Friday, December 07, 2007

Newbies FAQ

Since I kept answering the same few questions time and time again in cna forum, I decided to post it in my blog so that next time I don't have to retype it again. This is what I'll do - i'll collect all the most commonly answered questions about the stock market, then I'll post the answers here. Easier for everyone. Here goes:


(Updated on 4th Feb, 2008)


Summary of questions:

1. What causes the price of a stock to go up or down? How come even though the buy queue is higher than the sell queue, the stock doesn't move up in price?
2. What is the trading hours of Singapore and HK bourse?
3. What actually happens when I buy a stock?
4. What is long? What is short = katek?
5. What is naked short?
6. This short cannot, that short also cannot. Then if market turns bearish, just sit and cry ah? Any other options?
7. What is averaging down?
8. What are bonds, bills, warrants, CFDs?
9. What's XD, CD? Do I get dividends if I buy on XD?
10. What is the x you see just before market opens and after it closes, when looking at the sales and transactions for the day? Married deals?
11. What are right shares? Nil-paid rights?
12. What is force key? I see that option when I'm getting my orders keyed in.
13. I have been using X brokerage firm and now I’m using Y brokerage firm. I bought some shares using X firm, so does the shares that I bought with X be transferred over to Y? If I sell my shares using Y does it constitute a short sell?
14. What are odd lots? Can I sell odd lots?
15. What is contra? (No, it’s not the game)
16. I got a company warrant. How do I exercise the warrants to covert it to shares? (Note: company warrant is not structured warrants)
17. What is pre-open and pre-close?
18. What should I do when I receive the thick annual report every year? Do I have to do anything about it?
19. What are rights warrants?
20. How do I apply for rights? What are the options I have?
21. How is the opening price of a stock determined?
22. Why is it that when I queue to buy at price of $0.50, but when the current price of the stock reaches that, I still haven’t bought my stock yet? Is it because of queuing?
23. What is CE and XE? What is cash distribution?
24. What is BB? I keep seeing people saying BBs are buying/selling.
25. What is shares splitting and what are its implication?




1. What causes the price of a stock to go up or down? How come even though the buy queue is higher than the sell queue, the stock doesn't move up in price?

I'll give an example.

Buying vol | buy price | sell price | sell volume

say initially its 520 | 0.770 | 0.775 | 330

This means that there are currently pple waiting to buy 520 lots at 0.770 and pple waiting to sell 330 lots at 0.775. The key word is waiting, because the buy/sell queue are waiting queue.

If you want to buy 5 lots at 0.770, you join the queue at 0.770, the quotes become

525 | 0.770 | 0.775 | 330

If I want to sell 10 lots at 0.775, i join the sell queue and the quotes become

525 | 0.770 | 0.775 | 340

Notice that up to now, the price didn't move at all. Now if I'm sick of waiting and i'm in a hurry to sell off another 10 lots, i dun sell at the sell price, i sell at the buy price. Immediately i jump the sell queue, quotes become:

515 | 0.770 | 0.775 | 340...price drops to 0.770

Same thing for buying up. If someone is too eager to buy the stock, he wants to get in 10 lots at 0.775 to jump the whole buy queue, here's how the quote look like:

515 | 0.770 | 0.775 | 330.... price increase to 0.775

Basically it's the enthusiasm of buyers to bid higher price that drives the price up, and the desperation of sellers to sell at lower bid that drives price down, not the buy and sell queue.



2. What is the trading hours of Singapore and HK bourse?

Singapore opens at 9 am to 1230pm, break for lunch and resume the afternoon session at 2pm to 5 pm. Hong Kong opens at 10 am to 1230pm, opens again at 230pm to 4 pm. Do take note that if you use most of the 'live' prices for HK stocks, it'll lag by at least 5 to 15 min. Yahoo! finance lags by as much as 30 mins to 1 hr. The livest live price can be found from the following sites:

a. Live HSI charts - This one is good as it even has charts and is detachable

b. Real time HSI forex gold - this one is not real time, but it's not laggy, good enuff for me.

c. HSI stock quotes - this one is straight from the horse's mouth, so to speak. Too laggy for me

The only free HK live price I know from brokerage is from dbs vickers. But it has it own set of problems...



3. What actually happens when I buy a stock?

After you buy a stock, we don't have to pay for it immediately. The day that the stock is purchased is termed T day. We have to pay the stock by T+3 (or T+4, T+5, depending on your brokerage firm or broker). This means that we have to make payment by transaction day plus another 3 market days (market days exclude public holidays and weekends).

For example, if I buy on Thurs, I have to pay on T+3, which is next Tues (usually by evening, but dependent on broker). If payment is not received on end of T+3, the brokerage will sell off your shares. After payment is made, the scripts will be electronically transferred to your central deposit account (CDP). If you have an online password with them, you can check their website and you'll see your shares there. You'll also receive those irritating perforated pieces of paper (two of them!), saying that you made a transaction with your brokerage firm and another saying that the CDP received the shares.



4. What is long? What is short = kateks?

Longing a stock means we buy a stock, wait for the price to move up to sell again to pocket the difference. Shorting a stock means we sell a stock first, wait for the price to move down, then buy it back again to 'cover the short position', thereby pocketing the difference. How come we can do such things - selling something that we dun have?

The reason is because of 'contra'. Basically it just means that it takes some time for the stock you buy or sell to be delivered to your central deposit account (CDP), so if we sell or buy before it's delivered we don't have to pay for anything. Usually contra period is T+3, meaning the day you transacted (T) + another 3 market days. So if I buy a share and sell it all within T+3, I don't have to make any payment and can pocket the difference. Be careful about buying things you can't afford to pay. If you can only buy $1000 worth of stocks and you bust that limit and buy all the stocks your trading limit allows (say $50,000) on contra (meaning that you have no intention to pay and die die have to sell by T+3), you are either skillful or just very optimistic in the face of death.

Shorting, on the other hand, doesn't work on T+3, take note!! We have to cover our position by the end of the day (T+0), otherwise SGX will buy back for you.



5. What is naked short?

Naked short means that you short a counter that you didn't have, AND didn't cover by the end of the day and is subjected to SGX buy back. The procedure is like this

a. You sell short a counter and never cover your position by buying in at the end of the day

b. On T+3, you don't have the scripts in your CDP to deliver to the buyer, so SGX will initiate a buy in for you

c. SGX will buy at 11:30am on T+4 at 2 bids higher than the closing price of T+3 or 11:30am price of T+4, whichever is higher. That is, higher of (closing of T+3 or 11:30am price of T+4) plus another 2 bids. I remember someone saying that the bids will increase every few minutes until someone sells it to SGX. Other penalties may apply.

In other words, you're subjected to the whims of the market and you'll only know the results after 3 or 4 market days. AND DO NOT BUY BACK YOURSELF - YOU'LL JUST BE OPENING ANOTHER POSITION! Good luck to you.



6. This short cannot, that short also cannot. Then if market turns bearish, just sit and cry ah? Any other options?

There are proper ways to short the market. Listed below are the ones I know, but bear in mind that each also have its own risks. It's not within the scope of this faq to discuss.

a. Put warrants

b. CFD - contract for difference

c. Short the market, borrow scripts from SGX to cover your short position . When price drops low enough, buy back the scripts and return to SGX, pocketing the difference.



7. What is averaging down?

This is a method to lower down the average buy price so as to be able to get out of it IF it rebounds at lower price. An example will do the trick.

Suppose I bought a stock, 10 lots at 0.770. The price subsequently tanked and I held on, thinking that it is temporarily. But it tanked to 0.600, a 22% drop in price. For it to rise back to 0.770 (ignore brokerage for simplicity), it has to rise up 28%, which is even harder. So I buy in more to 'average down' my buy in price.

So when it reached 0.600, I bought 10 lots at 0.600...tanked down further
Bought it 5 lots more at 0.550.

My weighted average buy price is 0.658 [ (10x0.770 + 10x0.600 + 5x0.550)/(10+10+5)]. If the price rebound slightly and hit 0.660 (assuming no brokerage), I can break even and sell already, instead of waiting to sell at 0.770.

The risk? You are throwing money into a sinking ship. It might sink and sink and never recover. Do this only if you're sure why the stock is sinking. Otherwise you're just digging deeper in your own grave. Most pple prefer averaging up - if the stock is performing as you expect, then you throw in more funds. Whatever you choose, just know what you're doing and the risks involved.



8. What are bonds, bills, warrants, CFDs? (adapted from veron97, cna forum)

Bond/bills

A debt investment with which the investor loans money to an entity (company or government) that borrows the funds for a defined period of time at a specified interest rate.

