Tuesday, October 16, 2007

STI down 1.33% to close at 3810...get ready for some rough weather

Market wasn't fantastic today. Maybe I wasn't used to the kind of magnitude after having withdrawn from watching the market for 2 weeks while in reservist. Today STI went down 51.3 points (1.33%) drop to close at 3810 with a volume of 3.35 billion (much larger than yesterday's 2.3 billion).

Two catalysts that could be used to rationalise the drop are:

1. Oil price breached US$85 per barrel

2. FED might not drop rates at the end of Oct after they released their statements yesterday

STI should find support at 3700 (am I too pessimistic? sorry, still no feel for STI). Overall, I think it's good to see STI retracing. My gut feel is that the pending correction is not going to be a big deal, certainly not as big as the subprime selldown we experienced not too long ago. STI had been rising too fast for the past 2 weeks, so it's good for it to slow down a little and let the price consolidate to form a solid base before rallying again. I'm looking at start of Nov till Jan (typical year end rally) with possibly the 4th quarter results as catalyst. Maybe construction contracts could provide the needed stimulus too.

Most of the good charts that I saw yesterday was negated by today's price action. Swiber looked like a double top formation (hopefully not!), Yongnam is channel trending with price just touching the lower trendline (if it breaks it's a bearish sign). Not good at all.

I guess the big winner today is SPC. It rose up 0.650 up to close at 8.800. To think that just a few weeks ago, I thought $6 was expensive! This is one stock that shouldn't go wrong. I should keep a lookout for this when the next market crash happens.

Europe all red (sweden dropped 3%, wonder what's up?) and Dow is opening in another 20 minutes. Not too cheery for tonight huh? Let's see how it goes.