tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post1748577147241376150..comments2022-09-27T16:45:56.492+08:00Comments on BULLy the BEAR: DDM valuation for Blue-black Blue chipsla papillionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-89903162593897881052014-12-27T12:04:31.414+08:002014-12-27T12:04:31.414+08:00Hi la papillion,
You're right about that. Typ...Hi la papillion,<br /><br />You're right about that. Typically investors use the current dividend yield as a gauge. Probably its also good to check the track record of dividend payouts of the company itself. But I guess its still not a foolproof way of ensuring dividends can be sustained. Do visit my blog when you're free and give your feedbacks too.<br /><br />Thanks for the insight :)<br />secretinvestorshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02516160455880025991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-58870764984679606742014-12-27T11:00:17.947+08:002014-12-27T11:00:17.947+08:00Hi secretinvestors,
Haha, actually I knew about ...Hi secretinvestors, <br /><br />Haha, actually I knew about that formula, it's just that I don't know how they derived it so I didn't use it. What I did is actually the same thing as that formula, it's just that I used the 0th dividend instead of the 1st.<br /><br />But having worked out the formula, if u take dividend/price to get the yield, I now know that the yield calculated has certain assumptions that nobody talks about. It is based on a zero growth dividend model, paying the same dividend (as used in the calculation) until infinity. <br /><br />If ever the dividend changes, esp if it decreases, or if it doesn't give dividend till infinity, the valuation will fail. That's the most Impt takeaway for me :) la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-2962869822394617452014-12-27T10:26:11.973+08:002014-12-27T10:26:11.973+08:00Hi,
Nice post there regarding the DDM model :)
I ...Hi,<br />Nice post there regarding the DDM model :)<br /><br />I guess a quick way to look at this based on the 'standard' zero-growth DDM formula is probably just the dividend yield. If the rate of return required is 5%, then any dividend yield above 5% is what we want. DDM zero-growth model: Sum = D/r. Rearranging them becomes D/Sum = r. Substitute Sum with Market price and if we want a return greater than required return, it becomes D/P > r --> Dividend yield > r. <br /><br />Your conclusion about how sustainable is the dividend and whether there will be special dividends or dividends cut is very true. Great post there. Will follow your post from now :)secretinvestorshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02516160455880025991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-75184029730657539422014-12-24T13:22:26.473+08:002014-12-24T13:22:26.473+08:00Hi K,
I don't think so. You can just do it on...Hi K,<br /><br />I don't think so. You can just do it on an excel yourself? It's not that hard to track it and it allows more flexibility than any software out there, if there's any. You can check out Investment moats...he did a dividend tracker, and maybe he might have such a spreadsheet template already out.la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-59923831105562202172014-12-24T11:18:13.571+08:002014-12-24T11:18:13.571+08:00Hi,
Does anyone know if there is any "progra...Hi,<br /><br />Does anyone know if there is any "program" or "stockbroker" that tracks your stocks P/L inclusive of dividends automatically? I am using iOCBC and it just tracks your market price and buy price to give you are P/L% excluding dividends. <br /><br />Thanks.<br />KKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01096331252046081022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-31022379474976274972014-12-18T13:25:36.088+08:002014-12-18T13:25:36.088+08:00Hi Halcyon,
Well, I'm not too interested in t...Hi Halcyon,<br /><br />Well, I'm not too interested in the aviation industry...maybe you do because you're in it ;) You shld know something I don't haha<br /><br />Thanks for commenting, I don't believe I've seen you herela papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-22628681780859574702014-12-18T13:24:37.240+08:002014-12-18T13:24:37.240+08:00Hi LVP,
Haha, no comments...Hi LVP,<br /><br />Haha, no comments...la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-73234080166950583212014-12-17T11:22:37.676+08:002014-12-17T11:22:37.676+08:00IMO, your DDM for SIAEC makes the current price lo...IMO, your DDM for SIAEC makes the current price look good. However given the recent slowdown in the regional aviation MRO sector, I'm reckoning SIAEC might not be able to pay out 20 cents of dividend this year. I am guessing it will range between 16-18 cents, depending on their next 2 quarters.<br /><br />Disclosure: I'm long SIAECHalcyon Tomorrowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00668088955262278037noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-3594628148209741362014-12-16T15:59:13.568+08:002014-12-16T15:59:13.568+08:00I come in to seek opinion on today's share pri...I come in to seek opinion on today's share price of Sembcorp Marine. Like dropped substantially... what do you all think?<br /><br />Good time to enter liao bo? hee :D LVPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-61876246292653307692014-12-08T20:50:22.640+08:002014-12-08T20:50:22.640+08:00Hi M,
Thanks for your comments, very valid.
I sa...Hi M,<br /><br />Thanks for your comments, very valid.<br /><br />I saw the formula, but I don't really understand it, hence I used my own. At first, I also don't understand why using the standard formula gives $20 and not my calculated $21. But thanks to your pointers, I think I do now. As you've rightly pointed out, I calculated my first term as the 0th yr, but the standard one didn't. Thanks a lot for that :)<br /><br />And you're right. It's easier using the formula than my own, but as I've mentioned, I've problems understanding it (most sites don't derive it), so I'm hesitant to use it. <br /><br />I think a starting point is 5%. I use it for planning purpose actually. For any investment I put in, minimally I want to get is 5% (dividends + capital), hence that discount rate. We can aim higher..8%? 10%? But 5% level is what I'll be looking at. If the price falls cheaper than that, I know I'll be hitting at least my min.<br /><br />la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-42431307988021811562014-12-08T20:43:20.463+08:002014-12-08T20:43:20.463+08:00Hi SMK,
Thanks :) That's how I understand of ...Hi SMK,<br /><br />Thanks :) That's how I understand of the DDM, haha <br /><br />Then I should highlight them here again:<br /><br />"So how sure are you of getting the 40 cts dividend? That's the ultimate question."la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-15292358643461145502014-12-08T18:09:32.036+08:002014-12-08T18:09:32.036+08:00Hi,
1. For DDM, the formula is always D1/(r-g). ...Hi,<br /><br />1. For DDM, the formula is always D1/(r-g). For your ACME example, Sum = 0.1/(0.05-0) = $2. If you plus D0 = $1, you get the same $21. This formula is easier to calculate than your example..<br /><br />2. IMHO, we should expect more than a 5% returns in investing the stocks that you mentioned.<br /><br />Just some comments.<br /><br />MAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-23700733311704788952014-12-08T17:50:40.321+08:002014-12-08T17:50:40.321+08:00Kudos on using something a secondary school studen...Kudos on using something a secondary school student can understand. :)<br /><br />I guess most readers will miss out on the importance of the last 2 sentences.SMKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10968938425811827200noreply@blogger.com