The indebted entity issues investors a certificate, or bond, that states the interest rate (coupon rate) that will be paid and when the loaned funds are to be returned (maturity date). Interest on bonds is usually paid every six months (semiannually). The main types of bonds are the corporate bond, the municipal bond, the Treasury bond, the Treasury note, the Treasury bill and the zero-coupon bond.

The higher rate of return the bond offers, the more risky the investment. There have been instances of companies failing to pay back the bond (default), so, to entice investors, most corporate bonds will offer a higher return than a government bond. It is important for investors to research a bond just as they would a stock or mutual fund. The bond rating will help in deciphering the default risk.

A bill is just a shorter term version of bonds. In Singapore, bill is anything less than or equal to 1 yr while bonds are more than 1 yr, like 1,2,5,7,15 and 20yr bonds.
Check this website out to find the difference in prices and yields.

Warrant

A derivative security that gives the holder the right to purchase securities (usually equity) from the issuer at a specific price within a certain time frame. Warrants are often included in a new debt issue as a "sweetener" to entice investors.

The main difference between warrants and call options is that warrants are issued and guaranteed by the company, whereas options are exchange instruments and are not issued by the company. Also, the lifetime of a warrant is often measured in years, while the lifetime of a typical option is measured in months.

Basically, call warrants means that you want the price of the underlying to go up. If the underlying goes up, the call warrants will also rise in price. Put warrants means you want the price of the underlying to go down and it will rise in price if the underlying goes down. Can read this website for more information on the basic of warrants e.g. IV, delta, strike, settlement, expiry.

Contract For Differences - CFD

An arrangement made in a futures contract whereby differences in settlement are made through cash payments, rather than the delivery of physical goods or securities.

This is generally an easier method of settlement because losses and gains are paid in cash. CFDs provide investors with the all the benefits and risks of owning a security without actually owning it.



9. What's XD, CD? Do I get dividends if I buy on XD?

When a stock wants to give dividend, it will put a CD - cum dividend remark. This means anyone who buys now or owns the stock already, will be entitled to get dividends by the time the stock closes its book. XD stands for ex-dividend. If you buy the stocks on XD, it will be too late to reach the registrar so your name will not be in the company's book - so you'll not be entitled to dividends. To make it really simple:

a. If you buy on or before CD, you'll get dividends

b. If you sell on or before CD, you won't get dividneds

c. If you buy on or after XD, you won't get dividends (the seller gets it)

d. If you sell on or after XD, you'll get dividends (the buyer won't get it)

Don't worry about record date or book closure date, it's none of our concern. Just worry about CD/XD will do. Oh, and of cos the payment date.



10. What is the x you see just before market opens and after it closes, when looking at the sales and transactions for the day? Married deals?

The x at the opening and closing is the pre-open and pre-close matching respectively.

For pre-opening, it's basically for those orders that are keyed in before the market is opened AND are transacted. What happens is that there are buyers who bid for a price and sellers who ask for a price. There is some formula to calculate these two bid/ask price, and this calculated price is the opening price of the stock. If there are a total of 10,000 buyers and sellers matched, then you'll see 8:59 x 10,000.

Same thing for pre-close matching, but this time the calculated price is actually the closing price of the stock.

Do not mistake the x when market is open for trading for pre-close/open matching, they are not. These x are married deals, a different ball game altogether. Married deals are private deals with a willing buyer and seller, so the price are decided between the two parties and are independent of the bid/ask quotes you see currently on the screen. Married deals are important, esp if the volume for the transactions are huge - usually indicates to me that institutional buyers are buying/selling.



11. What are rights shares? Nil paid rights?

Cash-strapped companies can turn to rights issues to raise money when they really need it. In these rights offerings, companies grant shareholders a chance to buy new shares at a discount to the current trading price. Let's look at how rights issue work, and what they mean for all shareholders.

Defining a Rights Issue and Why It's Used

A rights issue is an invitation to existing shareholders to purchase additional new shares in the company. More specifically, this type of issue gives existing shareholders securities called "rights", which, well, give the shareholders the right to purchase new shares at a discount to the market price on a stated future date. The company is giving shareholders a chance to increase their exposure to the stock at a discount price.

But until the date at which the new shares can be purchased, shareholders may trade the rights on the market the same way they would trade ordinary shares. The rights issued to a shareholder have a value, thus compensating current shareholders for the future dilution of their existing shares' value.

Troubled companies typically use rights issues to pay down debt, especially when they are unable to borrow more money. But not all companies that pursue rights offerings are shaky. Some with clean balance sheets use them to fund acquisitions and growth strategies. For reassurance that it will raise the finances, a company will usually, but not always, have its rights issue underwritten by an investment bank.

How Rights Issues Work

So, how do rights issues work? The best way to explain is through an example.

Let's say you own 1,000 shares in Wobble Telecom, each of which is worth $5.50. The company is in a bit of financial trouble and sorely needs to raise cash to cover its debt obligations. Wobble therefore announces a rights offering, in which it plans to raise $30 million by issuing 10 million shares to existing investors at a price of $3 each. But this issue is a three-for-10 rights issue. In other words, for every 10 shares you hold, Wobble is offering you another three at a deeply discounted price of $3. This price is 45% less than the $5.50 price at which Wobble stock trades.

As a shareholder, you essentially have three options when considering what to do in response to the rights issue. You can (1) subscribe to the rights issue in full, (2) ignore your rights or (3) sell the rights to someone else. Here we look how to pursue each option, and the possible outcomes.

1. Take up the rights to purchase in full
To take advantage of the rights issue in full, you would need to spend $3 for every Wobble share that you are entitled to under the issue. As you hold 1,000 shares, you can buy up to 300 new shares (three shares for every 10 you already own) at this discounted price of $3, giving a total price of $900.

However, while the discount on the newly issued shares is 45%, it will not stay there. The market price of Wobble shares will not be able to stay at $5.50 after the rights issue is complete. The value of each share will be diluted as a result of the increased number of shares issued. To see if the rights issue does in fact give a material discount, you need to estimate how much Wobble's share price will be diluted.

In estimating this dilution, remember that you can never know for certain the future value of your expanded holding of the shares, since it can be affected by any number of business and market factors. But the theoretical share price that will result after the rights issue is complete - which is the ex-rights share price - is possible to calculate. This price is found by dividing the total price you will have paid for all your Wobble shares by the total number of shares you will own. This is calculated as follows:

1,000 existing shares at $5.50 $5,500
300 news shares for cash at $3 $900
Value of 1,300 shares $6,400
Ex-rights value per share $4.92 ($6,400.00/1,300 shares)

So, in theory, as a result of the introduction of new shares at the deeply discounted price, the value of each of your existing shares will decline from $5.50 to $4.92. But remember, the loss on your existing shareholding is offset exactly by the gain in share value on the new rights: the new shares cost you $3, but they have a market value of $4.92. These new shares are taxed in the same year as you purchased the original shares, and carried forward to count as investment income, but there is no interest or other tax penalties charged on this carried-forward, taxable investment income.

2. Ignore the rights issue
You may not have the $900 to purchase the additional 300 shares at $3 each, so you can always let your rights expire. But this is not normally recommended. If you choose to do nothing, your shareholding will be diluted thanks to the extra shares issued.

3 Sell your rights to other investors
In some cases, rights are not transferable. These are known as "non-renounceable rights". But in most cases, your rights allow you to decide whether you want to take up the option to buy the shares or sell your rights to other investors or to the underwriter. Rights that can be traded are called "renounceable rights", and after they have been traded, the rights are known as "nil-paid rights".

To determine how much you may gain by selling the rights, you need to estimate a value on the nil-paid rights ahead of time. Again, a precise number is difficult, but you can get a rough value by taking the value of ex-rights price and subtracting the rights issue price. So, at the adjusted ex-rights price of $4.92 less $3, your nil-paid rights are worth $1.92 per share. Selling these rights will create a capital gain for you.

Be Warned

It is awfully easy for investors to get tempted by the prospect of buying discounted shares with a rights issue. But it is not always a certainty that you are getting a bargain. But besides knowing the ex-rights share price, you need to know the purpose of the additional funding before accepting or rejecting a rights issue. Be sure to look for a compelling explanation of why the rights issue and share dilution are needed as part of the recovery plan. Sure, a rights issue can offer a quick fix for a troubled balance sheet, but that doesn't necessarily mean management will address the underlying problems that weakened the balance sheet in the first place. Shareholders should be cautious.



