tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post4097743056007735670..comments2024-03-29T01:03:31.291+08:00Comments on BULLy the BEAR: Yongnamla papillionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-1313779660554941512008-03-01T14:24:00.000+08:002008-03-01T14:24:00.000+08:00Hello LP,2 comments on your Yongnam analysis (whic...Hello LP,<BR/><BR/>2 comments on your Yongnam analysis (which I must say is comprehensive and quite excellent !).<BR/><BR/>1) Margins for construction business have always been volatile. This is because of fluctuating material costs like sand and cement which can significantly add to the cost of a project, so budgets are quite useless unless you have a crystal ball to look into the future. This is one reason why I avoid construction - due to uncertain margins and no earnings clarity. This is just a personal view though.<BR/><BR/>2) YN had a mound of accumulated losses due to the 10-year construction slump starting from 1996 to about 2006. In fact, it was only with the announcement of the IR did construction get a jab in the arm and suddenly all construction and property companies are in the spotlight (note CSC, Lian Beng, Lum Chang etc). Thus, I feel people are getting excited even before seeing the earnings (i.e. counting the chicks before they hatch). Of course, if it's for punting it's fine; but for investing, it can be risky not knowing what you are buying and the value of the assets you are purchasing.<BR/><BR/>To end off, I feel that YN does have potential to clinch more projects; the uncertainty is how consistently it can build up its order book and its margins. These are 2 major factors which are preventing me from "leaping" into the construction industry.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-3251177495647857992008-02-28T23:28:00.000+08:002008-02-28T23:28:00.000+08:00Hi mw,Thks for even wanting to read it in the firs...Hi mw,<BR/><BR/>Thks for even wanting to read it in the first place :) Every little comment will help me get better, so pls do so when you're free :)<BR/><BR/>You might want to read a little more on Ossia, especially the comments by Yong. He's an analyst so he provided me with some good insights.<BR/><BR/>Have a good rest from your trip back, Mw :)la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-35998037487706804632008-02-28T23:17:00.000+08:002008-02-28T23:17:00.000+08:00Hi LP,Wow, a good bit of heavy analysis you did on...Hi LP,<BR/><BR/>Wow, a good bit of heavy analysis you did on your blog, and sorry I have not had time to read it as I was in China on a biz trip and only just back this evening.<BR/><BR/>But rest assured I will comment on YN, Ossia and Old Chang Kee. Just small comments since I did not have the time to run through their biz model.<BR/><BR/>As we did discuss before, time is always a problem....hahah<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.com