Wednesday, October 31, 2007

2½ hrs to go for FED meeting results! Yongnam book close on 19th Nov, 5pm

As expected before fed meeting, STI closed flat at 3805 (7 points up) with a volume of 2.09 billion. Market was very quiet today. I can feel it because my watchlist looks like my browser hanged up...totally no movement at all.

Lianbeng was up 0.025 to close at 0.660. Being the new market leader in construction, I think the upmove should be indication of renewed interest in construction shares. Most of the construction shares are down though (but being the market leader, it should move first, no?)

Commodities ETF took a hit, it's down by 0.060, probably due to oil price going down (the ETF have 20+% of their weightage on crude oil). Don't know what to make of this as I'm still starting to analyse the whole commodities thingy.

Quite a number of announcements to share:

1. Ferrochina completes Superb team acquisition; and net profit for 3QFY07 increased by 87.7%. I like this stock, so let me analyse more before I jump in. It's one of the largest galvanised steel manufacturers in China, so it can give get a huge market share of its business. Add to the fact that developing China needs lots of steel for their infrastructure, I think this is one train I'll like to hop on to.

2. NOL net profit up 50%, but ytd only increased by 4%. Should see improvement in their results due to high container volumes and increasing freight rates. Looks good :)

3. Straits asia resource acquired Jembayan coal mine in East kalimantan. This is expected to double the Group's annual coal production in 2008. The coal quality is of higher grade and contains less sulphur, so it's actually of a higher quality. I think this should be positive news for straits investors. I am looking to jump in again when the opportunity arises. Still bullish on the general coal demand and prices.

4. Yongnam is going to close book at 5pm, 19th Nov, to determine the provisional alloctment of warrants to shareholders. This means they are going XR on 20th Nov when they open for trading. Any one with shares in the CDP when they announce XR will be entitled to buy the warrants. Of course for those who don't want to invest more into the warrants can trade their 'nil-paid' warrants on the open market before they cease trading. More information should be provided the next 1-2 weeks in the form of OIS (offer information statement). I'll peruse and post more if needed.

Hope IR contracts come out by then, I don't intend to put in more money for yongnam. Call me a short term investor :)

5. Cosco net profit rises by 87% (excludes one off exceptional gain due to disposal of old vessels in 06). All very healthy balance sheet :) Order book is still ballooning :) I want this stock! (may I add, at a reasonable too high)

Tonight at 2:15am (our time), FED is going to announce if they are keeping the rates unchanged or reduce the rate by 25 or 50 basis point. A poll done today indicated 80% think that a 25 basis point cut is likely, the other 20% indicated no change in interest rate. In my opinion, the interest rate reduction had already been priced in. If the cut is 50 basis point, tmr global market tua cheong. 25 basis point - not much effect. If no reduction in interest rate - tmr a sea of red everywhere.

In either case, I'll not be around to monitor anything. Tmr I'm damn busy, so perhaps if the market is poised to rally, I'll probably place a sell queue on some of my holdings. Hmm...which ones? haha, i'll decided tmr, no point thinking now :)

Dow now at +50 pts, not up not down. Everyone waiting for something to happen at 2:15 am :)