12. What is force key? I see that option when I'm getting my orders keyed in.

When buying or selling, you can only key in within 6 bids of the current price. Different price range have different bid size.

So, if a stock is currently trading at say 1.50, you can only sell up to 1.56 or buy up to 1.44 (within 6 bids, each bid being 1 cent). If you need to go beyond, you need to check the 'force-key' option. Some brokerage firm have free force keys, some are subscription based.

Take note that on 24th Dec 2007, SGX will revise a new minimum bids with increased forced key orders. The bid size is reduced according to this:

For stocks:
1. Below S$1, bid size is 0.005
2. S$1 - S$9.99, bid size is 0.01
3. S$10 and above, bid size is 0.02
4. Forced key orders for stocks is +/- 10 bids.

For all ETF
1. Bid size is 0.01 or 0.001 as determined by SGX-ST
2. Forced key order is +/- 30 bids


13. I have been using X brokerage firm and now I’m using Y brokerage firm. I bought some shares using X firm, so does the shares that I bought with X be transferred over to Y? If I sell my shares using Y does it constitute a short sell?

The answer depends very much on whether the shares you bought with X firm are deposited in the central depository (CDP). It will be, after you made payment by T+3 days. If that is the case, the shares you bought have nothing to do with X firm anymore, so you can very well sell the shares using Y firm or any other firms. It will not be a short sell.

If you buy shares using X firm, but within T+3 you sell it using Y firm, then you have an open position with X and a short position with Y. You still need to pay for your shares plus brokerage with X before the shares will be transferred over to CDP. In the meantime, you have to cover you short position with Y by buying back within the same day of transaction, otherwise you will be subjected to SGX buy back.

If you buy shares with X firm, paid for it by say T+1, then sell it by T+2 using Y firm, then I’m also confused! To be sure, check CDP website to ensure that the shares you paid for are already deposited inside before selling using Y firm. Life’s too bland for you? haha

Do yourself a favour, keep a good transaction record of which shares you buy, T+3 payment date and with which brokerage firm.



14. What are odd lots? Can I sell odd lots?

Usually, each lot size in SGX shares consists of 1000 shares. There are some exceptions, for example the STI ETF 100 shares, you can buy at 100 shares per lot instead of the usual 1000 shares per lot. How do we get odd lots? Usually through corporate actions like rights or entitlement, script dividend. For simplification, I assume all shares have a lot size of 1000 shares here.

Since you can only buy or sell a minimum of l lot, there is some problem if you want to buy/sell less than 1 lot, like 800 shares. These are called odd lots, and they can’t be transacted in the normal markets.

I know that for poems, there is a unit shares market – specifically used to buy/sell odd lots. But take note – due to the liquidity (or rather the lack of), expect to sell your odd lots below market price and buy odd lots (to top up to 1 full lot) at a discount. This mean you can buy 1 share of DBS at $20 plus dollars if you so wished.



15. What is contra? (No, it’s not the game)

When you buy a stock, you normally have to pay on T+3. T+3 means that transaction date + 3 more market days (public holidays, sat, sun not counted as market days).

E.g. If I buy on Thurs, T+3 is actually next Tues.

If I managed to sell off the stock I bought before T+3, that means that I don't have to pay any capital upfront and get the difference between the price I bought and the price I sold. This is called contra.

Usually contra are for short term traders, who goes in and out within the T+3 days. Those who contra all the time will also whack huge lots (more than what they can afford to pay) since they don't have to really pay for the stocks upfront and they are going to sell off before the T+3 date, regardless of profit or loss.

Just be careful if you buy more than what you can afford...If the stock went down, you might have to hold or sell at a loss. Not advisable, unless you're a good chart reader who knows when a stock can make spectacular gains all within T+3.



16. I got a company warrant. How do I exercise the warrants to covert it to shares? (Note: company warrant is not structured warrants)

Courtesy of lonewolf from cna forum, who did the sleuthing.


Q. What shall I do when I want to exercise my warrants?
A. When exercising your warrants, you must submit the following to the Warrant Agent:

1. Your latest statement showing the number of warrants you have in your securities account. This can be obtained from The Central Depository (Pte) Ltd or via CDP Internet Access if you have applied and gotten an I-PIN.

2. The exercise notice, a copy of which can be obtained from the Warrant Agent. You need to sign the notice and provide the following details:
a. your name
b. address
c. CDP securities account number
d. NRIC number
e. no of warrants converted *
f. no of shares subscribed *

* The number of shares subscribed for every warrant held depends on the conversion ratio.

3. The subscription amount in the form of a cashier's order made payable to the issuer.

The Warrant Agent will inform CDP of your exercise notice after it has verified your particulars. This date is known as the Lodgement Date (L).

Q. How will I know who the Warrant Agent is?
A. Pulses, a monthly publication by Singapore Exchange, publishes a list of warrants traded and their respective Warrant Agents. You may also check with the company which issued the warrants.

Q. When will the warrants be debited from my account?
A. CDP will debit the warrants from your securities account immediately after notification from the Warrant Agent that they have earmarked the warrants and that your exercise notice is in order.

You cannot sell the warrants once you have exercised them.

Q. How long will CDP take to credit my account with the new shares arising from the exercise of my warrants?
A. After receiving the exercise notice, CDP will credit the shares into the 'Available' balance. The converted shares will be credited to the 'Free' balance of your securities account five market days after Lodgement Date. This is provided the Warrant Agent has sent the new share certificates to CDP and the new shares have been approved for listing.

CDP will notify you in writing after your account has been credited.

Q. When can I sell the converted shares?
A. You may sell your converted shares only after receiving CDP's notification, or when your shares are in the Free balance of your securities account.

If you sell before the shares are in your account, you risk being bought-in. To meet your delivery obligation, the Exchange will buy-in the shares from the market if you do not have them in your account by due date. You will have to pay for the difference between your sale price and the buy-in price, and all other related charges.

Q. I have just sent in my exercise notice to convert my warrants to shares and there is an entitlements distribution. Will I be eligible for the entitlements distribution?
A. Whether you are eligible for the entitlements will depend on how the listed company had defined the entitlements date. Listed companies can set the entitlements date to be either on Lodgement Date (L) or the day after Lodgement Date (L + 1).

Consequently, if your warrants are converted on L, which happens to fall on Books Closure Date and the listed company had defined entitlements date as L, then you will receive the entitlements.

However, if you have converted the warrants on L, which happens to fall on Books Closure Date and the entitlements date had been set as L+1, then you will not receive the entitlements.

Q. What happens if there is a warrant issue or entitlement for the shares I have in my CPF Investment Account?
A. If the warrant entitlement comes free, the warrants can be left in your CPF Investment Account for you to sell or convert to shares with your CPF funds before the expiry date.

However, if you have to pay for the warrant entitlement, i.e. you have to subscribe for the warrants, you will not be able to use your CPF savings to do so. In this case, you can:
1. provide your CPF Agent Bank with the cash to subscribe for the warrants on your behalf; or
2. transfer the right to subscribe for the warrants from your CPF Investment Account to your CDP Securities Account before you subscribe in cash.

However, if you want to sell your rights instead of subscribing for the warrants, you may sell your rights in the same manner as you sell your shares purchased with your CPF savings.

Q. What happens if I do not sell or exercise my warrants by the expiry date?
A. On expiry date, warrants become worthless and cannot be exercised into new shares.

Q. I am still holding the physical warrant certificates although the company's shares and warrants are already traded scripless. How do I exercise the warrants?
A. The exercise procedure is similar to that for the first question. However, you will have to surrender your warrant certificates to the Warrant Agent.

If you wish to have the new shares credited directly to your CDP securities account, you will have to fill in your securities account number in the exercise notice.

Q. How do I sell my new shares if I have opted to receive physical certificates after exercising the warrants?
A. Physical share certificates cannot be used to settle the sale of your new shares. You must first deposit the certificates with CDP. You need to pay a deposit fee of S$10 (excluding GST). Payment may be made in cash, or by cheque made in favour of "The Central Depository (Pte) Limited".

After receiving your share certificates, CDP will send them to the share registrar to have them transferred and registered in CDP's name before they can be credited to your account. The whole process takes 17 market days; 15 days for the registrar to transfer and register, and two days for CDP to credit your account.

You may sell your converted shares only after receiving CDP's notification, or when your shares are in the 'Free' balance of your securities account.

Q. How can I check the expiry dates for warrants?
A. The trading name of the warrant provides the expiry date. It appears in a year-month-day format. For example, CSC W050427 indicates that the warrant expires on 27 April 2005.



