tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post5749105703874084724..comments2024-03-29T17:14:25.039+08:00Comments on BULLy the BEAR: China milk 1Q09la papillionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-40948981617682671912008-08-20T19:23:00.000+08:002008-08-20T19:23:00.000+08:00Well, I see his interest from detailed analysis on...Well, I see his interest from detailed analysis on Pac Andes and China Fish recently. He doesn't seem to pick up more of other stocks.Sgbluechiphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070778039656838451noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-43862886508239994432008-08-19T22:40:00.000+08:002008-08-19T22:40:00.000+08:00Hi sgbluechips,Haha, mw interested in s-shares?Hi sgbluechips,<BR/><BR/>Haha, mw interested in s-shares?la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-46855044516897961652008-08-19T17:11:00.000+08:002008-08-19T17:11:00.000+08:00Hi LP, thanks for the information. China Milk's sh...Hi LP, thanks for the information. China Milk's share price is also holding up quite well despite the selldown lately. <BR/><BR/>I am starting to look at S-shares for investment after reading MW's and your blog.<BR/><BR/>Keep up the good analysis dude!Sgbluechiphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070778039656838451noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-20528881858692878042008-08-17T20:14:00.000+08:002008-08-17T20:14:00.000+08:00Hi sgbluechip,To be honest, I'm just beginning to ...Hi sgbluechip,<BR/><BR/>To be honest, I'm just beginning to understand china milk's business, despite my vested status. From what I know, they do not have a fixed dividend policy. That being said, they appear to want to give dividend. In FY08, they had to forego a dividend because they needed the cash for some capex.<BR/><BR/>You raised a good and valid concern regarding bovine diseases. Unfortunately, no, as far as I understand, their cows are all located in 17 farms but located all in Heilongjiang region. The management mentioned that the farms are located at a distance from each other to minimise the risk of spreading diseases. They did have insurance against claims arising from the cattle getting diseases.<BR/><BR/>In fact, through great luck, they managed to import canadian cows (known for their high milk yields) before china banned all imports from canada due to mad cow diseases outbreak. This gave them a monopolistic hold over other competitors as those who want to breed these type of high yield cows will have to buy the sperms/egg from them.<BR/><BR/>Should disaster strike, it might provide a very good opportunity to enter more PROVIDED that their assets are not sufficiently damaged. Well, just hope it won't come to that.la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-70816359529438115952008-08-17T19:07:00.000+08:002008-08-17T19:07:00.000+08:00Hi LP, a quick check at share investment showed th...Hi LP, a quick check at share investment showed that ChinaMilk only gave out RMB$0.05 dividend in 2007 and no dividends for FY 2006 and 2008. Not sure about their dividend policy.<BR/><BR/>Btw, are the cow farms situated in diversified regions? Was wondering if some cow flu or disease might push its share price over the edge.Sgbluechiphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070778039656838451noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-32921491053763912672008-08-16T01:07:00.000+08:002008-08-16T01:07:00.000+08:00yeah...for a moment I got a shock...haha...will no...yeah...for a moment I got a shock...haha...will not buy something so expensive in such environment...its suicidal.. :)littlecupidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18317839974994378041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-88901281201999822852008-08-15T22:43:00.000+08:002008-08-15T22:43:00.000+08:00Thks little cupid,I've made the necessary adjustme...Thks little cupid,<BR/><BR/>I've made the necessary adjustments :) Thks for your alert attention!la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-72988448084436508462008-08-15T21:43:00.000+08:002008-08-15T21:43:00.000+08:00hi :) replied your post in huatopedia, PE should b...hi :) replied your post in huatopedia, PE should be around 6+ not 16+ right :)littlecupidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18317839974994378041noreply@blogger.com