Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Closing analysis of Dow jones intraday

This posting is just to close off my Dow analysis last night.

I saw a descending triangle formation last night before I went to sleep for intraday Dow jones. I knew that that probability of it breaking out of the triangle on the downside is higher than the upside, simply because it is a descending triangle where lower highs and lower lows are registered.

What I didn't expect to see is that even the timing of the breakout is sort of accurate. If you look at the previous triangle, the part where the uptrend and downtrend lines intersect, the time is around 1:30pm. If you look at the graph below, the breakout point is also around 1:30pm. This means that using a triangle formation, we might be able to predict the time for the breakout too? I'm not sure about this, because books don't mention this at all.

I think it's worthwhile to think about this. I'll try to get more information on this while practising on other charts too.

Anyway, dow broke out of the triangle, with expected large price movement. It closed at -42 pt without touching 13,000 psychological resistance.

STI red now, broke 3360, steadily heading south now. I don't expect to see those 100 points drop for now, it'll be more like -20/-30 points daily until buyers step in to bargain hunt.

As for longcheer, I think I made a correct decision to sell. During a bull phase, Longcheer didn't rally while others do. If during a bear phase, Longcheer will do worse. It really did. Longcheer is now at 0.680, compared to yesterday's closing of 0.695. I expect longcheer to drop until 0.66 before buyers step in.

I applied for Foreland fabri-tech IPO. Hope I can get some, it's very hot. It's almost like striking 4D. I bought 35 lots at offer price of $0.21, with an administrative charge of $1. Really like buying 4D. I think it opens on 26th April, with IPO closing at noon today.

Good trading!