17. What is pre-open and pre-close?

'Pre-Open' Routine
It is a 30-minute session before regular trading starts at 0900 hrs. It comprises the 'Pre-Open Period' and the 'Non-Cancel Period'.

During the 'Pre-Open Period' (0830 to 0859 hrs), buy and sell orders can be entered, amended or withdrawn. They will not be matched and executed during this period. The 'Non-Cancel Period' is between 0859 to 0900 hrs, during which input, amendment and withdrawal of orders are not permitted. Orders that are matched are executed at a single computed price, which will be the same as or better than the price at which the orders are entered. This computed price shall be the opening price for the day. Unmatched orders will be carried forward into the regular trading session.

'Pre-close' Routine
At 1700 hrs, all unmatched orders are carried forward to the Pre-Close Routine, which runs for 6 minutes and consists of a 'Pre-Close Period' and a 'Non-Cancel Period'.

Orders can be entered, amended or cancelled during the 'Pre-Close Period' (1700 to 1705 hrs). During the 'Non-Cancel Period' (1705 to 1706 hrs), input, amendment and withdrawal of orders are not permitted. Orders that can be matched are executed at a closing price computed for the day, while unmatched orders will become void.



18. What should I do when I receive the thick annual report every year? Do I have to do anything about it?

The thick annual report consists of a few important information that any serious investors need to pay attention to. Firstly, it gives a snapshot of how well the company is doing in that financial year if you look at their financial statements. Secondly, the chairman/CEO will have give his/her message to shareholders, detailing the next year’s direction, a summary of the company’s performance and generally what to expect in the future. Lastly, there will also details of where and when the annual general meeting (AGM) for the company is taking place. The AGM is a meeting where shareholders and the directors will meet once each year to pass resolutions regarding the company. Examples of such resolutions include approval of director’s fee, re-election of directors, approval of dividend payout, rights issues, etc.

You can choose not to go to the AGM and missed communicating directly with the directors (and the free food) and instead appoint a proxy to vote for you on your behalf. OR you can totally choose to ignore the AGM.



19. What are rights warrants?

In addition to issue rights shares, a company may instead choose to issue rights warrants. Somewhat similar to right shares, rights warrants give the shareholders an opportunity to subscribe to rights that will be converted to company warrants upon ceasing of nil-paid rights trading. These company warrants give the holders the right to convert the warrants to ordinary shares at some point in the future (before the expiry of the warrants) by exercising them.

This is quite different from rights shares. Subscription to rights shares and subsequent ceasing of nil-paid rights converts the rights to ordinary shares immediately, whereas rights warrants are converted to company warrants (so you can choose when to convert to ordinary shares anytime before expiry of the warrants). The benefits of the warrants is thus this – you can save capital that would be otherwise locked up as warrants are leveraged derivatives, so the locked up capital is a fraction of that of ordinary shares. If the company is doing well, the price of the warrants will rise and you might choose to sell it without exercising it. Or if you believe in the long term prospects of the company, you can choose to exercise your warrants by converting it to ordinary shares.

To find out how to exercise warrants, look for the relevant questions in this faq.

------------------------
Paul (see comments) mentioned that there are some warrants that can only be converted on a specified date, an example of which is TechOil@GaeW101126. As always, it's better to check the OIS that comes together with the rights issue for more information that might not be applicable for others.



20. How do I apply for rights? What are the options I have?

Okay, you received a bombshell in the form of rights issue and you don’t know what to do despite reading the thick OIS (offer information statement) mailed to you. You panicked.

If you flip the OIS and look for the section under “Procedures for acceptance, payment and excess applications by entitled depositors” under the Appendix section, you can see that it’s all spelt out clearly for all the possible cases you can imagine.

I’m only going to go through the basics. There are two main ways to subscribe for your rights:

a. acceptance and application by ATM of a participating bank

b. acceptance and application by CDP

First before choosing either options, look at the mailed Form A - white form (ARE for rights shares) or green form (WEWAF for rights warrants). Pay attention to the number of rights shares/warrants provisionally allocated – that is the amount that you are allocated, so you can choose to take it all up, partially, not at all and/or apply for excess. Find out how much you need to pay for and how much you need to pay if you want the excess rights.

If you go by ATM, it’s the easier option. Just go to the ATM screen, click on other transactions, then look for something like “ESA – IPO applications”, then find the company that is relevant. You’ll be guided to type in the amount of rights that you wish to accept out of the allocated (e.g you may be provisionally allocated 5000 rights but may want to accept only 2000), plus another separate screen where you’ll be guided to type how many excess rights you want to subscribe. Then you’ll come to a screen where they will tell you how much you have to pay. Make sure this screen you check carefully before pressing. I know for DBS you need to pay a service charge of $2.00, not so sure of other banks.

If you applied through ATM, then do not send any forms! It’s done – just wait for them to mail you how many excess rights you’ve successfully got and how much you applied for.

If you’re going through application by CDP, then you have to fill form A (the coloured forms). There’ll be instructions to tell you how to fill but I’ll run through a little. First, delete away the I/We* and my/our* that you see accordingly. Then look under Registration – and fill in quantity (the number of rights shares/warrants) you accepted, calculate and fill in the amount payable to CDP (multiply the quantity by issue price per share/warrant). Fill in the number of excess rights you wish to apply and repeat, total it up and sign below.

Next go to the bank to get a cashier’s order or banker’s draft (it’s just a cheque that is issued by the bank – you have to pay the bank a certain fee in addition to the amount for their services) with the following written – “CDP – XYZ RIGHTS ISSUE ACCOUNT” and crossed “NOT NEGOTIABLE, A/C PAYEE ONLY”. On the reverse side, write your name and your securities account number. Finally send the banker’s draft/cashier’s order and the form A to the enclosed envelope mailed to you. Affix your own stamp!



21. How is the opening price of a stock determined?

(from ccloh of cna forum)

This is done by matching the highest bid price and quantity with the lowest ask price and quantity until a common price is met. For example:

BUY
----
100,000 1.10
90,000 1.09
80,000 1.08
70,000 1.07
60,000 1.06
50,000 1.05
40,000 1.04
30,000 1.03
20,000 1.02
10,000 1.01

SELL
------
10,000 1.00
20,000 1.01
30,000 1.02
40,000 1.03
50,000 1.04
60,000 1.05
70,000 1.06
80,000 1.07
90,000 1.08
100,000 1.09
200,000 1.10
300,000 1.11
400,000 1.12

the 100,000 @ 1.10 BUY will match with 10,000 @ 1.00, 20,000 @ 1.01, 30,000 @ 1.02, 40,000 @ 1.03 from the SELL

the 90,000 @ 1.09 BUY will match with 50,000 @ 1.04, 40,000 @ 1.05 from the SELL

the 80,000 @ 1.08 BUY will match with 20,000 @ 1.05, 70,000 @ 1.06 from the SELL

Finally 70,000 @ 1.07 BUY will match with 10,000 @ 1.06, 60,000@ 1.07 from the SELL

Hence, the opening price will be 1.07, with the buy queue of 60,000 @ 1.06 and the sell queue of 20,000 @ 1.07




22. Why is it that when I queue to buy at price of $0.50, but when the current price of the stock reaches that, I still haven’t bought my stock yet? Is it because of queuing?

It’s best to give an example of how the queuing works.

Say for company A, you'll see the quotes as
B vol, Buy price, sell price, sell vol
10, 0.775, 0.780, 12

You queue to sell at 0.780, 5 lots. You'll see the quotes as
10, 0.775, 0.780, 17

I want to buy 2 lots at 0.775, the quotes become
12, 0.775, 0.780, 17

Basically you join the queue to sell at 0.780 while i join the queue to buy at 0.775. Let's say you're impatient and wanted to sell immediately. So you sell another 5 lots at 0.775. The quotes become
7, 0.775, 0.780, 17

TAKE NOTE: I didn't buy anything as my queue is not up. Unless another seller sells at 0.75, 6 lots - i'll get 1 lot (order partially filled). If sells at 0.75 for 7 lots - i'll get 2 lot (order fully filled).

Same thing goes for buying. If I can't wait, I'll just hit 2 lots at 0.780. THe quotes change from
12, 0.775, 0.780, 17 to

12, 0.775, 0.780, 15

Did you manage to sell? No, unless someone buy up 0.780 for another 15 lots, then your order will be fully filled.



