34. Today it dropped to 1.31 on low volume.

Support level: 1.30, 1.24
Cut-loss level: 1.30

If it touches 1.30 and bounce right back, I'll keep it. If not, I'll run and live to fight another day. Anyway, even if I sell it at 1.30, I'd already make some pocket money already, so no pressure.

One more chart for education purpose, to those not familiar with technicals. This is the chart of OSIM O23.

I put in bollinger band indicator, these are the 2 boundaries that surround the stock price. As you can see, the bollinger band is tigtening around the price, almost squeezing the stock price within the upper and lower boundary. This is what I call a bollinger squeeze. It happens when consolidation takes place with low volume and low volatility. Looking at the time period, Osim has been consolidating for 2 months already.

Once a bollinger squeeze is in effect, 2 outcome can happen. A very violent upswing or a very violent downswing. It's hard to tell which direction osim will go. My gut feel is actually up because of RSI steady uptrend.

The longer the squeeze is, the more % movement the price will be, once it breaks out of the bollinger band. The question is when will it break out? Nobody knows.

Europe a sea of green. Dow at +0.73.

Monday, April 09, 2007

STI up by 54, minister pay up by 60%

Woo woo...sti cheong so much :)

Up 54 points to a nice nice number of 3400.00 exactly. Usually round numbers are psychological points of resistance, so we might pull back tomorrow. Dow's looking very good now though, so it might hit above it before a healthy pull back.

All the property stocks got a boost. Capitaland up 0.30, CDL up 0.40. Basically almost all the stocks went up, except my Swiber :(. I think swiber went up too fast last week already, well, it'll have its day, so I'm not worried. Tomorrow is my contra day up, so I might decided to sell off my 5 lots that I bought last thurs. See how the market is tmr. I might hold it too...hmm..

STI has 7 consecutive days of up days already, a healthy pull back is neccessary to climb higher. Might see it later part of this week. Quite a number of figures to take note for this week. I think the estimate of GDP is going to be released this week. US also have some impt economic figures out, can't remember exactly what.

Global voice getting hotter nowadays, haha! Might see if there's opportunities to trade this stock.

Dow is up +10 now. Europe mostly green. Should be a good day tmr :)

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Happy easter fri!

HK closed for easter holiday today, leaving nikkei to drop by 50 pts, while STI gained slightly by 13 pts.

It's impt to take note of the whole movement of STI today. In the morning, STI drop to 3320 before rebounding up to 3345. The last high before the Feb sell off was around 3320 too. This means that we have a higher high with the previous high as a support - which is a good sign we are going bullish for the time being.

Haha, that's all I have to say today. My total loss of this week stands at: 24.3 k.

-DBS might issue new and cheaper shares so that more retail investors can afford it, either that or they will sell it at smaller shares per lot instead of 1000 shares per lot now. Good news! If they do that, I will surely subscribe. DBS got license to operate islamic bank, PLUS they are the only local bank in singapore to get a license to operate in china PLUS they have a global reach spanning to HK, China, and possibly other places that I don't remember. Now is at 22.30 per share, if you buy 1 lot, that's $22,300!!

Happy easter friday!

What kind of people am I voting in to represent me in parliament?

Taken from yahoo.


SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - The salary of the prime minister of Singapore is more than three times that of U.S. President George Bush and about four times that of Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But that is not enough.

Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong may soon be getting a hefty pay rise as part of a controversial ministerial salary hike that has infuriated many Singaporeans.

Lee, who is estimated to earn about S$2 million (US$1.32 million) per year, said last month that the salaries of Singapore ministers, top public officials and judges have fallen way below benchmark private sector salaries and may need to be doubled.

"It is critical for us to keep these salaries competitive, so as to be able to bring in a continuing flow of able and successful people," Lee said in a speech in March.

Lee said that Singapore ministers, who currently earn about S$1.2 million (US$800,000) a year, should be earning S$2.2 million (US$1.45 million). Details of the new ministerial salaries will be announced in parliament on April 9.

Since 1994, the salaries of Singapore ministers have been set at two-thirds the median pay of the 48 best-paid bankers, lawyers, accountants, engineers, and executives in multi-nationals and manufacturing firms.

