tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post8063348741137038027..comments2024-03-29T01:03:31.291+08:00Comments on BULLy the BEAR: The Black Swan – Nassim Nicolas Talebla papillionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-4575508093487581812008-10-13T11:50:00.000+08:002008-10-13T11:50:00.000+08:00Hi La PapillionI've written my review of Nassim Ni...Hi La Papillion<BR/><BR/>I've written my review of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "The Black Swan"<BR/><BR/>http://fivecentstencents.com/2008/10/12/how-to-avoid-getting-killed-by-a-black-swan/<BR/><BR/>Thanks for reviewing the book earlier so that it made me want to read it. One of the top reads for 2008 for me IMHO. :-)<BR/><BR/>Be well and prosper.PanzerGrenadierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15836438378215893219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-90098283228167378792008-07-03T22:53:00.000+08:002008-07-03T22:53:00.000+08:00LP,you're too kind!looking forward to more article...LP,<BR/>you're too kind!<BR/>looking forward to more articles on the black swan. thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-27685430941522471822008-07-03T00:52:00.000+08:002008-07-03T00:52:00.000+08:00Hi wisdomw,Yea, I totally agree. How to be wary of...Hi wisdomw,<BR/><BR/>Yea, I totally agree. How to be wary of the risk that one knows nothing about? How to be careful of the unknown unknowns? It's a fool's errand.la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-52845247605301903852008-07-03T00:46:00.000+08:002008-07-03T00:46:00.000+08:00I recommend this book: Traders, guns and money. Th...I recommend this book: Traders, guns and money. <BR/><BR/>This is another great book, read it, you will not regret.Financial Journalisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06490416137194206916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-90102463679393388422008-07-03T00:20:00.000+08:002008-07-03T00:20:00.000+08:00Hi LP, Read "Fooled by Randomness", ironically pic...Hi LP, <BR/><BR/>Read "Fooled by Randomness", ironically picked it up randomly from the library. <BR/><BR/>Was just thinking about the increasing demand for "risk managers" in fund houses after the credit crisis. <BR/><BR/>Based on statistical extrapolation, the safest point for these guys was the moment before the credit crisis. <BR/><BR/>I think it would be insane to accept such an impossible job...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-75091892542576514492008-07-02T10:19:00.000+08:002008-07-02T10:19:00.000+08:00Hi PG,I've been an avid reader of your blog too :)...Hi PG,<BR/><BR/>I've been an avid reader of your blog too :) Thks for your kind comments! I'll add you in my links :)la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-39984539801603246672008-07-02T08:29:00.000+08:002008-07-02T08:29:00.000+08:00Hi La PapillonYou have made me hunger for this boo...Hi La Papillon<BR/><BR/>You have made me hunger for this book. :-)<BR/><BR/>A exceptional book review as you have summarised it very simply for us on what the book is about and added your own views on how it helped you. <BR/><BR/>Would you like to do a link exchange with my blog? We are both featured on thefinance.sg but I'd like to do link building with like-minded fellow personal finance and investment bloggers in the Lion City. ;-)<BR/><BR/>Panzer<BR/><BR/>P.S. I like your humour too...PanzerGrenadierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15836438378215893219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-64758255012852985772008-07-02T01:23:00.000+08:002008-07-02T01:23:00.000+08:00Hi durio,He doesn't have theorems in the books. He...Hi durio,<BR/><BR/>He doesn't have theorems in the books. He's just taking a book to discuss on the logic errors and about people being fooled by randomness. <BR/><BR/>Was it useful? It is, tremendously. It opened my eyes to another world, a world where it's okay to say 'I don't know' and a world not bounded by (illusory) certainties. To follow his ideas is to be skeptical of the certainties of theories and principals, to let empirical data form your own framework of how the world works.<BR/><BR/>It is philosophically life changing for me.<BR/><BR/>Let me comment more about how I find his book useful for myself in my future blog articles. It'll be more respectful to you (after you had spent effort in writing so much) than giving some touch-and-go comments here.la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-79551272888144951442008-07-02T01:14:00.000+08:002008-07-02T01:14:00.000+08:00Hi little,Hoho! Dun be fooled by me :) My age is t...Hi little,<BR/><BR/>Hoho! Dun be fooled by me :) My age is the product of 5 and the square root of the product of 18 and the smallest prime number :) I had the misfortune of nearly becoming a phD, hoho!<BR/><BR/>Thks for your kind comments :)la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-19789472068126317762008-07-02T00:38:00.000+08:002008-07-02T00:38:00.000+08:00thanks for the review, i have been wanting to borr...thanks for the review, i have been wanting to borrow from library (without much success). <BR/><BR/>it seems so hard to grasp! And are his theorems gives useful application in daily life? sorry, I don't see much usefulness. maybe I'm blinded by theoretical framework as well?<BR/><BR/>anyway, just sharing my mediocre thoughts & trying to relate what already existed for so long. <BR/><BR/>1. Make a distinction between positive black swans and negative black swans<BR/>...........<BR/>if you short on bear, long on bull - you will ultimately benefit. so essentially just need to be at the right side at right time?<BR/><BR/>2. Invest in preparedness, not in prediction<BR/>.............<BR/>I think he did mention about putting more in predictable funds (bonds etc) while putting some in speculative ventures (options). Well, that's similar to our basic Asset Allocation doesn't it? i.e to spread our risk which also prepared us for the unpredictable future<BR/><BR/>3. Seize any opportunity, even those that looks like opportunity.<BR/>...........<BR/>hmm ... i thought this is obvious? of coz we will need to apply "margin of safety" when assessing opportunities.<BR/><BR/>4. When caught between unknown probabilities of choices presented to you, focus on the (known) consequences of each choice and not on the probabilities<BR/>........<BR/>well, this akin to saying when future becomes uncertain, move all money into saving account :)<BR/><BR/>oh boy, i read that he did provoke a lot of people! LOLzAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37872616.post-15499927318811933422008-07-01T23:52:00.000+08:002008-07-01T23:52:00.000+08:00Wow you seem like a really profound person. Are yo...Wow you seem like a really profound person. Are you a professor? May I ask how old are you? <BR/><BR/>Btw I love your blog! There's so much to learn from you. Pls keep blogging :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com