23. What is CE and XE? What is cash distribution?

CE means cum-entitlement. This means that the company is going to distribute cash to shareholders as a result of:

a. Delisting – so all the shares held by shareholders will be ‘bought’ back by them with the cash returned to the shareholders

b. Shares cancellation – this is to reduce the number of shares outstanding. They will announce a ratio, say 1 out of every 12 shares will be cancelled at $0.50. So, if you’re holding 6000 shares, 500 shares will be cancelled so you’ll get back $250 (500 x 0.50) with 5500 shares remaining (6000 – 500).

To qualify for entitlement, you need to have shares before or on CE. This means that if the stock went XE (ex-entitlement) and you went to buy it, you won’t get the cash distribution due to the entitlement.


24. What is BB? I keep seeing people saying BBs are buying/selling.

BB stands for a lot of things - chng kay, big boys, big brothers etc. Basically they refer to institutional players like fund managers, brokerage house like JP morgan, Merrill lynch, hedge funds and others. They are the ones who possess the will and the clout to move the markets that retailers investors like us can't. They are able to do a lot of things to the stocks - drive it up, bring it down, issue reports to buy but sell it etc. Basically, you wouldn't want to bet the other direction from what the BBs are doing - it's suicidal.


25. What is shares splitting and what are its implication?

All listed companies have a fixed number of shares outstanding. A shares split is when the company increased the number of shares outstanding by issuing more shares to current shareholders. For example, a 2-for-1 split means that a company initially having 30 million shares will end up having 60 million shares.

There is an ex-date and a record date, which are duly announced beforehand. Normally, the current shareholders will receive the split shares a day after the record date but it is more advisable to check with CDP to confirm that.

The most direct implication is that the value of the company per share will be diluted. Price per share and key ratios like earnings per share (EPS) will also be changed. Obviously the number of shares outstanding and the par value of each shares will be affected. What will not be changed is the accounts as well as the capital structure of the company (same market capitalization)

For example, company A has 10 million issued ordinary shares @ par value of $0.50 each (Capital = 5 million). After splitting, it will have 20 million of issued ordinary shares @ par value of $0.25 each (capital is still 5 million). Hence, there will be no change in the capital structure of the company.

So why do companies do that?

1. Sometimes the share prices of the companies have risen too high for retail investors to participate, so a shares splitting is good to lower the price per share to entice investors to jump in.

Since many small investors think the stock is now more affordable and buy the stock, they end up boosting demand and drive up prices. Another reason for the price increase is that a stock split provides a signal to the market that the company's share price has been increasing and people assume this growth will continue in the future, and again, lift demand and prices. For a good example, look at Chinafish.

2. Shares splitting is good for illiquid stocks with very low floating shares. This can affect the reflection of the company. Basically it's to increase the liquidity of the company. For an example, look at Ezion.

(Courtesy of Jeng)

Thoughts on Sesdaq and construction index

Just sharing some thoughts about sesdaq and construction index. Looks set to move :)





Decided to put in pac andes chart too:

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Lian Beng won contract? Not confirmed yet

STI went down 7 pts to close at 3552 with a volume of 2.3 billion. It's damn kelong, STI was up around 30 to 40 pts (1%) until the last few minutes before market close, it starts to tank down. Haha, profit taking at last minute? Strange action.

Construction stocks got a bit excited today, possibly by news that Koh brothers and lian beng had won a contract awarded by Sands IR. However, later announcement pointed out that both companies wished to clarify that they have submitted a tender together. The results of the tender is not known yet. Lian beng went up 10% today, I wonder what will speculators think of this tmr.

Just sharing swiber's chart:


Glad to see yn and csc going up :) I hope it reaches my tp soon, can't wait to dump it soon, haha! Dow futures +19 now. Bush is going to talk later about his plans to save all of us from the subprime crisis. Haha, see what he has to say :)

TA charts for CSC, YN and SP

Some late night posting on some of my counters. After taking a break on TA, now getting back to it is so refreshing :)







Dow is burning hot now, up nearly 200 pts now. Suddenly doom and gloom becomes jolly and rally. Aah, the vicissitudes of the stock market.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

My investment compass found a direction!

STI was very strong today, rising up 32 points (0.91%) to close at 3560 with a high volume of 2.33 billion. The volume is the thing that shocks me, because it's been quite a long time since I last saw this kind of figures. Funds are buying into stocks, possibly to gear up their portfolio for the coming year, starting the traditional christmas rally.

A lot of midcaps and pennies moved up today. Construction did very well today, closing up a lot to prices seldom seen in the past few weeks. After the contract awarded to BBR, it seems like there is an increased sentiment towards these stocks.

Had a wonderful session chatting with HH today. This is my action plan to act on what had been discussed today:

1. Focus on fundamental analysis. Time to set up a system to eliminate lousy stocks before going into an in depth analysis of them. Try to select an industry to focus on instead of shotgunning every sector - there's simply too much things to read.

2. Select a few core stocks - these are stocks that will last through the good times and bad times. A large % of the capital will be into these stocks, while the rest are 'play' funds. 'Play' funds should not constitute a huge percentage, no matter how attractive it looks. Profits generated from the play fund will be channeled straight back into core stocks.

3. Aim high! I WANT to own some shares of Bershire hathaway! I WANT to live on the interest of my interest of my capital!

4. I want to learn all these by next year - big words I know - but I'll try. It's time to be focussed on what I need to know and find my direction. Now. Not later.

DJ on fire...100 over pts right now.

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Technical analysis - Triangle patterns

Since charlesming wanted to find out more about triangles, I'll talk a little about it. I'll admit honestly that I'm not very good in technical analysis, and I just know enough to get by. My kind of TA is functional for me only, haha :)

Basically what's a triangle? According to stockcharts.com, these are continuation patterns. Continuation pattern are formed after a trend is established, but instead of moving up all the way, the price goes up and down in a certain fashion, consolidating in lower volume. When a certain breakout price is breached, the stock moves in a direction based on the continuation pattern seen. There is also a price objective for these types of pattern, but the target price (tp) shouldn't be taken literally.

To be able to see triangle patterns, one must be able to draw support lines and resistance lines. I'm not talking about those horizontal ones, i'm talking about those trendlines which are oblique. A triangle pattern is just a pattern that you'll see if you extend these two lines until a point where they meet.

There are 3 types of triangle patterns:

1. Ascending triangle - this is where we have a horizontal resistance line above and a positive sloping support line below. The price goes up and down between these two lines until a point where a decision has to be made - usually the price will break the resistance line and have upside bias.

Below are some examples of ascending triangle. Pay attention to Swiber - a ascending triangle that failed.




2. Descending triangle - this is where we have a horizontal support line below and a negative sloping resistance line on top. Again the price goes in between the 2 trendlines until a point where a decision has to be made - usually the price will move down with a downside bias.



3. Symmetrical triangle - this is where there is a positive sloping support line and a negative sloping resistance line. Neither bullish nor bearish - it depends on other indicators as it could move up or down.



The following are keys points of the triangle formation:

1. The price need to be within the two trendlines. Small whipsaw is okay though, have to use judgment. Need to see at least 2 points touching the resistance line and at least 2 points touching the support line. If evenly spread out, is even better.

2. The other thing is that if the volume is trending down while the price is inside the triangle, it adds more weight that the pattern is really a triangle formation. Volume, if it surges after breaching the breakout price, will double confirm the triangle pattern.

3. Breakout price for all triangles follow these few guidelines:

a. Price moving above resistance line is bullish sign for all triangles, even for bearish descending triangle. Adds more weight if volume surges while breaking out

b. Price moving below supporting line is bearish, even for bullish ascending triangle. Same thing for volume.

It's important to take note that while a certain pattern can have bullish tendencies, it will only be true if it breaks above the resistance line. Otherwise, it's very bearish. Same thing for patterns with bearish tendencies.

STI flattish, up 6.31 pts

Today, STI went up 6.31 pts (0.18%) to close at 3527, with a very low volume of only 1.38 billion. Dow closed down 55 pts so in the morning, I had expected STI to plunge, maybe to test the new-found resistance turned support. But the most it did was to touch 3500 and came bouncing back, especially after HSI opened at 10am.

There are some things to be happy about, and some things to worry about. First of all, Dow and STI is becoming less volatile. In the past few weeks before this, both are moving up and down violently, sometimes up to 2%. To see both closing at this small volatility is to see a storm calming down to a light drizzle, a welcomed change indeed. This is something to be happy about.

What I'm worried about is that while STI is climbing steadily, the volume keeps decreasing. This shouldn't be what is happening in a bull market. In such a market, rally is accompanied by surging volume while declines are accompanied by decreasing volume. We all need to be careful when volume is clearly diverging from the rising STI. This is a fool's rally.