But the latest salary hike, which comes at a time when income disparity in Singapore is wider than ever, has sparked an outpour of unusually blunt criticism from Singaporeans.

Hundreds have signed an online petition and the readers' letter columns of the state-controlled newspapers -- one of the few outlets for dissenting views in the city-state -- have published a series of letters protesting the planned hike.


Some Singaporeans argue that the six lucrative professions on which ministers' salaries are based do not reflect the country's economy or the government's performance.

"No matter what happens to the economy, the government always wins because it takes only the best results," Jacob Tan said in a letter to the Straits Times.

And given that a 2 percentage point rise in sales tax from July will further hit the poor, some said the government plan is tactless.

"I am rather disappointed with the government's insensitivity," reader Vanessa Teo said.

But the sharpest criticism was online. The "awesome raise on top of their already obscene pay is completely unjustifiable," read an online petition that has gathered 304 signatures.

Given the rare public outcry, analysts said the government may now hesitate to raise salaries by the full S$1 million.

"I would be surprised if they implemented the full formula that would give them over S$2 million," said Garry Rodan, director of the Asia Research Centre at Murdoch University.

The government defends the high salaries as necessary to attract the brightest people and to prevent corruption.

"If we don't do that ... corruption will set in and we will become like many other countries," Defence Minister Teo Chee Hean was quoted as saying in the Straits Times last week.

Singapore government officials' salaries are set by different wage formulas, depending on their seniority. The figures are not readily available to the public, but the prime minister earned S$1.94 million in 2000, according to the Straits Times.

Ministers' wages were last raised in 2000, but were cut in 2001 and 2003 during the economic downturn, although the cuts have since been reversed, the Public Service Division said.


Some argue that Singapore ministers are not overpaid, but that ministers elsewhere are underpaid.

Singapore is an oasis of wealth, peace and law and order in a region rife with poverty, violence and corruption.

The island state is Asia's second-richest country after Japan, with a gross domestic product per capita of about $31,000.

The World Economic Forum ranks Singapore as the fifth-most competitive of 125 economies in 2006, while Transparency International said the city-state was the fifth-most corruption-free nation out of 163. Isn't that worth a price?

"According to a Chinese proverb, an able general is worth more than 10,000 foot soldiers. So too is the worth of our leaders if they have the wisdom to help us weather global competition," reader Yik Keng Yeong said.

But critics say that the prosperity and security enjoyed by Singaporeans are not that different from other Asian first-world economies such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan, where government ministers do not command such high salaries.

Finland, for instance, beat Singapore in the WEF and Transparency International polls -- as second-most competitive and most corruption-free country -- but its Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen earns about a sixth of Lee's estimated salary.

What irks Singapore's opposition parties is that the million-dollar salaries are only accessible to members of Lee's ruling People's Action Party. Opposition politicians have been crippled by defamation lawsuits brought by government ministers and no opposition party has ever held a ministerial post.

The opposition also argues that a million-dollar pay hike is unwarranted for leaders of a country that has no legal minimum wage and where 20 percent of the population earns an average monthly salary of S$1,500 ($991).

But Lee Kuan Yew -- modern Singapore's first prime minister, who is still the leading voice in his son's cabinet -- will have none of it.

"The cure to all this talk is really a good dose of incompetent government," Lee senior told the Straits Times on Thursday, adding that it is "absurd" for Singaporeans to quarrel about ministerial pay and warning that Singapore would suffer it the government could not pay competitive salaries.

"Your security will be at risk and our women will become maids in other people's countries," he said. (Additional reporting by Sakari Suoninen in Helsinki, Isabel Reynolds in Tokyo, Joanne Allen in Washington)

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Dow up 128 pts

No need to argue with the market.

Yesterday I saw dow cheong up so much on released data that the subprime woes might not be so bad afterall. Add to that the news that oil price came down a little, and viola! we have dow rising up to 128 points.

Of course asia markets will follow this big brother. Everyone cheong up, with STI closing at record high of 3332, a gain of 44 points. Volume is a respectable 2.4 million. I queued to buy swiber again at 1.34, 5 lots and got it. Swiber closed at 1.35, with intraday high of 1.40. Huge buy ups for this counter.

