If you buy in at 1.12 for example, you would easily have made 0.05 cts, about 4.5% off this arbitrade. This doesn't even include the dividend (from July to Dec 2015) that is going to be declared, which amounts to about 0.03, bringing the total reward to 0.08 cts, or 7.1%. And quite possibly, there should be another partial dividends from Jan 2016 to whatever date that Saizen assets are scheduled to be sold. So the important question is, if we choose to arbritrade, are we the smart ones or are we the suckers? Is there something they know that we don't?
|I didn't know Saizen also represent the best, or forefront, in Japanese|
Let's see what's the risk involved here. I think the primary risk is that the deal will not go through, and it's really not a done deal yet, though it's a fairly confirmed one since the management of Saizen had accepted an offer already. As such, the longer this drags, the higher the risk of the deal not going through. The deal is conditional upon a few things, but I think the most important ones are (1) approval by SGX and MAS and (2) the approval of unit holders. I don't think both are serious issues, especially the second point. The offer is ridiculously generous, considering that the stock is lingering about 0.8+, which is way below NAV. The unit holders should be jumping for joy at having such so many years of income all squeezed into one.
The secondary risk is how this is going to benefit unit holders. Technically, after Saizen sells off their assets, they will be loaded with cash and with no real business. It's stated that the manager will distribute the net proceeds from the deal to unit holders as soon as practicable through a special distribution. They will cease to be a reit and should likely choose to delist. Could it be possible that they will change their mind and choose to invest or acquire other business, change its name and still operate as a company? If that's the case, the unit holders of Saizen reit will not get the full 1.17 per share. Perhaps a fraction of it or none at all. There's a lot of uncertainties here, but this will be set out in a circular that will be mailed out to unit holders soon.
Let's see who are the possible sellers of Saizen?
1. Insiders who had gotten wind of the information and bought in way before it's announced, bringing up the price from 0.8+ to 0.9+ last week. They might want to sell out to seal their profits.
2. Investors who wanted income and wanted to take the money to invest in other reit before others come crowding in. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bushes. Something like that ;)
3. People who had borrowed money to get into reits might want to sell off. If you borrow at say 5% and get into this reit at 6%, you'll get a kind of leveraged yield or a dangerous kind of passive income stream. It's like picking pennies in front of steamrollers. They would want to sell off upon such news since they are using money they don't have.
4. Blur sotongs who don't know why the price went up so high and sold off to take profit.
Are there any more reasons? Wish me luck. I'm vested as of today.