An announcement to share:

1. BBR announced that it had won a contract awarded by URA to construct a common service tunnel with a contract sum of S$189,600,000 and lasting for 40 mths, ending on sept 2010. Hello, S$189 million contract is not a small sum, how come nobody 'knew' it before the news are announced? BBR closed flat at 0.080 today. Strange huh? haha, looks like the news didn't translate into action for BBR.

Dow's future is -74 pts now.

Fundamental analysis on Popular

Introduction

Popular has this big vision of being the Edu-Channel of East Asia. With this vision in sight, they are making inroads into China, notably Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. This is besides their usual operating position in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and Canada.

Popular had been around for a long time, and they celebrated their 80th anniversary in 2004, having been listed in SGX since 1997. They have 3 branches of growth – retail and distribution, publishing/e-learning and their new business segment - property. Publishing is their key contributor to their bottom line. Very recently, they are also going into property, a whole new business segment through their new subsidiary, Popular Land Pte Ltd.

Popular to me is quite a recognized brand name at least in Singapore. I’m quite in tune with the education scene in Singapore so I’m in a good position to know. A lot of students have this popular card membership that entitles them to have discounts of 10%. It’s a paid subscription and offers discounts to other places like restaurants, optic shops etc. And boy do they shop – pens, correction tapes, exercise books and the most essential – assessment books and ten-year series (affectionately called TYS for short). The TYS are so popular that towards the end of the year around Sept/Oct, the shelves are snapped clean of them. Whether this can translate into profits in their coffers is another thing altogether, of course.

I’m going to break up my analysis on Popular into different segments – economic moat, growth, profitability, financial health, risks/bear case and their management. If I’m still up to it, I might want to do a DCF or DDM to arrive at some numerical valuation of the company.

Economic moat

It is important to think about whether Popular has a economic moat around it that prevents other competitors from snatching away its earnings and growth. It appears that Popular does have a certain moat around it, being one of the major publishers in its homeground – Singapore and Malaysia. It is fast gaining a foothold in the textbook market in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but more of that later. To look for evidence of economic moat, let’s take a look at how profitable Popular had been in the past by analyzing free cash flow, margins, ROE and ROA.


From 2003 to 2007, Popular managed to turn 12.7% (5 year average) of its turnover into free cash flow – that is cash flow that is not used for capital expenditures. This means that every $100 of goods sold, Popular managed to generate $12.70 of cash. I do not know what is the figure for its competitors, but I think this is pretty okay to me. Take note this free cash flow mean the cash can be used for anything - paying dividends, retained earnings - and all those capital expenditures needed for business had been accounted for already.

It’s quite something that Popular had never had a negative year, even though STI did had a rough patch around 1999 and 2003, but that’s not good enough for investors. Net margin shows a decreasing trend from 1999 till 2007; with a 9 year average of 4.3% - hmm, not a good sign of a strong economic moat. Net margins at 4.3% average means out of $100, Popular will get $4.30 as their net profit. Is that a little low? I need to find out about the margins in the publishing and retail sector to know if this is comfortable. ROE and ROA also shows a similar downtrend through the years. This is a little disturbing to me as it seems that market forces is gnawing at the profit margin of Popular.

(In case you're wondering why there's a spike in 2006 and 2004 - it's due to a one-off capital gain. That will make the graph more in line with the trend)

I wonder what is the competitive advantage of Popular over other publishers. I mean there are so many smaller publishers so why go to Popular? The answer could be the sheer size of the group, spanning over Singapore, Malaysia, Macau, Taiwan, Canada and China and their enormous distribution network. Popular have this interesting concept called the central book clearing house strategy – big name for something simple. It is a distribution network that aims to consolidate and move books in and out of all the Popular outlets in different regions. Popular aims to achieve this by acquiring and having joint ventures with local distribution giants in their respective countries. In 2004, Popular set up a joint venture with China National Publishing industry trading corporation (CNPITC) to move books in and out of China. It’s a huge step to enter China market, knowing that CNPITC is one of 3 fully licensed book importer/exporter in China. Beginning of wal-mart, anyone?

Is there evidence that this central book clearing concept works? The gross profit margins increased steadily over the years, so it could be this cost-effective way of distribution that contributed to this.


Another possible source of economic moat could lie in the strong brand name. From my humble field experience, I can tell you the first thing people want to purchase ANYTHING to do with school, the first name that comes in mind is popular. They sell packets of cheap stationery, files, TYS, assessments and all the basic necessity of school life. Scores of parents will throw to the admin staff their school book list for the new academic year. So go to any outlet during December and January, you’ll see what I mean.


While there’s no doubt that Popular has a certain level of protection that keeps competitors away, I hesitant to think that Popular has a strong economic moat, given the decreasing margins and returns. Are the profit margins sustainable? Maybe not… yet. If I want to get into this company, I’ll have a bigger margin of safety because of this perceived lack of a strong competitive edge.

Growth


Turnover is increasing year by year, with the % increase yoy falling, which is totally acceptable. I don’t expect the turnover to keep increasing at the same rate as that 10 years ago – pretty unreasonable. It worries me a little if over the next few years, I do not see any increase in turnover growth %- could be a sign of stale sales growth. Nevertheless, a 8-year average for revenue growth of 10% is still pretty good. However, looking at earnings growth, it’s a different story. EPS is a little more volatile, fluctuating between 2 to 3 cts, with 8-year average EPS growth of 3%.

-------------
Something wrong with the chart. I realised on 7th sept, 2008, from Decarn that the 3-year average is actually my 2-year average. My apologies...
------------

A 3% earnings growth averaged over 8 years, isn’t that mediocre? I find it hard to fathom why the earnings is only growing at 3% while turnover is growing at 10%. This is exactly the same story when we look at net margins, ROA and ROE – it shows a decreasing trend, so despite the higher and higher turnover, it doesn’t translate into higher earnings.

Now that's something we have to worry about.



Breaking up the business into segments, we see a growth in the retail and distribution segment over the years while a decrease in the publishing/e-learning segment. Profit before tax clearly shows the trend in the two business segment. The drop in publishing/e-learning segment is most likely due to the high development cost and publication cost associated with new syllabus changes in Hong Kong. With the entry in new markets, development cost in course content would erode away publishing earnings. Really hope to see their publishing/e-learning sector up, as I believe this is the recession proof contributor. Even if times are bad, textbooks and educational materials still have to be used – that is my humble beliefs. As such, Popular entry into textbook market (esp pre-school and primary school) in other countries is a very wise decision. They had penetrated close to 70% of pre-school and 50% of primary textbook market in Hong Kong, very commendable. Not resting on their laurels, Popular also set up 15 tutorial centres in Taiwan where Popular’s own publications are adopted. They believed in 3 years time (by 2009), rewards would be reaped. I shall wait for them to prove it.

Popular growth story should be something like this: It managed to sell a lot of goods and services over the years, and this is a good thing. To make better use of the considerable development cost in developing good content for their publications, they are trying to introduce the books to other countries - and they did find out that it can be done. From my own point of view, Popular is trying to spread their pre-school materials over as many places as possible since the development charges are the same - this will spread out their cost and hopefully increase their earnings. It's wise not to do the same for secondary and above because there are different standards to adhere for secondary school materials and so the cost to develop so many contents over so many countries will be too prohibitive to even start it.

Pre-school syllabus are free and open-ended. Secondary school and above syllabus are regulated and subject to changes every few years (meaning development cost in content every few years). A smart management will enter pre-school market, capitalise on our strong primary school education materials (our primary school materials are the best in the world) and keep secondary and above materials in local context. That is exactly what they are doing. Nobody in the right mind will focus on higher levels of education, because there simply isn't a market - while everyone have to go pre-school and primary schoool, the education system will filter out people as we get higher and higher.

Possible growth story in pre-school textbook. Other than that, it's not my idea of a sustainable growth, unless their central house clearing concept makes it so cost-effective that it weeds out other publishers. Remains to be seen, of course.

Popular is going into property too. They purchased 2 residential properties, namely 1 Robin and 18 Shelford Road for development of up-market residential units. They are looking into commercial property and for future potential self-use. This is something totally new to diversify their business. Do what you do best, in my opinion.

Profitability

Take a look at these two table. The first one on top shows the ROA, ROE and net margins over the years. The second one below shows each item on the income statement as a % of revenue.



As I said before, it's good that popular did not have a year where it does not have positive earnings, despite being around for so long in good and bad times. Asset turnover increases very slightly, nothing to worry about over there.

