Monday, April 16, 2007

Bought CSC holdings today

STI rose up by 40 points, covered gap already, so should be positioned for more upside. It better clear 3440, otherwise STI will form a lower high. That could be bad. Charts wise, all the way! Volume is very high :)

Next resistance for STI at 3440, support at 3370.

Regionally, Nikkei and HSI went up 260 and 416 respectively. I haven't been monitoring HSI for a long time since I swore off warrants. Haven't been touching any warrants since I last sold them 2-3 weeks ago. But I do know that Citic bank going to finish its IPO on Thurs for its dual listing on China and HK market (why don't they come over to singapore?!). HSI and Shanghai should surge on this new counter. Will I buy warrants then? Hmm...tempting, but better not.

Swiber went up 0.060 today. Sometimes when you bought a stock and hold it for a period of time, it went past a certain point and will never touch it again. Imagine STI was 1200 points a long time ago, now it reached 3440 and will probably never touch 1200 ever again. I believe Swiber will never touch the average price that I bought it (1.29), unless a global recession comes. This offshore maritime business is booming with orders coming a year in advance, so related stocks should do well. Cosco is another stock that I would like to own, unfortunately, it ran too fast before I can catch it.

A new IPO yangzhijiang is coming to town. That's also dealing with maritime offshore business and I think it will bring this sector up when it starts trading on Thurs. It's also the first time that warrants for this underlying will be issued together at the same time as the mother stock. This is definitely the stock to watch out for.

Back to swiber again... Swiber broke all time high to close at 1.45 with above average volume. It broke out of triangle (pardon my TA, I'm not sure what kind it's called, i'll just call it triangle) formation, so the price objective is measured by measuring the lowest point and projecting it upwards by the same amt (0.38)

Based on this, the price objective is a minimum 1.7. 'Minimum' because I give a lot of room for error as I'm not skilled enough, so I better be more conservative.

How long does it take to reach? Nobody knows. I probably won't be selling this stock unless some major things happen. Cut the losers and let the winners ride. Since Swiber broke all time high, there is really no more resistance to stop its upside till fear sets in and people start to take profit. Hence, there should be more upside for this week. Oh my god...just received news that JP morgan (powerful ang mo brokerage house) issued a buy call for Swiber with tp of 1.61. Don't huat also cannot already, no wonder today surged up further so much.

Wilmar...sigh...missed this one. Kept on surging forward, doesn't even do a pull back for me to collect. Looks like I'll have to wait a long time for this (and for cosco)

A lot of construction news is out today. Mah bow tan said he'll relax the foreign workers quota because of labour shortage. Lim Hng Kiang said $508 million contracts will be awarded for sentosa IR the next few weeks. Based on what I know, I bet strongly that CSC holdings will get a share of the pie since they specialise in geotech engineering and foundations, an impt component of any major construction.

I got 5 lots of CSC holding, small small only to try at 0.305. 52 wks high is 0.310, a bit risky, yes. But if there are news related breakout, no support/resistance matters, that's why I put in some money to bet on it winning contracts the next few weeks.

I'll add more if there are positive news on contract won. I intend to keep till at least end of this month, maybe till mid May, depending on when the IR contract tender award is released.

Europe side is all green, dow at +56 now. Should be looking at positive close for Dow tonight, backed by Alan Greenspan's remark that recession possibility is smaller now and that subprime not a big concern as it's only a small part of the economy.