Is it stupid to buy at 1.31 last week, to sell at 1.34 earlier this week, before buying back at 1.34 again? I lose some brokerage this way but it's still worth it because the conditions had changed. Early part of this week, we saw a slew of bad news like possible war on iran, rising oil price and subprime woes in US. But now, with released data on subprime problems subsiding and Iran to release the sailors to UK, I think we're set for another bull run. Basically I'm protecting my profits and preventing it eroding my already big losses.

This bull run in STI should be quite strong, since we broke out of a wedge on the daily charts with rather high volume. Today we've reached high of 3330, the level before the selloff this year. We should break new ground sometime next week before consolidation. Tmr might see profit taking (already seen it later part of today) given the long weekend and good run-up to date.

Cosco gained some ground after some good news. I still won't buy it now because the charts are not favourable. I'm still waiting for my target of 2.77/2.78.

My losses now stand at 24.6 k, way off my high of nearly 30k. Slowly and surely, I'll get it back, like what I did when I regained back my 18k lost last year.

Dow is now +10, for europe markets - a good part of it is green. I think tmr STI should drop a little or stay neutral. As long as it does not negate today's gain, all is well. What's the chances of it dropping 44 points tmr? haha

-some good news for construction stocks, myanmar going to supply us with new sand after indonesia banned it

-genting upgraded by ang mo brokerage macquarie (or something like that) to 1.57, that explains today's run up. If that's accurate, we're talking about a potential gain of *gasps* 50%!

-new century (i think), a subprime lender in US declared bankrupt. That's an indication of how bad the housing loan problem is for US

People, anyone got impt news that you think everyone should know, do post it in the chatbox, ya?

~edited some wrong info (i bolded the edited bits), sorry! too tired last night to check the validity of the info that floods my mind everyday

Monday, April 02, 2007

Warning signs

Warning signs flashing again.

STI went up with lower volume again. There's a whole lot of bad news on US side but market doesn't seem to acknowledge that fact and keep going up. WITH LOW VOLUME. Alarms bells went off in my head again.

I'll be cautious for this month. Earnings seasons for singapore side is over. I don't foresee any good news coming up, esp with Iran-UK-US tension and rising oil prices. Iran threw stones and flash-bangs at UK embassy - a step back for the peaceful return of british sailors. Could it escalate into war?

We haven't covered the gap at 3000, I'm always mindful of this when STI keeps climbing higher amidst all the bad news with low volume.

Today I sold off half my Swiber holdings that I contra last week. Since tmr is the contra T+3 day and I don't intend to hold on due to the tense situation, I just queue to sell before I left in the morning at 1.34. I bought at 1.31, 5 lots, so that's $90 gain. Intra day high for swiber went as high at 1.38 before closing at 1.32 again on high volume. I still have another 5 lots bought at a very safe price of 1.24, so that will let me ride the uptrend should this stock rallies.

Pac andes went as high as 1.20 before closing at 1.19 today, gaining a good 0.080 on higher than average volume. This comes when China fishery, pac andes subsidiary, wanted to split shares to raise liquidity, presumably. That's more upside to come, of course. I don't intend to sell this off for the mid-term, as I see very good prospect for this stock. In fact, I'm waiting for the shareholder meeting for them to approve the rights issue so I can get 1-1 new shares at 0.52, a huge discount at today's closing price. I'm already getting 40% returns on this stock already, looking to get even more.

I won't have time to monitor stock the whole of this week. I hope I won't get caught off guard if anything happens. Anyway, I closed all my open positions and sold off all my warrants and volatile stocks. Now only sitting on pac andes, yellow pages, longcheer (sigh) and swiber.

Oh ya, cosco reached my target price of 2.82 already. Now is a bad bad time to buy, looking at all the technicals. MACD going to cross over the downside. RSI flat or heading down. Stochastics heading down. I'll probably try to fish for bottom around 2.77/2.78, where that's the last peak and hence support level. Anybody wants to join me?

My condolences to those who lost their lives/properties on today's earthquake and tsunami.