One thing that shocks me is the high COGS of the Popular. Isn't it a bit high at 80% over? If they can find some way to reduce this cost, their margins will be improved tremendously. From this, I can say that either the industry have very high cost of goods sold, or Popular need to control the costs of their production. Could it be that Popular have no pricing power over their goods and services rendered?


Though COGS is high relative to turnover, it had been steadily decreasing over the years. I think there is one main reason for this - their central book clearing strategy. It serves two purposes - firstly is to distribute books that they had spend development cost on to other countries, to 'recycle' their materials sold, and secondly, to make it more cost effective to distribute their goods to different countries.

Gross margin seems to be increasing from 2003 to 2007 as a result of this cost cutting. I do not have data for the gross margins before 2003. But net margins since 1999 is dropping. Conflicting information. But to me, the bottom line wins - if net margins isn't good (4.3% averaged over 9 yrs) and shows trend of decreasing, that is all that matters. The profitability record of Popular, while in the black and shows no real signs of concern of being in the red anytime, isn't bad but it stops short of being fantastic.

Financial health

Below shows Popular's financial bill of health.


The figures for Debt to equities is slightly different from the official figures because I used shareholder's equities as opposed to total equities in my calculation. Debt to equity is pretty low and is dropping over the years, so it's a good sign. EBIT is more than sufficient to cover interest payments an average of 30 times (5 yr average), so it's very okay. Current ratio and quick ratio is also very steady over the years, absolutely no cause of concern at all. Financial leverage of roughly 2 times is considered reasonable, meaning that for every $1 worth of assets, another $1 is borrowed - not excessively leveraged.

Cash to total assets (my own ratio, haha) is quite strong at around 20 plus %, indicating that Popular is far from insolvency. Their free cash flow to turnover % is high also, so it isn't a cause for concern yet again. We can see that Popular is past the growth phase, considering that it has such a high percentage of assets as cash. This is cash sitting around, so I guess the management do not have a better use of it right now. Dividend is pretty consistent, around 40% of net profit given off as dividend, amounting to around 1.2 cts per share for most years.

A clean bill of health for Popular.

Risks/bear case

With appreciating SGD to HKD, their revenues earned in HKD might not contribute as much as they would have like. However, Popular does not deal with derivative foreign exchange contracts to hedge its foreign currency risk, so no big fx losses like those of Sembmarine happening. Popular is exposed to fx risk from HKD, M'sia Ringgit, Chinese renminbi, New taiwanese dollar and canadian dollars.

There is also project risk involved in their developing of course content for the textbook markets. The risk is that they might not recoup their development cost in time if the changes in the syllabus takes place faster than anticipated. But as long as they stay close to the pre-school market, should be pretty okay (so far no or not much regulation).

Their venture into property market - hmm, I don't know why they are doing this. Do they have the expertise to do that? They bought in when the market is high, so it remains to be seen if their investment into property development turns out to be a wise choice or not. Maybe they are sourcing out another way to increase their growth.

Management

I admit honestly that I'm lacking in analyzing the management. But let's give it a try.

Firstly, I'm not sure if this is common - the CEO and the chairman of the board of directors is the same person - the son of the founder of Popular - Mr Chou Cheng Ngok. They stated on their code of corporate governance that this is to "ensure that the decision-making process of the Group would not be unnecessarily hindered". Hindered by what, may I ask? Their board is made up of 2 executive directors and 3 non-executive directors, 2 of whom are independent. The other non-executive director is the son of the CEO/chairman, Mr Wayne Chou, who also sits on the renumeration committee. It's important in this kind of situation to sit in the AGM to have a feel of the power sharing between the directors in the board, as there might exists a possible conflict of interest. The independent directors must be vocal and steadfast enough to voice out their views as the usual checking mechanism of the board of directors on the CEO is missing here.

The directors' fee is not stated explicitly (nothing wrong with that), but the CEO/chairman has 2% of his pay as director's fees, 25% as salary, 57% as bonus/profit share and 16% benefits-in-kind. I thought it's quite good to have most of the pay as bonus/profit sharing, instead of salary. This would push the CEO harder to work towards the benefit of the company. However, since Popular's chairman of the board and CEO is the same person, nothing much to say on this already. I wonder what's the benefits-in-kind that of the the directors have. It's not stated anywhere. I want to find out how much the CEO and other directors are getting in terms of bonus and profit share.

It is stated that the Group does not have any share scheme in place. I take it that Popular do not give share options to employees.

Valuation

This really kills me. Trying to juggle around and find fault in my excel spreadsheet because I was getting ridiculous values like $560 per share (I made a mistake in turnover - per $million instead of $thousands). I even have to look at fishman's blog for some clues as to the process of valuation. I gave up trying to use free cash flow because the value I get is too crazy ($200 per share if you want to know). This is totally a GIGO effort - garbage in garbage out.

Since this is essentially a GIGO effort, I made some creative solutions to the model. Instead of using a one off % to determine the growth in operating income, I used a couple of ratios to help me. This is what I did:

1. I noticed that the turnover per year is growing pretty consistently, so I did a linear regression and I end up with a correlation coefficient of 0.9966 (the closer it is to 1, the more linear the data is), which confirms my observation. So, I found the equation of the turnover to years and spread it out over 10 years.

2. From previous crunching, the free cashflow (FCF) to turnover had an average of 12.7%, so I changed turnover to FCF by multiplying 0.127 by turnover.

3. Next I found out that the operating income over the years is about 35% of free cash flow, so I converted FCF to operating income by multiplying it 0.35 by FCF.

4. After that, it's the same old stuff for discounted model and I end up with a per share value of Popular as 0.830. Since this model is GIBO, I used a high margin of 40% and arrive at an safety value of 0.330.


At today's close of 0.305, it is undervalued according to my GIGO model by around 8%.

Technical Analysis



Long term chart (2000 till 2007) of Popular doesn't good at all. There is a very important and strong dynamic resistance line (red line) that always prevent upside movement of Popular. This resistance line, together with 2 support lines at 0.385 and 0.300 forms a descending triangle - a pattern with bearish tendency. The first descending triangle, developed from 2004 to end 2006 had already been validated after breaking support at 0.385. There is a downside target of 0.270 for this.

Another medium term triangle, formed from the start of this year, is materializing now. Support is around 0.295, so once broken, a downside target of 0.215 is there. Short term, popular seems to have rebound but will definitely test 0.300/0.295 support level again. By extrapolating the resistance line, the two lines of the triangle will converge - pointing to a time period somewhere in the middle of next year 2008. By then, we will see if Popular will pierce through the support level or not.

Conclusion

With a healthy cash flow, good debts to equity ratio, Popular has a clean bill of financial health. It is not excessively geared too, so it should be able to withstand bad economic seasons. The growth isn't exciting, neither is it stagnant, and this can be seen as Popular finds new ways to expand its old business and go into newer ones. However, while turnover is increasing steadily, the earnings, ROE and net margins isn't. This is the thing that I worry most - what's wrong? I would say that Popular is a slow and steady stock to invest in, but don't expect too much out of it. If it pays a good dividend, it might even be a rather defensive stock. There's no coverage for this company by analyst - probably Popular isn't that popular anymore.

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This is a pivotal moment in my education in being a value investor. A whole new way of looking at business is now opened to me. I spend a tough one week digesting the annual reports and thinking about the business of popular, instead of the price. This is my thesis on Popular - my hardwork and learning all condensed into one.

Feel free to criticise it, I'll try my best to answer :)

Sunday, December 02, 2007

HSBC dividend

Just received a letter from POEMS telling me about the procedure and fees to receive cash or script dividend for my HK stock - HSBC.

Book close date: 23 Nov 2007
Cash dividend per share: Approximately HKD 1.326
Reinvestment price: Not yet confirmed
Max entitlement to new share dividend: Book close quantity x appr HKD 1326/Reinvestment price

Should I take up the script dividend option, I will be charged:

1. HK collection fee of 0.5% of total dividend amount
2. HKD 2.5 per lot
3. PSPL handling fee of $10 plus 7% GST - a total of SGD 10.70

I have to state my written decision clearly (there is a form to check the option you want) and return the form to POEMS by 13th December 2007. If they did not receive confirmation by me, then the default option is to receive all dividend in cash. I understand this once sent, this option will be the standing instructions for the optional dividend of HSBC until I opt out from it by either emailing at custody@phillip.com.sg or write in to the company address.

