Thursday, February 16, 2012

Selling mode

Throughout the entirety of this week and last, I was trying to sell of a good part of my portfolio. I sold off all my aims before the run up and all my sabana and all my lippomall. Don't be alarmed by the word 'all' - it means different things to different people. I sold all because the amount that I had in it is not big in the first place, so it is senseless to try to earn that extra few dollars by staggering it into multiple sell batches.



As to seller's remorse, I believe it no longer plagues me. I conclude that it is essentially an emotional problem, you know, the twin forces of greed and fear. These days, I'm more emotionless regarding the market. Que sera sera, whatever will be will be, isn't that what the folk songs of old taught us so?



So what's the rationale for selling? It's just an old nagging feeling that something isn't right. I get more bearish as the market goes further up and gets more excited as it goes further down. I think that's the right kind of feeling to have, if you think about it. I can rationalise further by going into charts and all, but essentially that is just the carrots and potatoes that are served with the roast chicken. The main reason is that I don't feel good putting that much money into the market at this moment in time (I'm above 100% invested  - don't ask - before I sold off, if that's even possible). I think around 50 to 70% invested is more proper for me. But don't follow me, because if I change direction, I'm not liable to inform you and if the market rises up further, you're silly to blame it on me.



Do I always act on feelings? I think not always. But recently, I do. Newbies are not entitled to having feelings about the market, so maybe I shouldn't do that. But what am I? No longer a newbie? Or a newbie pretending not to be one? Nah, who cares....


15 comments :

Singapore Man Of Leisure said...

Feelings, nothing but feelings.

How liberating it is:

If hungry; I eat.

If tired; I rest.

If I think it may rain; mother! bring in the clothes!

LOL!

Derek said...

Hi LP,

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

I see a lot of people buying in now and I'm fearful. However, my stocks are still languishing in the pits. Hence I can only continue to build up my war chest.

Cheers!

Drizzt said...

sometimes you get the wrong vibes from the crowd. do know alot of people felt they missed this rally and are edging to get back in. that should provide the impetus to move higher.

we could be at the dawn of 1994 bull run for all that matter

Ray said...

HI,

Been reading your posts but first time posting.
I sold off my holdings too early and suffered from seller's remorse :(
But like you, I kept feeling something is wrong but so far, I've been wrong.

Suspect this to be a mere correction, bear still asleep at the moment.

I see the bull continuing to run for a while since Euro side seems to be getting their house in order barring a 180 degree turn when a new party gets voted into their parliament.

FoodieFC said...

Actually I agree with you. I am trying to get my sell order fulfilled as I am worried abt the sudden and big rise. Euro Zone is just a ticking bomb.

freemanland said...

I agree with you.

The recent bullish rally in equity market is not rational.

Absolutely no fundamental factors to support it.

financialray said...

Hi LP,

I am taking off more than 50% of my cash investments in stocks. Agree with you. Stocks may go higher. What with Ben holding QE3 as support and elections are coming for US and many European countries. But markets can turn suddenly.
What I have left is all in SRS comprising SPH and REITs. I am prepared though that if markets fall, I will buy more of these.
Overall, stocks do not form a major part of my investment. Properties make up more than 50%.

Drizzt said...

too many are confusing the politics of things and money making.

Createwealth8888 said...

So many pple here in all cash?

YJ72 said...

I had liquidated more than 50% of my equities a few months back with the view that the Euro zone situation will worsen in March. I have just attended a market outlook seminar today and they have the view that Greece seem to be decoupling from the rest and even a default will have limited damage to the world market. With so much liquidity in the market, the fund manager have to do something with their cash!

Shit!, I shouldn't have listen to the same analysts who predicted the gloom some time back. Maybe I will bet again their view this time ;)

Temperament said...

Whatever it is try to always keep 30% to 50% of your investable fund for unforeseen circumstances(Black Swan.)These fund may double-up as "Emergency Fund" if you use up your "EF". Choi! Touch wood!
Cheers!

financialray said...

Herein lies the essence of asset allocation.
If stocks continue their bull run, property market will also continue to breathe fire.
If stocks suddenly takes a nasty turn, I will be ready.
Heads I win, tails I also win.

Huat Ah.

Drizzt said...

no i see recent moves that foreigners may be leaving in droves. property prices may dive. people will be left with negative equity.

la papillion said...

Hi guys,

Sorry for the late reply. It seems that from the comments, there are a mix of bulls and bears. That's always the case isn't it? The same facts appear to us but we analyse and interpret them in our own ways, each bounded by our own baggage from the past.

I just want to add that even though I'm in a selling mode, I'm still pretty much invested. I'll likely be always 50% and above invested, as there are a few key holdings that I'm loath to sell, come what may. And these already form a bit part of the portfolio already. I'm just translating some paper money into real money where I can buy things :)

Anonymous said...

Hi LP!

I always enjoy reading your posts. Been bz with repair (pipe burst) n renovation so not been around for a while.

I am also selling! Thankfully, one company privatised but yes, surely I have to do a clean up of the messy, unmanaged portfolio of mine.

Cheers!
hh