Monday, November 26, 2007

Good to juggle my portfolio?

What a roaring start to a bluesy Monday :) STI was up 93 pts (2.8%) to close at 3418 with a volume of 1.68 billion. By powering up so much, it now faces the ema200 days resistance at around 3430. Should it break through the resistance, we could be seeing another road block at ema20 days at 3500. It's important to remember that the lowest we got to in this selldown is around 3300. It's highly significant if STI fell lower than 3300. A very good scenario is if we break free of ema200 days resistance then retrace before powering up to 3500. Too much to hope for? haha :)

Today we see renewed interest in Singpost, with intraday high of 1.17. Flocking to defensive stock? There's a few strategy I might employ to make my portfolio better:

1. This is the most important - Get rid of GK Goh, CSC and Yongnam when the opportunity arise. I'm more worried about GK Goh than the other two. This would free up quite a bit of my capital.

2. I might want to sell off Singpost around 1.20 (to cover commission). Why the sudden U-turn? I want to free up capital to move it towards HSBC. When ncy told me that Goldman Sachs is downgrading HSBC to HKD119 (from the present HKD133.50, I was quite overjoyed actually. Hmm, strange feeling because I remembered clearly in the past that I'll be pissed off as this kind of downgrading of target price might trigger a selloff.

Haha, different mentality this time. If HSBC hits HKD 120, I'll be queuing for sure. HH told me that last time, JP morgan is always downgrading HSBC and it will really trigger a selloff. She'll always collect when that happens, haha :) With HSBC, I can opt for script dividend so the money will be reinvested into the stock instead of taking out and removing the magic of compounding. That's the most impt reason for me to switch from Singpost to HSBC. Another reason is that since it's a foreign stock, it's harder for me to check the live prices from my watchlist daily - this is IMPORTANT as it prevents me from doing stupid things like trading it. Haha :)

I think with these 2 major changes to my portfolio, I'll be reduced to my core holdings with no speculative stocks anymore. I'll be more confident to hold it through the testing period of my portfolio - bear market. A little scared because I've never experienced one before. I've gone through 2006 where any stocks you buy will just jump so much within contra period. I've gone through the craze in IPO stocks where everyone will just jump in and sell off, making a handsome profit.

Let's see how the bear looks like. Coming to your nearest theater in summer 2008 :)

8 comments :

Derek said...

Hi la papillion,

I have read through your blog and you really interesting insight.

I have set up a new site (http://thefinance.sg) to house the articles of various local bloggers.

Can I have your permission to have your articles in my site? Of course, I will credit you with your work and link it back to your blog.

Cheers
Derek

la papillion said...

Hi Derek,

Sure! It's a good idea to put it together, well done derek!

Haha, I like your men's fashion blog :) My kind of dressing :)

Derek said...

La Papillion,

Thanks. I haven't had the time to update my fashion blog. Will do something about it since the festive season is coming.

Can I have a short intro about yourself so that I can post it up in my site (http://thefinance.sg/authors). If you don't mind, I hope to have your email as well.

My email: decarn@gmail.com

Cheers
Derek

musicwhiz said...

Hi la papillion,

Just curious, which companies are in your portfolio ? I know CSC, Yongnam and HSBC are, any others like Swiber etc ? Perhaps you can think of re-balancing your portfolio during this downturn to pick up good bargains in sound companies.

I have never been through a bear market myself, but have heard of it through a colleague. Basically, prices just continue bleeding for a period of 18 to 24 months. It takes a lot of patience and tenacity to put up with it, and most people will be so disillusioned that they quit the market altogether. Speculation will be close to zero, which is the time that value investors step in to buy up large chunks of companies at bargain prices !

So I say, let the bear market come, I am not afraid.

Regards, Musicwhiz

la papillion said...

Derek,

Email sent :)

la papillion said...

Hi musicwhiz,

I put my portfolio up in the blog, on the left column under current portfolio. Hmm, I thought you would have been through a bear cycle before, haha :) I've been asking people around what it is like too, but somethings cannot be described and had to be felt personally.

Since the bear market will be coming soon, I might not want to add in now. I plan to raise my cash holdings for the 'moment of ultimate pessimism' and see if I have the guts to put in my money. In the meantime, I'm reading widely on accountings, valuation techniques and analysis on financial statements. I've got to prepare myself for that moment :)

Haha, let's bully the bear together!

fishman said...

Hey guys!

Very interesting discussion, can't help joining in!

I've not seen a bear too, just read about it in books. Think it's time like this that the hard work for value invetors pay off, provided you still got ammo!

Hey lp, how you know when its the 'moment of ultimate pessimism'? you sound like can see it like that leh! keke

la papillion said...

Hi fishman,

I guess you'll know when it's the peak of pessimism when magazines and newspaper reduced their money section and you see headlines of people burnt in stocks and swear never to enter again. You'll see less and less advertisments about making insane profits and you might see headlines like "death of equities" :)

Should be pretty obvious :)