Not sure if the reinvestment price is the average closing price of the last five days prior to XD or the average close of the first 5 days on and after CD. Let's assume it's the last 5 days before XD - it's 131.64.

Since I have 1 lot = 400 shares, if I accept the cash dividend, I'll get HKD 530.40 = SGD 99.48 (based on exchange rate of 0.18755). If I want the script dividend, I'll get 4 new shares (530.40/131.64, assuming reinvestment price of 131.64, then rounded down). Further more, I need to pay HKD 2.652 collection fee (0.5/100 x 530.4) and HKD 2.50 (based on 2.50 per lot - dunno pay for what) plus another PSPL handling fee of SGD 10.70.

That works out to be a total of HKD 5.152 = SGD 0.966 + another SGD 10.70, a grand total of SGD 11.67! Wah, like that eat up almost 12% of my dividend already. I think I should get more HSBC shares to average down by cost, otherwise really not worth it.

If I own 1 lot, my cost of script dividend is 12% of dividend
If I own 2 lots, my cost is 6.4%
3 lots, cost is 4.6%
4 lots, cost is 3.7%
5 lots, cost is 3.1%

I think optimally, 2 lots to 3 lots is reasonable, bringing down the cost of having script dividend at 4.6 to 6.4%. I would prefer to lower it down to near 3% with a total of 5 lots, but as it is, this will have to wait, haha :)

I think i'll go for the script dividend. Never mind the cost, I'll try to lower that down by buying more lots. I prefer to compound it with them then taking the dividend out. Okay, that should do it.

Singpost chart is shown below:

Price fell to 38.2% fibo retracement zone, a very good level to expect a rebound. Probably going to get more singpost at 1.08/1.09 level, see if I can get it tmr. The price is around 1.12 before pre-close matching brought it down to 1.09. Let's see how tmr. Getting interesting :)

Friday, November 30, 2007

STI up another 1.24%

Dow was still up last night and the party goes on. STI went up another 43 pts (1.24%) to close at 3521 with a volume of almost 2 billion. All the biggies moved up - SGX, DBS, Cosco...could it be that funds are buying up now to window dress their portfolio for the next year? Possibility is there.

A lot of funny stuff happened towards market close. Sudden whack up and whack down to change the closing price - almost as if the BBs are trying to making the candlestick nice, haha! I saw that happening to singpost, cosco, swiber at least. Very interesting :)

Some news to share:

1. Pac andes secretaries resigned. I don't think that's very important to shareholders - it's not as if the CFO resigned. A matter of formality I suppose.

2. Popular is going to release 2H FY08 on 10th Dec. Going to be interesting as I'm doing an FA on it right now. I'm around 50% done so I'll probably post early part of next week, so stay tuned!

3. Lian beng is going to do a share placement of 35 million shares at 0.68. These days, construction companies did a lot of shares placement, possibly to fund their projects these few years. Tsk tsk, don't like it. Lian beng is going to face some selling pressure at 0.68.

Dow is strong, up 147 pts (1.11%) now. Haha, don't be so happy, take this rally as a chance to off load. Don't buy impulsively!

Portfolio loss: -$860

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Singpost at $1.090 is so so tempting!!

Thursday, November 29, 2007

STI up 3.22%

STI did a superb move upwards today, after a very good showing by Dow last night. Dow was up 331 pts (2.55%), and today STI followed it to close up 108.5 pts (3.22%) at 3478 with a volume of 1.78 billion. I've not seen STI rallied up so fiercely for some time already - but it's true that STI is getting more and more volatile nowadays, almost mirroring the crazy HSI volatility.

All it takes is the 2nd in command from FED to say a sentence - that FED should be more nimble and not let the economy suffer in order to punish the speculators. That's enough to push Dow up so much and consequently the rest of the bourses.

Technically, I don't like the many gaps that form as we move up and down. Gaps just show how impulsive buyers are, can't wait to enter and ride the momentum. With today's rally, STI broke ema200 days resistance at around 3420. What I hope to see is that this resistance becomes the new found support level for STI while waiting to clear the next resistance at ema 20 days - 3480 thereabout. The testing of support is important - we could be in turning up already from the fresh selling last few weeks.

On weekly charts, STI tested ema 50w, a very important support level for STI, considering that it always rebound up from it. This important support level had been tested 3 times since 2005 - once in Oct 05, another in June 06 and lastly in August 07. We're now at this level - can it serve as a support again? I'll say highly likely. Ah, but the question is how high will we go this time?

Yongnam rose up 11% today, the rights was up 43%. Construction was suddenly up. This was followed by Lian Beng's trading halt. Construction contracts coming? Let's see if they will announce more details tmr.

My internet is too shaky for me to blog more. Better post it up first.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Volatility of STI

I was haunted by the image of a picture in market uncle's blog. Not it wasn't particularly scary, but the image sort of got stuck in my mind's eye and I seriously need to exorcise it out. Research shows that if one is feeling down or happy, one just have to work on some maths or logical problems - it'll bring the level of serotonin to neutral level so that one does not feel happier nor sad. I've tried it before, it works very well. Try Sudoko next time you're feeling unhappy.

For me, I need to work out some maths as I couldn't quite resist lure of the data tempting me to find out more about them. Market uncle did a pretty good collection of the data which enabled me to compute a little bit more stuff about them. The data collect are the percentage daily closing of STI from April 1985 to October 2007 - pretty nasty bit.

As the data are classed, I need to find the class mark to be able to estimate the sample mean and sample variance. For the daily % change of the extreme ends, "above 20%" and "below -20%", I take the class mark conservatively as 20 and -20 respectively. I do not know the extreme upper and lower limit of the daily % change but I figured that it is immaterial as the frequency of those 2 classes are very small, so it shouldn't skew the mean too much. Here's my table:

I computed the summation of x, summation of x² and total frequency of data collected. Since the sample size is huge (5719, mind you), it's very safe to assume that central limit theorem holds. As such, I would take it that the daily % change of STI follows a normal distribution. Let's find the sample mean and variance, and ultimately the standard deviation for this distribution.


Getting interesting huh? The daily % change of STI follows a normal distribution with mean of 0.039% and with a standard deviation of 1.379%. What does that mean? It means that statistically, STI have a mean volatility of about 0.04%, with an 'spread' of about ± 1.38%. To be more precise, we can find out the confidence interval of finding the mean, given a probability of locating the mean.

I'll give a few confidence interval to illustrate:

1. There is a 99% probability of the mean daily % change of STI lying between -0.01% and 0.09%
2. There is a 90% probability of the mean daily % change of STI lying between 0.01% and 0.07%
3. There is a 80% probability of the mean daily % change of STI lying between 0.02% and 0.06%

This is all well and good until one realise that the spread of ± 1.4% basically means that knowing the mean doesn't mean a thing (haha!) because the standard deviation (measures the spread or uncertainty) is so high.

Perhaps it will be even more interesting to find out if periods of high volatility, as predicted by daily % change, will cluster together. According to autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH for short) model by Engle (1982), the volatility is a function of previous volatility and the mean volatility.

Future volatility = f (past volatility, mean volatility)

This models predicts that volatility tends to occur in clusters and they tend to mean revert. Mean reversion means that the property will go back to the mean value. This coincides with my own market experience. I remember that last year, the volatility of STI is very quite low, if we see a rise or drop of 20 pts it's a big hoo-ha already. This low volatility period lasts for quite a while until this year, where I see big swings of ±1 to 2%. HSI is even more volatile, swinging wildly ± 1000 pts. And boy do these periods of high volatility cluster together.

If you know bollinger band, one of the technical indicators, it basically set up a trading rule based on the transitional moment between clusters of high and low volatility. 'Bollinger squeeze' is where the two bands tighten (volatility drops) around the price range. At the critical point, the price breaks out of the band, resulting in a huge change in price (up or down, we have to look at other indicators for the direction) and subsequently huge increase in volatility. We can also make use of the idea that volatility tends to mean-revert to trade based on bollinger band. If it hits the top band, price tend to mean revert and correct, thus moving down. If it hits the lower band, price will mean-revert and move up - creating an overbought/oversold kind of signal.

Haha, enough crap for now :) I explored a few concepts today :)

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STI was pretty flat; it closed down 3 pts at 3369 with a volume of 1.5 billion. Pretty quiet day, nothing much happened.

Just a news to share:

1. Tiong woon was awarded service contract for shell houdini project to provide project cargoes trucking, heavy haulage, storage and marine transportation services. They didn't state the contract value. This stock is heavily beaten down, so will this provide the catalyst for it to move?

Dow futures up +70.